Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 02:30
Luciano
(ast. D. Bobadilla)
9'
81'
J. Hurtado
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Millonarios a 43% win probability (draw 23%, Sao Paulo 33%). The final result was Sao Paulo 1–1 Millonarios. In 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Millonarios.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
9
3
Shots on target
4
1.29
Actual xG
1.84
3
Saves
2
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
2
7
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Luciano
· ast. D. Bobadilla
9'
30'
S. Mosquera
Jonathan Calleri
47'
Ferreira
52'
58'
A. Castro
/
D. Silva
59'
S. Viveros
Ferreira
/ Wendell
63'
70'
A. Castro
Artur
73'
Jonathan Calleri
/ G. Tapia
75'
75'
J. Hurtado
/
L. Castro
76'
S. Vega
/
M. Garcia
D. Bobadilla
78'
81'
J. Hurtado⚽
E. Diaz
/ Lucca Marques
85'
Luciano
/ Andre Silva
85'
Danielzinho
/ Luan Silva
85'
85'
D. Banguero
/
S. Valencia
88'
(missed pen.)
R. Contreras⚽
Pre-match prediction
33.14%
Sao
23.44%
X ←
43.42%
Millonarios
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
23.44%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.22
1.29
+0.07
1.63
1.84
+0.21
Millonarios dominated by xG (1.84 vs 1.29).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
13
E. Díaz
85'
D
E. Díaz
85'
D
28
A. Franco
D
A. Franco
D
4
Dória
D
Dória
D
19
Lucas Ramon
D
Lucas Ramon
D
16
Damián Bobadilla
1 👟
M
Damián Bobadilla
1 👟
M
94
Danielzinho
85'
M
Danielzinho
85'
M
11
Ferreirinha
63'
M
Ferreirinha
63'
M
10
Luciano
1 ⚽
85'
M
Luciano
1 ⚽
85'
M
37
Artur
M
Artur
M
9
Jonathan Calleri
76'
F
Jonathan Calleri
76'
F
Bench
17
André Silva
10'
F
André Silva
10'
F
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
D
Cédric Soares
D
48
Djhordney
M
Djhordney
M
14
G. Tapia
19'
F
G. Tapia
19'
F
38
Leonardo Hugo
D
Leonardo Hugo
D
33
Luan Santos
10'
M
Luan Santos
10'
M
45
Lucca
10'
F
Lucca
10'
F
54
Luis Osorio
D
Luis Osorio
D
46
Pedro Ferreira
M
Pedro Ferreira
M
35
Sabino
D
Sabino
D
18
Wendell
32'
D
Wendell
32'
D
12
Diego Novoa
G
Diego Novoa
G
22
Sebastián Valencia
85'
D
Sebastián Valencia
85'
D
17
Jorge Arias
D
Jorge Arias
D
6
Sergio Mosquera
D
Sergio Mosquera
D
26
Andrés Llinás
D
Andrés Llinás
D
30
Sebastián del Castillo
D
Sebastián del Castillo
D
14
David Macalister Silva
58'
M
David Macalister Silva
58'
M
18
Rodrigo Ureña
M
Rodrigo Ureña
M
19
Mateo García
76'
M
Mateo García
76'
M
27
R. Contreras
F
R. Contreras
F
23
Leonardo Castro
76'
F
Leonardo Castro
76'
F
Bench
33
Alex Castro
37'
F
Alex Castro
37'
F
29
Alex Moreno
D
Alex Moreno
D
2
C. Sarabia
D
C. Sarabia
D
20
Danovis Banguero
10'
D
Danovis Banguero
10'
D
4
E. Elizalde
D
1
Guillermo De Amores
G
Guillermo De Amores
G
99
Jorge Hurtado
1 ⚽
19'
F
Jorge Hurtado
1 ⚽
19'
F
24
Julian Angulo
F
Julian Angulo
F
3
Samuel Martín
D
Samuel Martín
D
35
Sebastián Mosquera
F
Sebastián Mosquera
F
28
Stiven Vega
19'
M
Stiven Vega
19'
M
Best on the pitch
Danielzinho
M · Sao
8.20
1 shots
· 59 pass
Luciano
M · Sao
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 48 pass
Lucas Ramon
D · Sao
7.50
· 43 pass
Alex Castro
F · Millonarios
7.30
· 13 pass
Jorge Hurtado
F · Millonarios
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 3 pass
Damián Bobadilla
M · Sao
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 75 pass
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | — | — | — |
| E. Díaz | D | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 69 | 62% | — | — | — |
| A. Franco | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Dória | D | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 43 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 75 | 69% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 85 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 58% | — | — | — |
| Ferreirinha | M | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 27% | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano | M | 85 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 48 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Artur | M | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Calleri | F | 76 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 1 | 1 | — |
| André Silva | F | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Tapia | F | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Lucca | F | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 32 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
Millonarios — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Novoa | G | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Valencia | D | 85 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Arias | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| Sergio Mosquera | D | 95 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Andrés Llinás | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián del Castillo | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | 1 | 1 | — |
| David Macalister Silva | M | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Ureña | M | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo García | M | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Contreras | F | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 14 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Leonardo Castro | F | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Castro | F | 37 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Danovis Banguero | D | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Jorge Hurtado | F | 19 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Stiven Vega | M | 19 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Millonarios?
The final score was Sao Paulo 1–1 Millonarios.
What did the model predict before Sao Paulo vs Millonarios?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Sao Paulo win, 23% to a draw, and 43% to an Millonarios win.