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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7 October 25, 2026 17:30 Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg
SC Freiburg
#3 · 13 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Bayern München
#1 · 17 pts
Tom Bischof 82' (og)
16' (ast. Michael Olise) Dayot Upamecano
42' (ast. Nathaniel Brown) Serge Gnabry
90'+5 Michael Olise
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 41% win probability (draw 28%, SC Freiburg 30%). The final result was SC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern München. In 2 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Bayern München.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
17
4
Shots on target
9
0.97
Actual xG
3.05
6
Saves
4
44%
Possession
56%
5
Corners
6
19
Tackles
18
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
16'
ast. Michael Olise · Dayot Upamecano⚽
Lucas Höler
25'
42'
ast. Nathaniel Brown · Serge Gnabry⚽
Jan-Niklas Beste
55'
↕ Lucas Höler / Igor Matanović
57'
↕ Patrick Osterhage / Rihito Yamamoto
58'
61'
Sacha Boey / Josip Stanišić ↕
61'
Ismael Saibari / Serge Gnabry ↕
↕ Jan-Niklas Beste / Cyriaque Irié
64'
65'
Jonathan Tah
73'
Alphonso Davies / Nathaniel Brown ↕
↕ Derry Lionel Scherhant / Vincenzo Grifo
77'
↕ Philipp Lienhart / Maximilian Rosenfelder
77'
⚽Tom Bischof (og)
82'
Maximilian Eggestein
85'
86'
Hiroki Ito / Lennart Karl ↕
90'+5
Michael Olise⚽
Pre-match prediction
30.43%
SC
28.06%
X
41.51%
Bayern ←
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München) 41.51% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
1.58
0.97
-0.61
Bayern
1.65
3.05
+1.4
Bayern München dominated by xG (3.05 vs 0.97). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 M. Backhaus M. Backhaus G 6.90
33 J. Makengo J. Makengo D 5.95
3 P. Lienhart P. Lienhart 77' D 6.36
28 M. Ginter M. Ginter D 6.62
29 P. Treu P. Treu D 6.31
6 P. Osterhage P. Osterhage 58' M 6.06
8 M. Eggestein M. Eggestein M 6.16
7 D. Scherhant D. Scherhant 77' M 5.99
14 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki M 6.45
19 J. Beste J. Beste 64' M 5.76
9 L. Höler L. Höler 57' F 6.15
Bench
30 C. Günter C. Günter D 0.00
22 Cyriaque Kalou Irié Cyriaque Kalou Irié 26' F 6.37
21 F. Müller F. Müller G 0.00
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović 33' F 6.94
42 K. Goto K. Goto F 0.00
17 L. Kübler L. Kübler D 0.00
37 M. Rosenfelder M. Rosenfelder 13' D 5.88
20 R. Yamamoto R. Yamamoto 32' M 5.81
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo 13' M 6.32
Bayern München Bayern München 4-2-3-1
40 J. Urbig J. Urbig G 7.51
11 N. Brown N. Brown 1 👟 73' D 7.32
4 J. Tah J. Tah D 6.68
2 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano 1 ⚽ D 7.83
44 J. Stanišić J. Stanišić 61' D 6.79
8 T. Bischof T. Bischof 1 ⚽ M 6.16
27 K. Laimer K. Laimer M 7.05
7 S. Gnabry S. Gnabry 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.87
42 L. Karl L. Karl 86' M 6.32
17 M. Olise M. Olise 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.00
9 H. Kane H. Kane F 6.43
Bench
19 A. Davies A. Davies 17' D 6.70
30 Cassiano Kiala Cassiano Kiala D 0.00
47 David Daiber David Daiber M 0.00
21 H. Ito H. Ito 4' D 6.62
34 I. Saibari I. Saibari 29' M 6.78
23 S. Boey S. Boey 29' D 7.08
26 S. Ulreich S. Ulreich G 0.00
46 T. Binder T. Binder M 0.00
Best on the pitch
M. Olise
M. Olise
M · Bayern
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots · 43 pass
S. Gnabry
S. Gnabry
M · Bayern
7.87
1 ⚽
3 shots · 28 pass
D. Upamecano
D. Upamecano
D · Bayern
7.83
1 ⚽
2 shots · 63 pass
J. Urbig
J. Urbig
G · Bayern
7.51
· 55 pass
N. Brown
N. Brown
D · Bayern
7.32
1 👟
2 shots · 33 pass
S. Boey
S. Boey
D · Bayern
7.08
· 12 pass
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Backhaus G 90 6.90 — — 0 46 31% 0 — —
J. Makengo D 90 5.95 — — 0 31 25% 2 — —
P. Lienhart D 77 6.36 — — 0 57 51% 2 — —
M. Ginter D 90 6.62 — — 1 59 51% 0 — —
P. Treu D 90 6.31 — — 0 39 34% 1 — —
P. Osterhage M 58 6.06 — — 1 18 14% 3 — —
M. Eggestein M 90 6.16 — — 1 41 38% 3 1 —
D. Scherhant M 77 5.99 — — 1 16 12% 3 — —
Y. Suzuki M 90 6.45 — — 1 19 15% 3 — —
J. Beste M 64 5.76 — — 2 16 9% 0 1 —
L. Höler F 57 6.15 — — 3 10 6% 0 1 —
Cyriaque Kalou Irié F 26 6.37 — — 1 9 8% 1 — —
I. Matanović F 33 6.94 — — 4 6 6% 1 — —
M. Rosenfelder D 13 5.88 — — 0 11 9% 0 — —
R. Yamamoto M 32 5.81 — — 0 19 16% 0 — —
V. Grifo M 13 6.32 — — 1 9 8% 0 — —
Bayern München Bayern München — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Urbig G 90 7.51 — — 0 55 40% 0 — —
N. Brown D 73 7.32 — 1 2 33 28% 0 — —
J. Tah D 90 6.68 — — 0 66 60% 2 1 —
D. Upamecano D 90 7.83 1 — 2 63 58% 4 — —
J. Stanišić D 61 6.79 — — 0 31 28% 0 — —
T. Bischof M 90 6.16 1 — 0 60 50% 2 — —
K. Laimer M 90 7.05 — — 0 49 46% 1 — —
S. Gnabry M 61 7.87 1 — 3 28 22% 2 — —
L. Karl M 86 6.32 — — 1 29 21% 2 — —
M. Olise M 90 9.00 1 1 3 43 34% 1 — —
H. Kane F 90 6.43 — — 2 32 27% 1 — —
A. Davies D 17 6.70 — — 0 7 3% 1 — —
H. Ito D 4 6.62 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
I. Saibari M 29 6.78 — — 4 13 12% 1 — —
S. Boey D 29 7.08 — — 0 12 9% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
The final score was SC Freiburg 1–3 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 30% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 28% to a draw, and 41% to an Bayern München win.