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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 19, 2026 15:30 Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
SC Freiburg
#3 · 13 pts
2 – 1
Final score
1. FC Heidenheim
✓Model correct — prediction SC Freiburg
J. Manzambi (ast. V. Grifo) 24'
M. Eggestein (ast. V. Grifo) 83'
58' (ast. M. Honsak) B. Zivzivadze
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Freiburg a 59% win probability (draw 21%, 1. FC Heidenheim 19%). The final result was SC Freiburg 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim. In 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
2
1.62
Actual xG
1.57
1
Saves
2
46%
Possession
54%
5
Corners
4
18
Tackles
8
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽J. Manzambi · ast. V. Grifo
24'
46'
B. Zivzivadze / J. Niehues ↕
58'
ast. M. Honsak · B. Zivzivadze⚽
↕ I. Matanovic / Y. Suzuki
68'
↕ D. Scherhant / J. Beste
68'
↕ J. Manzambi / N. Hofler
68'
N. Hofler
70'
72'
C. Conteh / A. Ibrahimovic ↕
76'
A. Beck / N. Dorsch ↕
76'
S. Schimmer / M. Honsak ↕
↕ C. Gunter / J. Makengo
78'
⚽M. Eggestein · ast. V. Grifo
83'
↕ L. Kubler / P. Lienhart
85'
Pre-match prediction
59.21%
SC ←
21.55%
X
19.24%
1.
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 59.21% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
2.04
1.62
-0.42
1.
1.13
1.57
+0.44
xG dominance was balanced (1.62 – 1.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu N. Atubolu G 6.30
30 C. Günter C. Günter 78' D 6.30
43 I. Ogbus I. Ogbus D 7.20
28 M. Ginter M. Ginter D 7.30
17 L. Kübler L. Kübler 85' D 6.70
44 J. Manzambi J. Manzambi 1 ⚽ 68' M 8.30
8 M. Eggestein M. Eggestein 1 ⚽ M 7.90
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo 2 👟 M 7.30
9 L. Höler L. Höler M 7.70
7 D. Scherhant D. Scherhant 68' M 6.50
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović 68' F 6.30
Bench
22 Cyriaque Kalou Irié Cyriaque Kalou Irié F
19 J. Beste J. Beste 24' D 6.90
33 J. Makengo J. Makengo 14' D 6.30
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler 24' M 6.70
3 P. Lienhart P. Lienhart 7' D
29 P. Treu P. Treu D
14 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki 24' M 6.90
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 4-1-4-1
41 D. Ramaj D. Ramaj G 6.60
26 Hennes Behrens Hennes Behrens D 7.30
19
D 6.90
6 P. Mainka P. Mainka D 6.20
2 M. Busch M. Busch D 6.30
16 J. Niehues J. Niehues 45' M 6.60
17 M. Honsak M. Honsak 1 👟 76' M 6.70
30 N. Dorsch N. Dorsch 76' M 6.20
3 J. Schöppner J. Schöppner M 6.90
22 A. Ibrahimović A. Ibrahimović 72' M 6.50
18 M. Pieringer M. Pieringer F 6.30
Bench
21 A. Beck A. Beck 16' M 6.60
11 B. Zivzivadze B. Zivzivadze 1 ⚽ 47' F 7.50
9 S. Schimmer S. Schimmer 16' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
J. Manzambi
J. Manzambi
M · SC
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 29 pass
M. Eggestein
M. Eggestein
M · SC
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 44 pass
L. Höler
L. Höler
M · SC
7.70
1 shots · 22 pass
B. Zivzivadze
B. Zivzivadze
F · 1.
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
M. Ginter
M. Ginter
D · SC
7.30
1 shots · 48 pass
V. Grifo
V. Grifo
M · SC
7.30
2 👟
· 27 pass
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Atubolu G 92 6.30 — — — 43 27% — — —
C. Günter D 78 6.30 — — — 21 13% 2 — —
I. Ogbus D 92 7.20 — — — 38 33% 4 — —
M. Ginter D 92 7.30 — — 1 48 36% 3 — —
L. Kübler D 85 6.70 — — — 22 18% 2 — —
J. Manzambi M 68 8.30 1 — 3 29 25% 2 — —
M. Eggestein M 92 7.90 1 — 1 44 40% 1 — —
V. Grifo M 92 7.30 — 2 — 27 21% — — —
L. Höler M 92 7.70 — — 1 22 16% 2 1 —
D. Scherhant M 68 6.50 — — 1 10 7% — — —
I. Matanović F 68 6.30 — — 2 9 5% — — —
J. Beste D 24 6.90 — — — 11 8% 1 — —
J. Makengo D 14 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
Nicolas Höfler M 24 6.70 — — — 5 4% — — —
P. Lienhart D 7 — — — — 1 — — — —
Y. Suzuki M 24 6.90 — — 1 9 7% 1 — —
1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Ramaj G 92 6.60 — — — 62 43% — — —
Hennes Behrens D 92 7.30 — — — 34 27% 3 — —
D 92 6.90 — — — 48 44% 2 — —
P. Mainka D 92 6.20 — — — 40 34% — — —
M. Busch D 92 6.30 — — — 34 27% 1 — —
J. Niehues M 45 6.60 — — — 17 15% — — —
M. Honsak M 76 6.70 — 1 2 15 12% — — —
N. Dorsch M 76 6.20 — — 1 30 29% — — —
J. Schöppner M 92 6.90 — — — 28 24% 1 — —
A. Ibrahimović M 72 6.50 — — 1 22 16% — — —
M. Pieringer F 92 6.30 — — 1 22 16% 1 — —
A. Beck M 16 6.60 — — — 7 7% — — —
B. Zivzivadze F 47 7.50 1 — 1 14 10% — — —
S. Schimmer F 16 6.70 — — 2 4 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
The final score was SC Freiburg 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
The model assigned 59% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 21% to a draw, and 19% to an 1. FC Heidenheim win.