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← Copa Sudamericana

Sao Paulo - Bolívar

Copa Sudamericana August 19, 2026 02:30
Sao Paulo
#1 · 12 pts
vs
Bolívar
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.53%
Win
Sao Paulo
26.73%
Draw
40.73%
Win
Bolívar
1.33
Expected xG
1.75

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.76%)
1X2 Result ✓ 80.0% hit rate (20 picks)
1 33%
X 27%
2 41%
Double Chance
1X 59%
X2 68%
12 73%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 56%
✓ 64.7% hit rate (17 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Bolívar a 40% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Sao Paulo. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sao Paulo and 1.7 for Bolívar (total 3.1), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.76% probability.

Season Stats

Sao Paulo
3W 3D 0L
Bolívar
6W 1D 1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
2.0
0.2
Conceded
0.6
3.2
Shots OT
4.6
5.7
Corners
4.9
56%
Poss.
53%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
75%
0%
O 2.5
50%
17%
BTTS
25%
83%
Clean Sht
63%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
17%
BTTS
Sao Paulo
2W 1D 0L · at home
Bolívar
3W 0D 1L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.5
0.3
Conceded
0.2
67%
Win %
75%
100%
Win or Draw
75%
100%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
25%
0%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
0%
67%
Clean Sht
75%
0%
Failed to Score
25%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Sao Paulo Bolívar →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.6% 8.0% 7.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
1 6.1% 10.7% 9.3% 5.4% 2.4% 0.8%
2 4.1% 7.1% 6.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6%
3 1.8% 3.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% —

Recent form

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
W Boston River 2–0
D Millonarios 1–1
D O'Higgins 0–0
D Millonarios 0–0
W O'Higgins 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
Bolívar Bolívar
W Gremio 0–1
W Gremio 3–2
L Atletico-MG 1–0
D Atletico-MG 2–2
W Cienciano 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Attack
32
Defence
68
Form
45
Bolívar Bolívar
Attack
56
Defence
69
Form
67
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
The model gives Sao Paulo a 32% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 40% for an Bolívar win.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.3, Bolívar 1.7 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Sao Paulo vs Bolívar?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.76%.