Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 02:30
Luciano
(ast. D. Bobadilla)
9'
81'
J. Hurtado
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 43% win probability (draw 23%, Sao Paulo 33%). The final result was Sao Paulo 1–1 Millonarios. In 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Millonarios.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
4
1.29
Actual xG
1.84
3
Saves
2
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
2
7
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Luciano
· ast. D. Bobadilla
9'
30'
S. Mosquera
Jonathan Calleri
47'
Ferreira
52'
58'
A. Castro
/
D. Silva
59'
S. Viveros
Ferreira
/ Wendell
63'
70'
A. Castro
Artur
73'
Jonathan Calleri
/ G. Tapia
75'
75'
J. Hurtado
/
L. Castro
76'
S. Vega
/
M. Garcia
D. Bobadilla
78'
81'
J. Hurtado⚽
E. Diaz
/ Lucca Marques
85'
Luciano
/ Andre Silva
85'
Danielzinho
/ Luan Silva
85'
85'
D. Banguero
/
S. Valencia
88'
(missed pen.)
R. Contreras⚽
Pre-match prediction
33.14%
Sao
23.44%
X ←
43.42%
Millonarios
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
23.44%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.22
1.29
+0.07
1.63
1.84
+0.21
Millonarios dominated by xG (1.84 vs 1.29).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
13
E. Díaz
85'
D
E. Díaz
85'
D
28
Alan Javier Franco
D
Alan Javier Franco
D
4
Dória
D
Dória
D
19
Lucas Ramon
D
Lucas Ramon
D
16
D. Bobadilla
1 👟
M
D. Bobadilla
1 👟
M
94
Danielzinho
85'
M
Danielzinho
85'
M
11
Ferreirinha
63'
M
Ferreirinha
63'
M
10
Luciano
1 ⚽
85'
M
Luciano
1 ⚽
85'
M
37
Artur
M
Artur
M
9
J. Calleri
76'
F
J. Calleri
76'
F
Bench
17
André Silva
10'
F
André Silva
10'
F
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
D
Cédric Soares
D
48
Djhordney Ferreira
M
Djhordney Ferreira
M
14
Gonzalo Tapia
19'
F
Gonzalo Tapia
19'
F
38
Hugo Leonardo
D
Hugo Leonardo
D
33
Luan Santos
10'
M
Luan Santos
10'
M
45
Lucca
10'
F
Lucca
10'
F
54
Luis Osorio
D
Luis Osorio
D
46
Pedro Ferreira
M
Pedro Ferreira
M
35
Sabino
D
Sabino
D
18
Wendell
32'
D
Wendell
32'
D
12
Diego Novoa
G
Diego Novoa
G
22
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
85'
D
Sebastián Valencia Isaza
85'
D
17
Jorge Arias
D
Jorge Arias
D
6
Sergio Mosquera
D
Sergio Mosquera
D
26
Andrés Llinás
D
Andrés Llinás
D
30
Sebastián del Castillo
D
Sebastián del Castillo
D
14
David Macalister Silva
58'
M
David Macalister Silva
58'
M
18
R. Ureña
M
R. Ureña
M
19
M. García
76'
M
M. García
76'
M
27
R. Contreras
F
R. Contreras
F
23
L. Castro
76'
F
L. Castro
76'
F
Bench
33
Alex Castro
37'
F
Alex Castro
37'
F
29
Alex Moreno
D
Alex Moreno
D
2
Carlos Sarabia
D
Carlos Sarabia
D
20
Danovis Banguero
10'
D
Danovis Banguero
10'
D
4
Edgar Elizalde
D
Edgar Elizalde
D
1
Guillermo De Amores
G
Guillermo De Amores
G
99
Jorge Hurtado
1 ⚽
19'
F
Jorge Hurtado
1 ⚽
19'
F
24
Julian Angulo
F
Julian Angulo
F
3
Samuel Martín
D
Samuel Martín
D
35
Sebastián Mosquera
F
Sebastián Mosquera
F
28
Stiven Vega
19'
M
Stiven Vega
19'
M
Best on the pitch
Danielzinho
M · Sao
8.20
1 shots
· 59 pass
Luciano
M · Sao
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 48 pass
Lucas Ramon
D · Sao
7.50
· 43 pass
Alex Castro
F · Millonarios
7.30
· 13 pass
Jorge Hurtado
F · Millonarios
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
D. Bobadilla
M · Sao
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 75 pass
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | — | — | — |
| E. Díaz | D | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 69 | 62% | — | — | — |
| Alan Javier Franco | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Dória | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 43 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Bobadilla | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 75 | 69% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 85 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 58% | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano | M | 85 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Artur | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Calleri | F | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| André Silva | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Lucca | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
Millonarios — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Novoa | G | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Valencia Isaza | D | 85 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Arias | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Sergio Mosquera | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Andrés Llinás | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián del Castillo | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| David Macalister Silva | M | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
| R. Ureña | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| M. García | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Contreras | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 14 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Castro | F | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Castro | F | 37 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Danovis Banguero | D | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Hurtado | F | 19 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Stiven Vega | M | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Millonarios?
The final score was Sao Paulo 1–1 Millonarios.
What did the model predict before Sao Paulo vs Millonarios?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Sao Paulo win, 23% to a draw, and 43% to an Millonarios win.