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← Brasileirão Série A

Sao Paulo - Santos

Brasileirão Série A July 29, 2026 22:00
Sao Paulo
#12 · 26 pts
vs
Santos
#14 · 22 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
43.96%
Win
Sao Paulo
25.35%
Draw
30.7%
Win
Santos
1.39
Expected xG
1.19

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.91%)
1X2 Result
1 44%
X 25%
2 31%
Double Chance
1X 69%
X2 56%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
✓ 81.9% hit rate (72 picks)
Over 2.5 47%
✓ 55.6% hit rate (45 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Sao Paulo a 43% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Santos. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sao Paulo and 1.2 for Santos (total 2.6), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.91% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Santos.

Season Stats

Sao Paulo
3W 4D 8L
Santos
4W 5D 6L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.4
1.4
Conceded
1.5
3.6
Shots OT
3.8
6.6
Corners
4.8
54%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
87%
47%
O 2.5
60%
67%
BTTS
67%
7%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Brasileirão Série A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
39%
O 3.5
73%
BTTS
Sao Paulo
5W 2D 2L · at home
Santos
0W 4D 5L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.3
0.9
Conceded
2.1
56%
Win %
0%
78%
Win or Draw
44%
78%
O 1.5
89%
44%
O 2.5
78%
22%
O 3.5
56%
56%
BTTS
89%
33%
Clean Sht
11%
11%
Failed to Score
11%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Sao Paulo Santos →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.6% 9.0% 5.3% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
1 10.5% 12.5% 7.4% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
2 7.3% 8.7% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1%
3 3.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% —
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
D Flamengo 1–1
L Atletico Paranaense 1–2
L Remo 1–0
D Botafogo 1–1
L Fluminense 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Santos Santos
D Chapecoense-sc 2–2
L Botafogo 2–1
W Vitoria 3–1
L Gremio 3–2
L Coritiba 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Attack
31
Defence
66
Form
39
Santos Santos
Attack
47
Defence
53
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Sao Paulo
1
Draw
0
Santos
5 Feb 2026 Brasileirão Série A 1–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Palmeiras Palmeiras 20 44
2 Flamengo Flamengo 19 38
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 20 36
4 Fluminense Fluminense 20 33
5 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 20 31
6 Bahia Bahia 20 31
7 Botafogo Botafogo 20 29
8 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 20 28
9 Corinthians Corinthians 20 28
10 Coritiba Coritiba 20 27
11 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 20 27
12 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 20 26
13 Vitoria Vitoria 20 26
14 Santos Santos 20 22
15 Gremio Gremio 20 22
16 Internacional Internacional 20 21
17 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 20 21
18 Remo Remo 20 21
19 Mirassol Mirassol 19 20
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 20 10
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Santos?
The model gives Sao Paulo a 43% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 30% for an Santos win.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.4, Santos 1.2 (total 2.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Sao Paulo vs Santos?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.91%.