✓Model correct — prediction SC Braga
P. Victor
(ast. F. Navarro)
66'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Braga a 68% win probability (draw 17%, Arouca 13%). The final result was SC Braga 1–0 Arouca. In 1 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Arouca.
Match statistics
3
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
1
0.89
Actual xG
1.11
1
Saves
1
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
5
5
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
33'
Vitor Carvalho
/ P. Oliveira
46'
55'
Bas Kuipers
R. Horta
/ P. Victor
63'
L. Lelo
/ G. Martinez
63'
65'
A. Dante
/
B. Kuipers
65'
A. Trezza
/
P. Gozalbez
⚽P. Victor
· ast. F. Navarro
66'
Gabriel Martínez
72'
J. Moutinho
/ Gorby
76'
80'
Gabriel Martínez
82'
Gabriel Martínez
82'
85'
M. Flores
/
H. Lee
85'
Pedro Santos
/
T. Fukui
F. Navarro
/ Y. da Rocha
89'
90'+1
F. Mayulu
/
Tiago Esgaio
90'+5
Jose Fontán
Pre-match prediction
68.98%
SC ←
17.47%
X
13.55%
Arouca
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (SC Braga)
68.98%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.55
0.89
-1.66
1.21
1.11
-0.1
xG dominance was balanced (0.89 – 1.11).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Lukáš Horníček
G
Lukáš Horníček
G
26
B. Arrey-Mbi
D
6
Vítor Carvalho
45'
D
Vítor Carvalho
45'
D
17
Gabriel Moscardo
D
Gabriel Moscardo
D
5
Leonardo Lelo
63'
M
Leonardo Lelo
63'
M
8
João Moutinho
76'
M
João Moutinho
76'
M
34
Demir Ege Tıknaz
M
Demir Ege Tıknaz
M
2
Víctor Gómez
M
Víctor Gómez
M
21
Ricardo Horta
63'
F
Ricardo Horta
63'
F
20
M. Dorgeles
F
M. Dorgeles
F
39
Fran Navarro
1 👟
89'
F
Fran Navarro
1 👟
89'
F
Bench
9
Amine El Ouazzani
F
Amine El Ouazzani
F
77
Gabri Martínez
19'
F
Gabri Martínez
19'
F
29
Jean-Baptiste Gorby
14'
M
Jean-Baptiste Gorby
14'
M
90
Luís Pinto
M
Luís Pinto
M
15
Paulo Oliveira
45'
D
Paulo Oliveira
45'
D
18
Pau Victor
1 ⚽
27'
F
Pau Victor
1 ⚽
27'
F
30
G
7
Naïs Djouahra
D
Naïs Djouahra
D
25
Bas Kuipers
65'
D
Bas Kuipers
65'
D
3
José Fontán
D
José Fontán
D
15
Javi Sánchez
D
Javi Sánchez
D
28
Tiago Esgaio
89'
D
Tiago Esgaio
89'
D
14
Lee Hyun-Ju
85'
M
Lee Hyun-Ju
85'
M
21
Taichi Fukui
85'
M
Taichi Fukui
85'
M
22
Espen Van Ee
M
Espen Van Ee
M
10
Pablo Gozálbez
65'
M
Pablo Gozálbez
65'
M
17
Barbero
F
Barbero
F
Bench
19
A. Trezza
25'
F
A. Trezza
25'
F
46
Mateo Flores
14'
M
Mateo Flores
14'
M
4
M. Rocha
D
M. Rocha
D
89
Pedro Santos
14'
M
Pedro Santos
14'
M
Best on the pitch
Pau Victor
F · SC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 10 pass
Demir Ege Tıknaz
M · SC
7.50
· 74 pass
Gabriel Moscardo
D · SC
7.30
· 57 pass
Vítor Carvalho
D · SC
7.20
· 79 pass
Víctor Gómez
M · SC
7.20
· 32 pass
Paulo Oliveira
D · SC
7.20
· 26 pass
SC Braga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukáš Horníček | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 44 | 36% | — | — | — |
| B. Arrey-Mbi | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 90 | 84% | — | — | — |
| Vítor Carvalho | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 79 | 71% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Moscardo | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 57 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Leonardo Lelo | M | 63 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 35% | — | — | — |
| João Moutinho | M | 76 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 94 | 90% | — | — | — |
| Demir Ege Tıknaz | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 74 | 68% | 1 | — | — |
| Víctor Gómez | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Ricardo Horta | F | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 32% | — | — | — |
| M. Dorgeles | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Fran Navarro | F | 89 | 6.20 | — | 1 | — | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Gabri Martínez | F | 19 | 4.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | 2 | 1 |
| Jean-Baptiste Gorby | M | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Oliveira | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Pau Victor | F | 27 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
Arouca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| Naïs Djouahra | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Bas Kuipers | D | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| José Fontán | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 63 | 51% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 43% | 3 | — | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Taichi Fukui | M | 85 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Espen Van Ee | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 90 | 5.30 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Trezza | F | 25 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Braga vs Arouca?
The final score was SC Braga 1–0 Arouca.
What did the model predict before SC Braga vs Arouca?
The model assigned 68% probability to a SC Braga win, 17% to a draw, and 13% to an Arouca win.