Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 17
May 23, 2026 22:00
Luciano
4'
90'
J. Barrera
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 45% win probability (draw 21%, Botafogo 33%). The final result was Sao Paulo 1–1 Botafogo.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
13
4
Shots on target
6
1.63
Actual xG
0.77
5
Saves
3
54%
Possession
46%
4
Corners
3
10
Tackles
20
4
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽Luciano
4'
Luciano
27'
27'
G. Justino
Luciano
/ Pedro Ferreira
30'
Sabino
/ Luis Osorio
44'
46'
K. Barria
/
L. M. Villalba Jaume
56'
61'
A. Montoro
65'
Edenilson
/
A. Montoro
65'
J. Barrera
/
Kauan Toledo
Ferreira
/ G. Tapia
75'
Pedro Ferreira
/ Djhordney
75'
76'
J. Correa
/
Huguinho
Wendell
80'
84'
J. Correa
Rafael
85'
87'
C. Ramos
/
G. Justino
G. Tapia
89'
90'+2
C. Ramos
90'
J. Barrera⚽
Pre-match prediction
45.23%
Sao
21.65%
X ←
33.11%
Botafogo
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
21.65%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.91
1.63
-0.28
1.76
0.77
-0.99
Sao Paulo dominated by xG (1.63 vs 0.77).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
18
Wendell
D
Wendell
D
35
Sabino
44'
D
Sabino
44'
D
28
A. Franco
D
A. Franco
D
19
Lucas Ramon
D
Lucas Ramon
D
29
Pablo Maia
M
Pablo Maia
M
94
Danielzinho
M
Danielzinho
M
11
Ferreirinha
75'
M
Ferreirinha
75'
M
10
Luciano
1 ⚽
30'
M
Luciano
1 ⚽
30'
M
37
Artur
M
Artur
M
9
Jonathan Calleri
F
Jonathan Calleri
F
Bench
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
D
Cédric Soares
D
48
Djhordney
15'
M
Djhordney
15'
M
30
Felipe Negrucci
M
Felipe Negrucci
M
14
G. Tapia
15'
F
G. Tapia
15'
F
43
Gustavo Santana
M
Gustavo Santana
M
38
Leonardo Hugo
D
Leonardo Hugo
D
33
Luan Santos
M
Luan Santos
M
45
Lucca
F
Lucca
F
54
Luis Osorio
46'
D
Luis Osorio
46'
D
15
Moreira
D
Moreira
D
46
Pedro Ferreira
45'
M
Pedro Ferreira
45'
M
22
Neto
G
Neto
G
21
Marçal
D
Marçal
D
34
Gabriel Justino
87'
D
Gabriel Justino
87'
D
5
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
Nahuel Ferraresi
D
2
Vitinho
D
Vitinho
D
10
Álvaro Montoro
65'
M
Álvaro Montoro
65'
M
23
S. Rodríguez
M
S. Rodríguez
M
75
Huguinho
76'
M
Huguinho
76'
M
77
Lucas Villalba
45'
M
Lucas Villalba
45'
M
59
Kauan Toledo
65'
F
Kauan Toledo
65'
F
19
Arthur Cabral
F
Arthur Cabral
F
Bench
27
Caio Roque
D
Caio Roque
D
45
Caio Valle
M
Caio Valle
M
9
Chris Ramos
10'
F
Chris Ramos
10'
F
88
Edenilson
25'
M
Edenilson
25'
M
30
J. Correa
14'
F
J. Correa
14'
F
14
Jordan Barrera
1 ⚽
25'
M
Jordan Barrera
1 ⚽
25'
M
42
Kadu Santos
D
Kadu Santos
D
37
K. Barria
45'
F
K. Barria
45'
F
25
Newton
M
Newton
M
1
Raul
G
55
Wallace Davi
M
Wallace Davi
M
3
Ythallo
D
Ythallo
D
Best on the pitch
Jordan Barrera
M · Botafogo
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 8 pass
Artur
M · Sao
7.50
1 shots
· 37 pass
S. Rodríguez
M · Botafogo
7.30
· 45 pass
Nahuel Ferraresi
D · Botafogo
7.30
1 shots
· 36 pass
Rafael
G · Sao
7.20
· 27 pass
Danielzinho
M · Sao
7.20
· 44 pass
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| Wendell | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Sabino | D | 44 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | — | — | — |
| A. Franco | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Luciano | M | 30 | 7.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| Artur | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Calleri | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Djhordney | M | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Tapia | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Osorio | D | 46 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Botafogo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Marçal | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 48 | 37% | 5 | — | — |
| Gabriel Justino | D | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Rodríguez | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 45 | 37% | 3 | — | — |
| Huguinho | M | 76 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Villalba | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | F | 65 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Chris Ramos | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Edenilson | M | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| J. Correa | F | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 25 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 8 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Barria | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 5 | 12 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?
The final score was Sao Paulo 1–1 Botafogo.
What did the model predict before Sao Paulo vs Botafogo?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Sao Paulo win, 21% to a draw, and 33% to an Botafogo win.