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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
SC Freiburg
#3 · 10 pts
4 – 1
Final score
RB Leipzig
#9 · 6 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction RB Leipzig, result SC Freiburg wins
J. Beste 24'
I. Matanovic (ast. J. Manzambi) 26'
M. Ginter (ast. J. Makengo) 47'
D. Scherhant (ast. I. Matanovic) 75'
33' (ast. Y. Diomande) A. Ouedraogo
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 56% win probability (draw 18%, SC Freiburg 25%). The final result was SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig. In 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for RB Leipzig.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
6
1.53
Actual xG
0.99
5
Saves
1
41%
Possession
59%
1
Corners
2
24
Tackles
22
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Beste
24'
⚽I. Matanovic · ast. J. Manzambi
26'
33'
ast. Y. Diomande · A. Ouedraogo⚽
⚽M. Ginter · ast. J. Makengo
47'
↕ J. Beste / V. Grifo
60'
↕ N. Hofler / L. Kubler
60'
63'
R. Baku / B. Henrichs ↕
64'
A. Nusa / B. Gruda ↕
↕ M. Ginter / B. Ogbus
72'
↕ J. Manzambi / L. Holer
72'
73'
T. Gomis / N. Seiwald ↕
73'
Romulo Cardoso / C. Harder ↕
⚽D. Scherhant · ast. I. Matanovic
75'
77'
C. Baumgartner
80'
J. Bakayoko / Y. Diomande ↕
↕ I. Matanovic / M. Philipp
88'
Pre-match prediction
25.01%
SC ←
18.26%
X
56.73%
RB
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg) 25.01% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
1.36
1.53
+0.17
RB
2.63
0.99
-1.64
SC Freiburg dominated by xG (1.53 vs 0.99). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4 12
2 Bayern München Bayern München 4 10
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4 10
4 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 4 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 4 7
6 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 4 7
7 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 4 7
8 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4 7
9 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 4 5
11 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 4 5
12 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 4 4
13 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4 4
14 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 4 3
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 4 3
16 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 4 3
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4 1
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0
Lineups
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
1 N. Atubolu N. Atubolu G 7.60
33 J. Makengo J. Makengo 1 👟 D 7.30
3 P. Lienhart P. Lienhart D 6.20
28 M. Ginter M. Ginter 1 ⚽ 72' D 8.00
29 P. Treu P. Treu D 6.50
27 Nicolas Höfler Nicolas Höfler 60' M 6.70
8 M. Eggestein M. Eggestein M 6.70
7 D. Scherhant D. Scherhant 1 ⚽ M 7.60
44 J. Manzambi J. Manzambi 1 👟 72' M 7.30
19 J. Beste J. Beste 1 ⚽ 60' M 7.30
31 I. Matanović I. Matanović 1 ⚽ 1 👟 86' F 8.20
Bench
5 Anthony Jung Anthony Jung D
30 C. Günter C. Günter D
22 Cyriaque Kalou Irié Cyriaque Kalou Irié F
21 F. Müller F. Müller G
43 I. Ogbus I. Ogbus 20' D 6.70
9 L. Höler L. Höler 20' F 6.70
17 L. Kübler L. Kübler 32' D 6.90
26 Maximilian Philipp Maximilian Philipp 6' F
32 V. Grifo V. Grifo 32' M 6.90
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
1 P. Gulácsi P. Gulácsi G 5.90
35 Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe D 6.20
23 C. Lukeba C. Lukeba D 6.70
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán D 6.30
39 B. Henrichs B. Henrichs 63' D 5.90
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner M 6.30
13 N. Seiwald N. Seiwald 73' M 6.90
20 A. Ouédraogo A. Ouédraogo 1 ⚽ M 7.30
49
Y. Diomande 1 👟 80' F 7.00
11 C. Harder C. Harder 73' F 6.30
10 B. Gruda B. Gruda 63' F 7.00
Bench
7 A. Nusa A. Nusa 29' M 6.30
6 E. Banzuzi E. Banzuzi M
5 El Chadaille Bitshiabu El Chadaille Bitshiabu D
9 J. Bakayoko J. Bakayoko 12' F 6.50
26 M. Vandevoordt M. Vandevoordt G
17 R. Baku R. Baku 29' D 6.20
40 Rômulo Rômulo 19' F 6.50
27 T. Gomis T. Gomis 19' F 6.20
24 X. Schlager X. Schlager M
Best on the pitch
I. Matanović
I. Matanović
F · SC
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 22 pass
M. Ginter
M. Ginter
D · SC
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 42 pass
N. Atubolu
N. Atubolu
G · SC
7.60
· 38 pass
D. Scherhant
D. Scherhant
M · SC
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 16 pass
J. Makengo
J. Makengo
D · SC
7.30
1 👟
· 30 pass
J. Manzambi
J. Manzambi
M · SC
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 21 pass
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Atubolu G 92 7.60 — — — 38 29% — — —
J. Makengo D 92 7.30 — 1 — 30 26% 3 — —
P. Lienhart D 92 6.20 — — — 39 31% — — —
M. Ginter D 72 8.00 1 — 2 42 38% 1 — —
P. Treu D 92 6.50 — — 1 33 29% 5 — —
Nicolas Höfler M 60 6.70 — — — 13 11% 3 — —
M. Eggestein M 92 6.70 — — — 32 27% 2 — —
D. Scherhant M 92 7.60 1 — 2 16 12% 3 — —
J. Manzambi M 72 7.30 — 1 2 21 18% 1 — —
J. Beste M 60 7.30 1 — 1 24 20% — — —
I. Matanović F 86 8.20 1 1 1 22 13% — — —
I. Ogbus D 20 6.70 — — — 7 7% 1 — —
L. Höler F 20 6.70 — — 1 — — — — —
L. Kübler D 32 6.90 — — — 11 5% 3 — —
Maximilian Philipp F 6 — — — — 1 — — — —
V. Grifo M 32 6.90 — — — 9 9% 2 — —
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
P. Gulácsi G 92 5.90 — — — 31 28% — — —
Max Finkgräfe D 92 6.20 — — — 47 42% 6 — —
C. Lukeba D 92 6.70 — — — 88 79% 4 — —
W. Orbán D 92 6.30 — — — 82 74% 2 — —
B. Henrichs D 63 5.90 — — — 25 21% 1 — —
C. Baumgartner M 92 6.30 — — 2 42 33% 2 1 —
N. Seiwald M 73 6.90 — — — 46 43% 5 — —
A. Ouédraogo M 92 7.30 1 — 2 23 23% 1 — —
Y. Diomande F 80 7.00 — 1 3 23 18% — — —
C. Harder F 73 6.30 — — 2 12 9% — — —
B. Gruda F 63 7.00 — — — 17 15% — — —
A. Nusa M 29 6.30 — — — 8 7% 1 — —
J. Bakayoko F 12 6.50 — — — 8 7% — — —
R. Baku D 29 6.20 — — 1 20 18% — — —
Rômulo F 19 6.50 — — — 6 4% — — —
T. Gomis F 19 6.20 — — — 3 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
The final score was SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
The model assigned 25% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 18% to a draw, and 56% to an RB Leipzig win.