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Europa League · Quarter-finals April 09, 2026 21:00
SC Freiburg
#7 · 17 pts
3 – 0
Final score
Celta Vigo
#16 · 13 pts
V. Grifo (ast. J. Manzambi) 10'
J. Beste (ast. I. Matanovic) 32'
M. Ginter (ast. J. Beste) 78'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Freiburg a 51% win probability (draw 20%, Celta Vigo 27%). The final result was SC Freiburg 3–0 Celta Vigo. In 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Celta Vigo.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
3
7
Shots on target
0
1.56
Actual xG
0.58
0
Saves
4
52%
Possession
48%
3
Corners
0
19
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽V. Grifo · ast. J. Manzambi
10'
⚽J. Beste · ast. I. Matanovic
32'
46'
J. El Abdellaoui / W. Swedberg ↕
46'
F. Lopez / J. Rodriguez ↕
61'
M. Vecino / H. Sotelo ↕
73'
P. Duran / F. Jutgla ↕
73'
I. Aspas / B. Iglesias ↕
↕ V. Grifo / L. Holer
74'
↕ Y. Suzuki / D. Scherhant
74'
⚽M. Ginter · ast. J. Beste
78'
↕ J. Beste / L. Kubler
89'
M. Eggestein
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
51.76%
SC ←
20.85%
X
27.39%
Celta
we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 51.76% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
2.10
1.56
-0.54
Celta
1.79
0.58
-1.21
SC Freiburg dominated by xG (1.56 vs 0.58). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lyon Lyon 8 21
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 8 21
3 FC Midtjylland FC Midtjylland 8 19
4 Real Betis Real Betis 8 17
5 FC Porto FC Porto 8 17
6 SC Braga SC Braga 8 17
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 8 17
8 AS Roma AS Roma 8 16
9 Genk Genk 8 16
10 Bologna Bologna 8 15
11 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 8 15
12 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 8 15
13 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 8 14
14 Plzen Plzen 8 14
15 FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena Zvezda 8 14
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 8 13
17 PAOK PAOK 8 12
18 Lille Lille 8 12
19 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 8 12
20 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 8 12
21 Celtic Celtic 8 11
22 Ludogorets Ludogorets 8 10
23 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 8 10
24 Brann Brann 8 9
25 BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys 8 9
26 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 8 7
27 FCSB FCSB 8 7
28 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles 8 7
29 Feyenoord Feyenoord 8 6
30 FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893 8 6
31 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 8 6
32 Rangers Rangers 8 4
33 Nice Nice 8 3
34 Utrecht Utrecht 8 1
35 Malmo FF Malmo FF 8 1
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv 8 1
Lineups
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 Noah Atubolu Noah Atubolu G 6.90
33 Jordy Makengo Jordy Makengo D 7.00
3 Philipp Lienhart Philipp Lienhart D 7.00
28 Matthias Ginter Matthias Ginter 1 ⚽ D 8.60
29 Philipp Treu Philipp Treu D 7.60
44 Johan Manzambi Johan Manzambi 1 👟 M 8.30
8 Maximilian Eggestein Maximilian Eggestein M 7.60
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo 1 ⚽ 74' M 7.90
14 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki 74' M 6.90
19 J. Beste J. Beste 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' M 8.30
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović 1 👟 F 7.30
Bench
43 Bruno Ogbus Bruno Ogbus D
30 Christian Günter Christian Günter D
22 Cyriaque Irié Cyriaque Irié F
7 Derry Scherhant Derry Scherhant 16' F 7.20
9 L. Höler L. Höler 16' F 6.70
17 Lukas Kübler Lukas Kübler 1' D
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler M
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-4-3
13 Ionuț Radu Ionuț Radu G 7.20
20 Marcos Alonso Marcos Alonso D 6.70
4
D 5.60
32 Javi Rodríguez Javi Rodríguez 45' D 6.30
5
M 6.50
6 I. Moriba I. Moriba M 6.90
22 Hugo Sotelo Hugo Sotelo 61' M 6.90
3 Óscar Mingueza Óscar Mingueza M 6.30
19 Williot Swedberg Williot Swedberg 45' F 6.30
7 Borja Iglesias Borja Iglesias 73' F 6.20
9 Ferran Jutglà Ferran Jutglà 73' F 6.20
Bench
14 Alvaro Núñez Alvaro Núñez D
36 Andrés Antañón Andrés Antañón M
30 Fer López Fer López 45' M 6.20
10 Iago Aspas Iago Aspas 17' F 6.50
15
M. Vecino 29' M 6.30
18 Pablo Durán Pablo Durán 17' F 6.50
29 Yoel Lago Yoel Lago D
Best on the pitch
Matthias Ginter
Matthias Ginter
D · SC
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 67 pass
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi
M · SC
8.30
1 👟
2 shots · 52 pass
J. Beste
J. Beste
M · SC
8.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 35 pass
V. Grifo
V. Grifo
M · SC
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 30 pass
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu
D · SC
7.60
· 61 pass
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein
M · SC
7.60
1 shots · 55 pass
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Noah Atubolu G 90 6.90 — — — 41 33% — — —
Jordy Makengo D 90 7.00 — — — 34 26% 2 — —
Philipp Lienhart D 90 7.00 — — — 65 56% 1 — —
Matthias Ginter D 90 8.60 1 — 1 67 61% 3 — —
Philipp Treu D 90 7.60 — — — 61 59% — — —
Johan Manzambi M 90 8.30 — 1 2 52 44% 3 — —
Maximilian Eggestein M 90 7.60 — — 1 55 50% 2 1 —
V. Grifo M 74 7.90 1 — 2 30 24% — — —
Y. Suzuki M 74 6.90 — — — 31 25% 2 — —
J. Beste M 89 8.30 1 1 1 35 33% 2 — —
I. Matanović F 90 7.30 — 1 1 19 12% 4 — —
Derry Scherhant F 16 7.20 — — — 6 5% — — —
L. Höler F 16 6.70 — — 1 7 7% — — —
Lukas Kübler D 1 — — — — 2 2% — — —
Celta Vigo Celta Vigo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ionuț Radu G 90 7.20 — — — 22 13% — — —
Marcos Alonso D 90 6.70 — — — 76 67% 2 — —
D 90 5.60 — — — 38 35% 1 — —
Javi Rodríguez D 45 6.30 — — — 29 27% — — —
M 90 6.50 — — — 54 50% 1 — —
I. Moriba M 90 6.90 — — — 37 35% 3 — —
Hugo Sotelo M 61 6.90 — — — 46 42% 2 — —
Óscar Mingueza M 90 6.30 — — — 53 38% 4 — —
Williot Swedberg F 45 6.30 — — — 9 6% 1 — —
Borja Iglesias F 73 6.20 — — 2 18 15% — — —
Ferran Jutglà F 73 6.20 — — — 16 13% — — —
Fer López M 45 6.20 — — 1 25 19% 2 — —
Iago Aspas F 17 6.50 — — — 8 4% — — —
M. Vecino M 29 6.30 — — — 23 16% 1 — —
Pablo Durán F 17 6.50 — — — 8 7% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs Celta Vigo?
The final score was SC Freiburg 3–0 Celta Vigo.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs Celta Vigo?
The model assigned 51% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 20% to a draw, and 27% to an Celta Vigo win.