São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série B — October 24, 2026

← Brasileirão Série B

Brasileirão Série B · Regular Season - 35 October 24, 2026 21:30 Estadio Primeiro de Maio, San Bernado do Campo

São Bernardo

#11 · 49 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Vila Nova

#3 · 62 pts

Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva (ast. Fabrício Daniel) 6'

Rodrigo Ferreira 90'+6

Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque 90'+11

2' (ast. Higor Meritão) Janderson

49' Everton Galdino

Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vila Nova a 41% win probability (draw 27%, São Bernardo 30%). The final result was São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova. In 1 previous meetings, São Bernardo have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Vila Nova.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.55

Actual xG

1.95

Saves

65%

Possession

35%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

ast. Higor Meritão · Janderson⚽

⚽Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva · ast. Fabrício Daniel

49'

Everton Galdino⚽

↕ Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva / Foguinho

57'

59'

Hayner

61'

Igor Cariús / Marquinhos Gabriel ↕

↕ Fabrício Daniel / Hyoran

65'

↕ Marcão Silva / Daniel Amorim

66'

Guilherme Augusto Alves Dellatorre / Higor Meritão ↕

66'

Willian Maranhão / André Luís ↕

↕ Lucas Fernandes / Breno Ruan Melo Almeida

67'

76'

Willian Prado Camargo / Everton Galdino ↕

76'

Nathan Camargo / João Pedro Vieira ↕

↕ Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes / Daniel Davi Simão Roque

79'

Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque

88'

⚽Rodrigo Ferreira

90'+6

Foguinho

90'+9

90'+10

Igor Cariús

⚽Eduardo·da Silva Albuquerque

90'+11

Pre-match prediction

30.73%

São ←

27.95%

41.32%

Vila

we assigned to the actual result (São Bernardo) 30.73% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

São

0.95

1.55

+0.6

Vila

1.24

1.95

+0.71

Vila Nova dominated by xG (1.95 vs 1.55). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Novorizontino	35	64
2	Juventude	35	64
3	Vila Nova	35	62
4	Fortaleza EC	35	61
5	Criciuma	35	59
6	CRB	35	55
7	Sport Recife	35	54
8	Atletico Goianiense	35	54
9	Goias	35	52
10	Operario-PR	35	51
11	São Bernardo	35	49
12	Botafogo SP	35	47
13	Cuiaba	35	47
14	Athletic Club	35	44
15	Nautico Recife	35	43
16	Ceara	35	43
17	Avai	35	37
18	Londrina	35	32
19	America Mineiro	35	23
20	Ponte Preta	35	15

Lineups

São Bernardo 5-4-1

Alex Alves G 6.27

Pará D 6.44

Luizão D 6.79

Jemerson D 6.59

Marcão 66' D 6.68

Rodrigo Ferreira 1 ⚽ D 7.25

Pedrinho 79' M 6.38

Eduardo 1 ⚽ M 8.20

Lucas Lima 1 ⚽ 57' M 6.88

Lucas Fernandes 67' M 6.49

Fabrício Daniel 1 👟 65' F 6.80

Bench

Augusto D 0.00

Breninho 23' M 6.06

Daniel Amorim 24' F 6.57

D. Davi 11' F 7.10

Echaporã F 0.00

Foguinho 33' M 6.65

Hélder D 0.00

Hugo Sanches D 0.00

Hyoran 25' M 6.14

Júnior Oliveira G 0.00

Mário Sérgio D 0.00

Vila Nova 4-2-3-1

Helton Leite G 5.83

Higor D 6.41

Douglas Mendes D 6.49

Jonathan Costa D 6.38

Hayner 59' D 4.86

Higor Meritão 1 👟 66' M 7.10

João Vieira 76' M 6.21

Janderson 1 ⚽ M 6.86

Marquinhos Gabriel 61' M 6.61

Everton Galdino 1 ⚽ 76' M 7.22

André Luís 66' F 6.45

Bench

Anderson D 0.00

Dalberson G 0.00

Dellatorre 24' F 6.20

Dodô M 0.00

Emerson Urso F 0.00

Igor Cariús 29' D 5.58

Lincoln F 0.00

Nathan Camargo 14' M 5.80

Ryan Lima F 0.00

Tiago Pagnussat D 0.00

Willian Maranhão 24' M 5.87

Best on the pitch

Eduardo

M · São

8.20

1 ⚽

3 shots · 101 pass

Rodrigo Ferreira

D · São

7.25

1 ⚽

1 shots · 46 pass

Everton Galdino

M · Vila

7.22

1 ⚽

2 shots · 18 pass

Higor Meritão

M · Vila

7.10

1 👟

1 shots · 33 pass

D. Davi

F · São

7.10

· 10 pass

Lucas Lima

M · São

6.88

1 ⚽

1 shots · 22 pass

São Bernardo — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Alex Alves	G	90	6.27	—	—	0	23	21%	0	—	—
Pará	D	90	6.44	—	—	0	55	47%	0	—	—
Luizão	D	90	6.79	—	—	0	73	64%	0	—	—
Jemerson	D	90	6.59	—	—	2	71	65%	1	—	—
Marcão	D	66	6.68	—	—	0	44	39%	2	—	—
Rodrigo Ferreira	D	90	7.25	1	—	1	46	42%	2	—	—
Pedrinho	M	79	6.38	—	—	4	33	28%	1	—	—
Eduardo	M	90	8.20	1	—	3	101	91%	2	1	—
Lucas Lima	M	57	6.88	1	—	1	22	15%	0	—	—
Lucas Fernandes	M	67	6.49	—	—	0	26	22%	1	—	—
Fabrício Daniel	F	65	6.80	—	1	0	16	10%	0	—	—
Breninho	M	23	6.06	—	—	0	15	13%	1	—	—
Daniel Amorim	F	24	6.57	—	—	0	3	3%	0	—	—
D. Davi	F	11	7.10	—	—	0	10	10%	0	—	—
Foguinho	M	33	6.65	—	—	2	30	29%	0	1	—
Hyoran	M	25	6.14	—	—	2	17	15%	0	—	—

Vila Nova — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Helton Leite	G	90	5.83	—	—	0	37	17%	0	—	—
Higor	D	90	6.41	—	—	2	42	38%	1	—	—
Douglas Mendes	D	90	6.49	—	—	0	44	39%	2	—	—
Jonathan Costa	D	90	6.38	—	—	0	28	24%	0	—	—
Hayner	D	59	4.86	—	—	1	19	14%	1	—	1
Higor Meritão	M	66	7.10	—	1	1	33	29%	2	—	—
João Vieira	M	76	6.21	—	—	0	35	32%	0	—	—
Janderson	M	90	6.86	1	—	6	21	13%	1	—	—
Marquinhos Gabriel	M	61	6.61	—	—	0	21	19%	0	—	—
Everton Galdino	M	76	7.22	1	—	2	18	15%	0	—	—
André Luís	F	66	6.45	—	—	1	11	9%	0	—	—
Dellatorre	F	24	6.20	—	—	0	4	2%	0	—	—
Igor Cariús	D	29	5.58	—	—	0	1	1%	1	1	—
Nathan Camargo	M	14	5.80	—	—	0	2	1%	0	—	—
Willian Maranhão	M	24	5.87	—	—	0	3	2%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?

The final score was São Bernardo 3–2 Vila Nova.

What did the model predict before São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?

The model assigned 30% probability to a São Bernardo win, 27% to a draw, and 41% to an Vila Nova win.