Europa League
· Final
May 20, 2026 21:00
41'
(ast. M. Rogers)
Y. Tielemans
45'+3
(ast. J. McGinn)
E. Buendia
58'
(ast. E. Buendia)
M. Rogers
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aston Villa a 49% win probability (draw 19%, SC Freiburg 31%). The final result was SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston Villa.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
0.22
Actual xG
2.08
3
Saves
2
51%
Possession
49%
1
Corners
8
16
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
P. Treu
5'
15'
E. Buendia
21'
M. Cash
41'
ast. M. Rogers ·
Y. Tielemans⚽
45'+3
ast. J. McGinn ·
E. Buendia⚽
58'
ast. E. Buendia ·
M. Rogers⚽
P. Lienhart
/ M. Rosenfelder
61'
N. Hofler
/ L. Holer
61'
66'
A. Onana
/
V. Lindelof
V. Grifo
/ D. Scherhant
73'
L. Kubler
/ J. Makengo
73'
81'
J. Sancho
/
E. Buendia
81'
I. Maatsen
/
L. Digne
84'
J. McGinn
J. Beste
/ C. Gunter
86'
88'
T. Mings
/
P. Torres
88'
Douglas Luiz
/
Y. Tielemans
Pre-match prediction
31.08%
SC
19.6%
X
49.32%
Aston ←
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
49.32%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.94
0.22
-1.72
2.49
2.08
-0.41
Aston Villa dominated by xG (2.08 vs 0.22).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
N. Atubolu
G
N. Atubolu
G
29
Philipp Treu
D
Philipp Treu
D
3
Philipp Lienhart
61'
D
Philipp Lienhart
61'
D
28
Matthias Ginter
D
Matthias Ginter
D
17
Lukas Kübler
73'
D
Lukas Kübler
73'
D
27
Nicolas Höfler
61'
M
Nicolas Höfler
61'
M
8
Maximilian Eggestein
M
Maximilian Eggestein
M
32
Vincenzo Grifo
73'
M
Vincenzo Grifo
73'
M
44
J. Manzambi
M
J. Manzambi
M
19
Jan-Niklas Beste
86'
M
Jan-Niklas Beste
86'
M
31
Igor Matanović
F
Igor Matanović
F
Bench
5
Anthony Jung
D
Anthony Jung
D
30
Christian Günter
4'
D
Christian Günter
4'
D
22
Cyriaque Irié
F
Cyriaque Irié
F
7
Derry Scherhant
17'
F
Derry Scherhant
17'
F
21
F. Müller
G
F. Müller
G
43
I. Ogbus
D
I. Ogbus
D
24
Jannik Huth
G
Jannik Huth
G
33
Jordy Makengo
17'
D
Jordy Makengo
17'
D
9
Lucas Höler
29'
F
Lucas Höler
29'
F
26
Maximilian Philipp
F
Maximilian Philipp
F
37
Maximilian Rosenfelder
29'
D
Maximilian Rosenfelder
29'
D
6
P. Osterhage
M
P. Osterhage
M
23
E. Martínez
G
E. Martínez
G
12
L. Digne
81'
D
L. Digne
81'
D
14
Pau Torres
88'
D
Pau Torres
88'
D
4
E. Konsa
D
E. Konsa
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Y. Tielemans
1 ⚽
88'
M
Y. Tielemans
1 ⚽
88'
M
3
V. Lindelöf
66'
M
V. Lindelöf
66'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
27
M. Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
M. Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
7
J. McGinn
1 👟
M
J. McGinn
1 👟
M
11
O. Watkins
F
O. Watkins
F
Bench
24
Amadou Onana
24'
M
Amadou Onana
24'
M
16
Andrés García
D
Andrés García
D
21
Douglas Luiz
2'
M
Douglas Luiz
2'
M
9
H. Elliott
M
H. Elliott
M
22
I. Maatsen
9'
D
I. Maatsen
9'
D
19
Jadon Sancho
9'
F
Jadon Sancho
9'
F
64
J. Wright
G
J. Wright
G
31
L. Bailey
F
L. Bailey
F
26
L. Bogarde
M
L. Bogarde
M
40
M. Bizot
G
M. Bizot
G
18
T. Abraham
F
T. Abraham
F
5
T. Mings
2'
D
T. Mings
2'
D
Best on the pitch
Y. Tielemans
M · Aston
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 29 pass
M. Rogers
M · Aston
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 15 pass
J. McGinn
M · Aston
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 25 pass
E. Martínez
G · Aston
7.00
· 34 pass
Maximilian Rosenfelder
D · SC
6.90
1 shots
· 26 pass
SC Freiburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Atubolu | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Philipp Treu | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Matthias Ginter | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| Lukas Kübler | D | 73 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Höfler | M | 61 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| Maximilian Eggestein | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Vincenzo Grifo | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | M | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Igor Matanović | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Christian Günter | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Derry Scherhant | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Jordy Makengo | D | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Höler | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Maximilian Rosenfelder | D | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Martínez | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | — | — | — |
| L. Digne | D | 81 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 50 | 44% | — | — | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 41% | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 88 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 81 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 22% | 2 | 1 | — |
| O. Watkins | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| I. Maatsen | D | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| T. Mings | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
The final score was SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 31% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 19% to a draw, and 49% to an Aston Villa win.