← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29 April 12, 2026 21:00
SC Braga
#4 · 58 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Arouca
#10 · 39 pts
✓Model correct — prediction SC Braga
P. Victor (ast. F. Navarro) 66'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Braga a 68% win probability (draw 17%, Arouca 13%). The final result was SC Braga 1–0 Arouca. In 1 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Arouca.

Match statistics
3
Total shots
5
2
Shots on target
1
0.89
Actual xG
1.11
1
Saves
1
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
5
5
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
33'
↕ Vitor Carvalho / P. Oliveira
46'
55'
Bas Kuipers
↕ R. Horta / P. Victor
63'
↕ L. Lelo / G. Martinez
63'
65'
A. Dante / B. Kuipers ↕
65'
A. Trezza / P. Gozalbez ↕
⚽P. Victor · ast. F. Navarro
66'
Gabriel Martínez
72'
↕ J. Moutinho / Gorby
76'
80'
Gabriel Martínez
82'
Gabriel Martínez
82'
85'
M. Flores / H. Lee ↕
85'
Pedro Santos / T. Fukui ↕
↕ F. Navarro / Y. da Rocha
89'
90'+1
F. Mayulu / Tiago Esgaio ↕
90'+5
Jose Fontán
Pre-match prediction
68.98%
SC ←
17.47%
X
13.55%
Arouca
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (SC Braga) 68.98% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
2.55
0.89
-1.66
Arouca
1.21
1.11
-0.1
xG dominance was balanced (0.89 – 1.11). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
SC Braga SC Braga 3-4-2-1
1 Lukáš Horníček Lukáš Horníček G 7.00
26
B. Arrey-Mbi D 6.90
6 Vítor Carvalho Vítor Carvalho 45' D 7.20
17 Gabriel Moscardo Gabriel Moscardo D 7.30
5 Leonardo Lelo Leonardo Lelo 63' M 6.30
8 João Moutinho João Moutinho 76' M 7.00
34 Demir Ege Tıknaz Demir Ege Tıknaz M 7.50
2 Víctor Gómez Víctor Gómez M 7.20
21 Ricardo Horta Ricardo Horta 63' F 6.70
20 Mario Dorgeles Mario Dorgeles F 6.90
39 Fran Navarro Fran Navarro 1 👟 89' F 6.20
Bench
9 Amine El Ouazzani Amine El Ouazzani F
77 Gabri Martínez Gabri Martínez 19' F 4.50
29 Jean-Baptiste Gorby Jean-Baptiste Gorby 14' M 6.70
90 Luís Pinto Luís Pinto M
15 Paulo Oliveira Paulo Oliveira 45' D 7.20
18 Pau Victor Pau Victor 1 ⚽ 27' F 7.70
Arouca Arouca 5-4-1
30
G 6.20
7 Naïs Djouahra Naïs Djouahra D 6.30
25 Bas Kuipers Bas Kuipers 65' D 6.50
3 José Fontán José Fontán D 6.60
15 Javi Sánchez Javi Sánchez D 7.00
28 Tiago Esgaio Tiago Esgaio 89' D 6.90
14
H. Lee 85' M 6.90
21 Taichi Fukui Taichi Fukui 85' M 6.60
22 Espen Van Ee Espen Van Ee M 7.00
10 Pablo Gozálbez Pablo Gozálbez 65' M 6.90
17 Barbero Barbero F 5.30
Bench
19 A. Trezza A. Trezza 25' F 6.30
46 Mateo Flores Mateo Flores 14' M 6.70
4
Matías Rocha D
89
Pedro Santos 14' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
Pau Victor
Pau Victor
F · SC
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 10 pass
Demir Ege Tıknaz
Demir Ege Tıknaz
M · SC
7.50
· 74 pass
Gabriel Moscardo
Gabriel Moscardo
D · SC
7.30
· 57 pass
Vítor Carvalho
Vítor Carvalho
D · SC
7.20
· 79 pass
Víctor Gómez
Víctor Gómez
M · SC
7.20
· 32 pass
Paulo Oliveira
Paulo Oliveira
D · SC
7.20
· 26 pass
SC Braga SC Braga — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Lukáš Horníček G 90 7.00 — — — 44 36% — — —
B. Arrey-Mbi D 90 6.90 — — — 90 84% — — —
Vítor Carvalho D 45 7.20 — — — 79 71% — — —
Gabriel Moscardo D 90 7.30 — — — 57 52% 3 — —
Leonardo Lelo M 63 6.30 — — — 44 35% — — —
João Moutinho M 76 7.00 — — — 94 90% — — —
Demir Ege Tıknaz M 90 7.50 — — — 74 68% 1 — —
Víctor Gómez M 90 7.20 — — — 32 24% 1 — —
Ricardo Horta F 63 6.70 — — 1 33 32% — — —
Mario Dorgeles F 90 6.90 — — 1 46 37% — — —
Fran Navarro F 89 6.20 — 1 — 15 12% — — —
Gabri Martínez F 19 4.50 — — — 5 3% — 2 1
Jean-Baptiste Gorby M 14 6.70 — — — 2 — — — —
Paulo Oliveira D 45 7.20 — — — 26 23% — — —
Pau Victor F 27 7.70 1 — 1 10 9% — — —
Arouca Arouca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 26 16% — — —
Naïs Djouahra D 90 6.30 — — 1 33 24% — — —
Bas Kuipers D 65 6.50 — — — 19 16% — 1 —
José Fontán D 90 6.60 — — — 63 51% 2 1 —
Javi Sánchez D 90 7.00 — — 1 49 43% 3 — —
Tiago Esgaio D 89 6.90 — — 1 27 16% 2 — —
H. Lee M 85 6.90 — — — 17 17% — — —
Taichi Fukui M 85 6.60 — — — 34 32% — — —
Espen Van Ee M 90 7.00 — — — 47 45% 2 — —
Pablo Gozálbez M 65 6.90 — — — 16 8% 2 — —
Barbero F 90 5.30 — — 2 7 5% 2 — —
A. Trezza F 25 6.30 — — — 6 4% — — —
Mateo Flores M 14 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Pedro Santos M 14 6.70 — — — 13 13% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Braga vs Arouca?
The final score was SC Braga 1–0 Arouca.
What did the model predict before SC Braga vs Arouca?
The model assigned 68% probability to a SC Braga win, 17% to a draw, and 13% to an Arouca win.