✓Model correct — prediction Sao Paulo
Jonathan Calleri
(ast. Iago Amaral Borduchi)
20'
Jonathan Calleri
70'
39'
(ast. Erick)
Emmanuel Martínez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 55% win probability (draw 21%, Vitoria 23%). The final result was Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria. In 1 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Vitoria.
Match statistics
21
Total shots
11
6
Shots on target
2
1.80
Actual xG
0.79
1
Saves
4
55%
Possession
45%
6
Corners
2
18
Tackles
17
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
16'
Matheuzinho
16'
Cacá
⚽Jonathan Calleri
· ast. Iago Amaral Borduchi
20'
Gustavo Santana
24'
39'
ast. Erick ·
Emmanuel Martínez⚽
Djhordney Ferreira
44'
Djhordney Ferreira
/ Lucas Moura
59'
Lucas Ramon
/ Marcos Antonio
59'
69'
Tomás Pochettino
/
Lucas Silva
⚽Jonathan Calleri
70'
Artur Victor Guimarães
/ Pedro Ferreira
75'
Gustavo Santana
/ Pedro Lima
75'
Jose Monteiro
77'
Iago Amaral Borduchi
78'
78'
Zé Vitor
/
Caíque Gonçalves
78'
Anderson Pato
/
Matheuzinho
79'
Renato Kayzer
/
Carlos Renê de Sousa Ferreira
Damian Bobadilla
/ Rafael Tolói
84'
86'
Renato Kayzer
90'
bruno alex
/
Emmanuel Martínez
Pre-match prediction
55.75%
Sao ←
21.07%
X
23.19%
Vitoria
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Sao Paulo)
55.75%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.14
1.80
-0.34
1.42
0.79
-0.63
Sao Paulo dominated by xG (1.80 vs 0.79).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
35
Sabino
D
Sabino
D
5
R. Arboleda
D
R. Arboleda
D
28
Newton
D
Newton
D
12
Iago
1 👟
M
Iago
1 👟
M
48
D. Ferreira
59'
M
D. Ferreira
59'
M
16
D. Bobadilla
84'
M
D. Bobadilla
84'
M
19
Lucas Ramon
59'
M
Lucas Ramon
59'
M
43
G. Santana
75'
M
G. Santana
75'
M
37
Artur
75'
M
Artur
75'
M
9
J. Calleri
2 ⚽
F
J. Calleri
2 ⚽
F
Bench
17
André Silva
F
André Silva
F
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
7
Lucas Moura
31'
F
Lucas Moura
31'
F
45
Lucca Marques Alencar
F
Lucca Marques Alencar
F
8
Marcos Antônio
31'
M
Marcos Antônio
31'
M
29
Pablo Maia
M
Pablo Maia
M
46
Pedro Ferreira
15'
M
Pedro Ferreira
15'
M
32
Pedro Lima
15'
D
Pedro Lima
15'
D
2
R. Tolói
6'
D
R. Tolói
6'
D
49
Ryan Francisco
F
Ryan Francisco
F
27
Victor Sá
F
Victor Sá
F
18
Wendell
D
Wendell
D
1
Lucas Arcanjo
G
Lucas Arcanjo
G
83
Jamerson
D
Jamerson
D
36
Luan Cândido
D
Luan Cândido
D
25
Cacá
D
Cacá
D
98
Mateusinho
D
Mateusinho
D
95
Caíque
78'
M
Caíque
78'
M
20
Lucas Silva
69'
M
Lucas Silva
69'
M
10
Matheuzinho
78'
M
Matheuzinho
78'
M
6
E. Martínez
1 ⚽
89'
M
E. Martínez
1 ⚽
89'
M
33
Erick
1 👟
M
Erick
1 👟
M
91
Rene
79'
F
Rene
79'
F
Bench
9
Alex Bruno
1'
F
Alex Bruno
1'
F
2
E. Brítez
D
E. Brítez
D
26
Edenilson
M
Edenilson
M
23
Fabrício
F
Fabrício
F
77
I. Laquintana
M
I. Laquintana
M
7
Marinho
F
Marinho
F
79
Renato Kayzer
11'
F
Renato Kayzer
11'
F
8
T. Pochettino
21'
M
T. Pochettino
21'
M
15
Walace
M
Walace
M
71
Yuri Sena
G
Yuri Sena
G
88
Zé Vitor
12'
M
Zé Vitor
12'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Calleri
F · Sao
9.39
2 ⚽
4 shots
· 25 pass
E. Martínez
M · Vitoria
7.97
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
D. Bobadilla
M · Sao
7.20
1 shots
· 59 pass
Artur
M · Sao
7.13
3 shots
· 35 pass
R. Arboleda
D · Sao
7.05
1 shots
· 44 pass
Erick
M · Vitoria
7.02
1 👟
1 shots
· 43 pass
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 90 | 6.62 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 19% | 0 | — | — |
| Sabino | D | 90 | 6.81 | — | — | 3 | 44 | 36% | 2 | 1 | — |
| R. Arboleda | D | 90 | 7.05 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Newton | D | 90 | 6.52 | — | — | 0 | 52 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Iago | M | 90 | 6.14 | — | 1 | 1 | 37 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Ferreira | M | 59 | 6.66 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 45% | 0 | 1 | — |
| D. Bobadilla | M | 84 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 52% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | M | 59 | 6.21 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Santana | M | 75 | 6.44 | — | — | 5 | 18 | 14% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Artur | M | 75 | 7.13 | — | — | 3 | 35 | 31% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Calleri | F | 90 | 9.39 | 2 | — | 4 | 25 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Lucas Moura | F | 31 | 6.67 | — | — | 0 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 31 | 6.83 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 28% | 0 | — | — |
| Pedro Ferreira | M | 15 | 6.35 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Lima | D | 15 | 6.45 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Tolói | D | 6 | 6.30 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
Vitoria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 90 | 6.68 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| Jamerson | D | 90 | 5.63 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 90 | 6.43 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| Cacá | D | 90 | 5.99 | — | — | 0 | 61 | 52% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Mateusinho | D | 90 | 6.89 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Caíque | M | 78 | 6.45 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 37% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 69 | 6.17 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 78 | 5.85 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 15% | 0 | 1 | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 89 | 7.97 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 90 | 7.02 | — | 1 | 1 | 43 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| Rene | F | 79 | 5.71 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
| Alex Bruno | F | 1 | 0.00 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 0 | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 11 | 6.12 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | — |
| T. Pochettino | M | 21 | 5.98 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 12 | 6.17 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
The final score was Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria.
What did the model predict before Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Sao Paulo win, 21% to a draw, and 23% to an Vitoria win.