Europa League
· Final
May 20, 2026 21:00
41'
(ast. M. Rogers)
Y. Tielemans
45'+3
(ast. J. McGinn)
E. Buendia
58'
(ast. E. Buendia)
M. Rogers
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Aston Villa a 49% win probability (draw 19%, SC Freiburg 31%). The final result was SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston Villa.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
0.22
Actual xG
2.08
3
Saves
2
51%
Possession
49%
1
Corners
8
16
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
P. Treu
5'
15'
E. Buendia
21'
M. Cash
41'
ast. M. Rogers ·
Y. Tielemans⚽
45'+3
ast. J. McGinn ·
E. Buendia⚽
58'
ast. E. Buendia ·
M. Rogers⚽
P. Lienhart
/ M. Rosenfelder
61'
N. Hofler
/ L. Holer
61'
66'
A. Onana
/
V. Lindelof
V. Grifo
/ D. Scherhant
73'
L. Kubler
/ J. Makengo
73'
81'
J. Sancho
/
E. Buendia
81'
I. Maatsen
/
L. Digne
84'
J. McGinn
J. Beste
/ C. Gunter
86'
88'
T. Mings
/
P. Torres
88'
Douglas Luiz
/
Y. Tielemans
Pre-match prediction
31.08%
SC
19.6%
X
49.32%
Aston ←
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
49.32%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.94
0.22
-1.72
2.49
2.08
-0.41
Aston Villa dominated by xG (2.08 vs 0.22).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Noah Atubolu
G
Noah Atubolu
G
29
Philipp Treu
D
Philipp Treu
D
3
Philipp Lienhart
61'
D
Philipp Lienhart
61'
D
28
Matthias Ginter
D
Matthias Ginter
D
17
Lukas Kübler
73'
D
Lukas Kübler
73'
D
27
Nicolas Höfler
61'
M
Nicolas Höfler
61'
M
8
M. Eggestein
M
M. Eggestein
M
32
V. Grifo
73'
M
V. Grifo
73'
M
44
J. Manzambi
M
J. Manzambi
M
19
J. Beste
86'
M
J. Beste
86'
M
31
I. Matanović
F
I. Matanović
F
Bench
5
Anthony Jung
D
Anthony Jung
D
43
Bruno Ogbus
D
Bruno Ogbus
D
30
Christian Günter
4'
D
Christian Günter
4'
D
22
Cyriaque Irié
F
7
Derry Scherhant
17'
F
Derry Scherhant
17'
F
21
Florian Müller
G
Florian Müller
G
24
Jannik Huth
G
Jannik Huth
G
33
Jordy Makengo
17'
D
Jordy Makengo
17'
D
9
L. Höler
29'
F
L. Höler
29'
F
26
Maximilian Philipp
F
Maximilian Philipp
F
37
Maximilian Rosenfelder
29'
D
Maximilian Rosenfelder
29'
D
6
Patrick Osterhage
M
Patrick Osterhage
M
23
Emiliano Martínez
G
Emiliano Martínez
G
12
Lucas Digne
81'
D
Lucas Digne
81'
D
14
Pau Torres
88'
D
Pau Torres
88'
D
4
Ezri Konsa
D
Ezri Konsa
D
2
M. Cash
D
M. Cash
D
8
Youri Tielemans
1 ⚽
88'
M
Youri Tielemans
1 ⚽
88'
M
3
V. Lindelöf
66'
M
V. Lindelöf
66'
M
10
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
E. Buendía
1 ⚽
1 👟
81'
M
27
Morgan Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
Morgan Rogers
1 ⚽
1 👟
M
7
John McGinn
1 👟
M
John McGinn
1 👟
M
11
Ollie Watkins
F
Ollie Watkins
F
Bench
24
Amadou Onana
24'
M
Amadou Onana
24'
M
16
Andrés García
D
Andrés García
D
21
Douglas Luiz
2'
M
Douglas Luiz
2'
M
9
Harvey Elliott
M
Harvey Elliott
M
22
Ian Maatsen
9'
D
Ian Maatsen
9'
D
19
Jadon Sancho
9'
F
Jadon Sancho
9'
F
64
James Wright
G
James Wright
G
26
Lamare Bogarde
M
Lamare Bogarde
M
31
L. Bailey
F
L. Bailey
F
40
M. Bizot
G
M. Bizot
G
18
Tammy Abraham
F
Tammy Abraham
F
5
Tyrone Mings
2'
D
Tyrone Mings
2'
D
Best on the pitch
Youri Tielemans
M · Aston
8.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
E. Buendía
M · Aston
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 29 pass
Morgan Rogers
M · Aston
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 15 pass
John McGinn
M · Aston
7.30
1 👟
1 shots
· 25 pass
Emiliano Martínez
G · Aston
7.00
· 34 pass
Maximilian Rosenfelder
D · SC
6.90
1 shots
· 26 pass
SC Freiburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Atubolu | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Philipp Treu | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Matthias Ginter | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| Lukas Kübler | D | 73 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Höfler | M | 61 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Eggestein | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Grifo | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 35 | 27% | — | — | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Beste | M | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Christian Günter | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Derry Scherhant | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Jordy Makengo | D | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Höler | F | 29 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Maximilian Rosenfelder | D | 29 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
Aston Villa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Digne | D | 81 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Pau Torres | D | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 50 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Ezri Konsa | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 44 | 41% | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Youri Tielemans | M | 88 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Lindelöf | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 81 | 8.30 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 23% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Morgan Rogers | M | 90 | 7.60 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| John McGinn | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 25 | 22% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Ollie Watkins | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Amadou Onana | M | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Ian Maatsen | D | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Jadon Sancho | F | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Tyrone Mings | D | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
The final score was SC Freiburg 0–3 Aston Villa.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa?
The model assigned 31% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 19% to a draw, and 49% to an Aston Villa win.