← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32 May 03, 2026 19:00
SC Braga
#4 · 58 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Estoril
#9 · 39 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction SC Braga, result Pareggio
M. Dorgeles (ast. R. Zalazar) 23'
79' (ast. R. Sanchez) Y. Begraoui

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Braga a 57% win probability (draw 28%, Estoril 14%). The final result was SC Braga 1–1 Estoril. In 1 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estoril.

Match statistics
6
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
4
0.42
Actual xG
0.86
3
Saves
2
50%
Possession
50%
5
Corners
4
15
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽M. Dorgeles · ast. R. Zalazar
23'
Gabriel Moscardo
29'
36'
Xeka
D. E. Tiknaz
38'
45'+1
F. Bacher
↕ R. Zalazar / Luisinho
46'
50'
Ferro
54'
A. Lacximicant / Ferro ↕
↕ A. El Ouazzani / F. Navarro
61'
↕ J. Moutinho / P. Oliveira
70'
70'
G. Costa / P. Amaral ↕
79'
ast. R. Sanchez · Y. Begraoui⚽
80'
A. Marques / Y. Begraoui ↕
80'
Peixinho / R. Guitane ↕
81'
P. Carvalho / R. Sanchez ↕
Luisinho
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
57.08%
SC
28.38%
X ←
14.54%
Estoril
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 28.38% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
1.26
0.42
-0.84
Estoril
0.46
0.86
+0.41
Estoril dominated by xG (0.86 vs 0.42). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
SC Braga SC Braga 3-4-2-1
1 Lukáš Horníček Lukáš Horníček G 7.30
17 Gabriel Moscardo Gabriel Moscardo D 6.50
6 Vítor Carvalho Vítor Carvalho D 6.30
14 Gustaf Lagerbielke Gustaf Lagerbielke D 6.70
5 Leonardo Lelo Leonardo Lelo M 6.90
34 Demir Ege Tıknaz Demir Ege Tıknaz M 6.70
8 João Moutinho João Moutinho 70' M 6.30
20 Mario Dorgeles Mario Dorgeles 1 ⚽ M 8.00
18 Pau Victor Pau Victor F 7.00
10 R. Zalazar R. Zalazar 1 👟 45' F 6.60
9 Amine El Ouazzani Amine El Ouazzani 61' F 6.30
Bench
39 Fran Navarro Fran Navarro 31' F 6.50
90 Luís Pinto Luís Pinto 47' M 6.50
15 Paulo Oliveira Paulo Oliveira 22' D 6.20
Estoril Estoril 3-4-3
16
G 6.30
5 Antef Tsoungui Antef Tsoungui D 6.90
4 Ferro Ferro 54' D 6.70
25 Felix Bacher Felix Bacher D 6.90
24 Pedro Amaral Pedro Amaral 70' M 6.90
10 J. Holsgrove J. Holsgrove M 7.20
8 Xeka Xeka M 6.20
2 Ricard Sánchez Ricard Sánchez 1 👟 81' M 6.90
12 João Carvalho João Carvalho F 6.90
14 Y. Begraoui Y. Begraoui 1 ⚽ 80' F 7.30
99 R. Guitane R. Guitane 80' F 7.00
Bench
19 André Lacximicant André Lacximicant 38' F 6.70
22 Pedro Carvalho Pedro Carvalho 11' D 6.30
70 Peixinho Peixinho 12' F 6.70
21 Pizzi Pizzi M
Best on the pitch
Mario Dorgeles
Mario Dorgeles
M · SC
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 37 pass
Lukáš Horníček
Lukáš Horníček
G · SC
7.30
· 32 pass
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 10 pass
J. Holsgrove
J. Holsgrove
M · Estoril
7.20
3 shots · 65 pass
R. Guitane
R. Guitane
F · Estoril
7.00
· 34 pass
Pau Victor
Pau Victor
F · SC
7.00
1 shots · 40 pass
SC Braga SC Braga — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Lukáš Horníček G 92 7.30 — — — 32 16% — — —
Gabriel Moscardo D 92 6.50 — — 1 47 40% 2 1 —
Vítor Carvalho D 92 6.30 — — 1 54 50% 1 — —
Gustaf Lagerbielke D 92 6.70 — — — 49 46% 1 — —
Leonardo Lelo M 92 6.90 — — — 29 23% — — —
Demir Ege Tıknaz M 92 6.70 — — — 57 49% 4 1 —
João Moutinho M 70 6.30 — — — 55 50% 2 — —
Mario Dorgeles M 92 8.00 1 — 1 37 35% 1 — —
Pau Victor F 92 7.00 — — 1 40 32% 1 — —
R. Zalazar F 45 6.60 — 1 1 17 14% — — —
Amine El Ouazzani F 61 6.30 — — — 11 9% — — —
Fran Navarro F 31 6.50 — — 1 7 5% — — —
Luís Pinto M 47 6.50 — — — 24 18% 3 — —
Paulo Oliveira D 22 6.20 — — — 5 4% — — —
Estoril Estoril — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 92 6.30 — — — 23 18% — — —
Antef Tsoungui D 92 6.90 — — — 53 48% 1 — —
Ferro D 54 6.70 — — — 41 37% 1 1 —
Felix Bacher D 92 6.90 — — — 70 60% 2 1 —
Pedro Amaral M 70 6.90 — — — 30 27% 3 — —
J. Holsgrove M 92 7.20 — — 3 65 56% 4 — —
Xeka M 92 6.20 — — — 48 44% 1 1 —
Ricard Sánchez M 81 6.90 — 1 1 32 24% 1 — —
João Carvalho F 92 6.90 — — — 36 29% 1 — —
Y. Begraoui F 80 7.30 1 — 1 10 9% — — —
R. Guitane F 80 7.00 — — — 34 28% 1 — —
André Lacximicant F 38 6.70 — — 1 2 2% 1 — —
Pedro Carvalho D 11 6.30 — — — 6 5% — — —
Peixinho F 12 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Braga vs Estoril?
The final score was SC Braga 1–1 Estoril.
What did the model predict before SC Braga vs Estoril?
The model assigned 57% probability to a SC Braga win, 28% to a draw, and 14% to an Estoril win.