Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 16
August 19, 2026 02:30
Luciano
(ast. Danielzinho)
18'
Jonathan Calleri
68'
(pen.)
Sabino
(ast. Artur)
76'
61'
(ast. Pato Rodriguez)
D. Asprilla
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 43% win probability (draw 27%, Bolívar 29%). The final result was Sao Paulo 3–1 Bolívar. In 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bolívar.
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
2
1.81
Actual xG
0.13
50%
Possession
50%
4
Corners
3
Match Events
15'
E. Saavedra
⚽Luciano
· ast. Danielzinho
18'
Danielzinho
27'
27'
D. Asprilla
40'
S. Echeverria
Buta
58'
61'
ast. Pato Rodriguez ·
D. Asprilla⚽
64'
Pato Rodriguez
⚽Jonathan Calleri
(pen.)
68'
71'
B. Arce
/
S. Echeverria
71'
D. Batallini
/
Pato Rodriguez
71'
E. Vaca Moreno
/
E. Saavedra
Buta
/ Lucas Ramon
72'
⚽Sabino
· ast. Artur
76'
Luciano
79'
Luciano
/ Pablo Maia
80'
Artur
/ Ferreira
80'
Marcos Antonio
/ Victor Sa
86'
Jonathan Calleri
/ Andre Silva
86'
88'
M. Cauteruccio
/
D. Romero
88'
B. Miranda
/
Robson Matheus
Pre-match prediction
43.31%
Sao ←
27.0%
X
29.68%
Bolívar
we assigned to the actual result (Sao Paulo)
43.31%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.37
1.81
+0.44
1.30
0.13
-1.17
Sao Paulo dominated by xG (1.81 vs 0.13).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
The final score was Sao Paulo 3–1 Bolívar.
What did the model predict before Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
The model assigned 43% probability to a Sao Paulo win, 27% to a draw, and 29% to an Bolívar win.