✗Model wrong — prediction SC Braga, result Draw
M. Dorgeles
(ast. R. Zalazar)
23'
79'
(ast. R. Sanchez)
Y. Begraoui
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Braga a 57% win probability (draw 28%, Estoril 14%). The final result was SC Braga 1–1 Estoril. In 2 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estoril.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
6
3
Shots on target
4
0.42
Actual xG
0.86
3
Saves
2
50%
Possession
50%
5
Corners
4
15
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽M. Dorgeles
· ast. R. Zalazar
23'
Gabriel Moscardo
29'
36'
Xeka
D. E. Tiknaz
38'
45'+1
F. Bacher
R. Zalazar
/ Luisinho
46'
50'
Ferro
54'
A. Lacximicant
/
Ferro
A. El Ouazzani
/ F. Navarro
61'
J. Moutinho
/ P. Oliveira
70'
70'
G. Costa
/
P. Amaral
79'
ast. R. Sanchez ·
Y. Begraoui⚽
80'
A. Marques
/
Y. Begraoui
80'
Peixinho
/
R. Guitane
81'
P. Carvalho
/
R. Sanchez
Luisinho
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
57.08%
SC
28.38%
X ←
14.54%
Estoril
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
28.38%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.26
0.42
-0.84
0.46
0.86
+0.41
Estoril dominated by xG (0.86 vs 0.42).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
L. Horníček
G
L. Horníček
G
17
Gabriel Moscardo
D
Gabriel Moscardo
D
6
Vitor Carvalho
D
Vitor Carvalho
D
14
G. Lagerbielke
D
G. Lagerbielke
D
5
Leonardo Lelo
M
Leonardo Lelo
M
34
E. Tıknaz
M
E. Tıknaz
M
8
João Moutinho
70'
M
João Moutinho
70'
M
20
M. Dorgeles
1 ⚽
M
M. Dorgeles
1 ⚽
M
18
Pau Victor
F
Pau Victor
F
10
Rodrigo Zalazar
1 👟
45'
F
Rodrigo Zalazar
1 👟
45'
F
9
A. El Ouazzani
61'
F
A. El Ouazzani
61'
F
Bench
39
Fran Navarro
31'
F
Fran Navarro
31'
F
90
Luisinho
47'
M
15
Paulo Oliveira
22'
D
Paulo Oliveira
22'
D
16
G
5
A. Tsoungui
D
A. Tsoungui
D
4
Ferro
54'
D
Ferro
54'
D
25
F. Bacher
D
F. Bacher
D
24
Pedro Amaral
70'
M
Pedro Amaral
70'
M
10
J. Holsgrove
M
J. Holsgrove
M
8
Xeka
M
Xeka
M
2
Ricard Sánchez
1 👟
81'
M
Ricard Sánchez
1 👟
81'
M
12
João Carvalho
F
João Carvalho
F
14
Y. Begraoui
1 ⚽
80'
F
Y. Begraoui
1 ⚽
80'
F
99
R. Guitane
80'
F
R. Guitane
80'
F
Bench
19
André Lacximicant
38'
F
André Lacximicant
38'
F
22
Pedro Carvalho
11'
D
Pedro Carvalho
11'
D
70
Peixinho
12'
F
Peixinho
12'
F
21
Pizzi
M
Pizzi
M
Best on the pitch
M. Dorgeles
M · SC
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 37 pass
L. Horníček
G · SC
7.30
· 32 pass
Y. Begraoui
F · Estoril
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 10 pass
J. Holsgrove
M · Estoril
7.20
3 shots
· 65 pass
R. Guitane
F · Estoril
7.00
· 34 pass
Pau Victor
F · SC
7.00
1 shots
· 40 pass
SC Braga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Horníček | G | 92 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Moscardo | D | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 40% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Vitor Carvalho | D | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 50% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Lagerbielke | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Lelo | M | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| E. Tıknaz | M | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 49% | 4 | 1 | — |
| João Moutinho | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Dorgeles | M | 92 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 37 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Victor | F | 92 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | F | 45 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. El Ouazzani | F | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Fran Navarro | F | 31 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Luisinho | M | 47 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 18% | 3 | — | — |
| Paulo Oliveira | D | 22 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Estoril — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| A. Tsoungui | D | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 53 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| Ferro | D | 54 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Bacher | D | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 70 | 60% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Pedro Amaral | M | 70 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Holsgrove | M | 92 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 65 | 56% | 4 | — | — |
| Xeka | M | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ricard Sánchez | M | 81 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 32 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| João Carvalho | F | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Begraoui | F | 80 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| R. Guitane | F | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| André Lacximicant | F | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Carvalho | D | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Peixinho | F | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Braga vs Estoril?
The final score was SC Braga 1–1 Estoril.
What did the model predict before SC Braga vs Estoril?
The model assigned 57% probability to a SC Braga win, 28% to a draw, and 14% to an Estoril win.