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Sao Paulo - Boca Juniors

Copa Sudamericana September 16, 2026 02:30
Sao Paulo
#1 · 12 pts
vs
Boca Juniors
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.7%
Win
Sao Paulo
33.11%
Draw
28.19%
Win
Boca Juniors
1.01
Expected xG
0.72

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (16.06%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 33%
2 28%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 61%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 34%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Sao Paulo a 38% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 28% for Boca Juniors. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sao Paulo and 0.7 for Boca Juniors (total 1.7), with a 63% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.06% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Boca Juniors.

Season Stats

Sao Paulo
4W 4D 1L
Boca Juniors
4W 0D 1L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.8
0.4
Conceded
0.4
3.1
Shots OT
3.6
4.9
Corners
5.0
52%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
56%
O 1.5
40%
11%
O 2.5
40%
33%
BTTS
20%
56%
Clean Sht
60%
ℹ Based on the last 9 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
38%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Sao Paulo
3W 1D 0L · at home
Boca Juniors
1W 0D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
2.0
0.5
Conceded
0.5
75%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
25%
O 2.5
50%
25%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Sao Paulo Boca Juniors →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 17.6% 12.7% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% —
1 17.8% 12.9% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 9.0% 6.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 3.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% — —
4 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% — — —
5 0.2% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
L Boca Juniors 1–0
W Bolívar 3–1
D Bolívar 1–1
W Boston River 2–0
D Millonarios 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 26%
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
W Sao Paulo 1–0
W Deportivo Recoleta 0–4
W Deportivo Recoleta 3–1
L O'Higgins 1–0
W O'Higgins 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 31%

Playing profile

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Attack
35
Defence
77
Form
60
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
Attack
34
Defence
80
Form
62
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Sao Paulo
0
Draw
1
Boca Juniors
9 Sep 2026 Copa Sudamericana 0–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives Sao Paulo a 38% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 28% for an Boca Juniors win.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.0, Boca Juniors 0.7 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 63%.
What is the most likely score in Sao Paulo vs Boca Juniors?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.06%.