✗Model wrong — prediction RB Leipzig, result SC Freiburg wins
J. Beste
24'
I. Matanovic
(ast. J. Manzambi)
26'
M. Ginter
(ast. J. Makengo)
47'
D. Scherhant
(ast. I. Matanovic)
75'
33'
(ast. Y. Diomande)
A. Ouedraogo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 56% win probability (draw 18%, SC Freiburg 25%). The final result was SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig. In 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for RB Leipzig.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
10
5
Shots on target
6
1.53
Actual xG
0.99
5
Saves
1
41%
Possession
59%
1
Corners
2
24
Tackles
22
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Beste
24'
⚽I. Matanovic
· ast. J. Manzambi
26'
33'
ast. Y. Diomande ·
A. Ouedraogo⚽
⚽M. Ginter
· ast. J. Makengo
47'
J. Beste
/ V. Grifo
60'
N. Hofler
/ L. Kubler
60'
63'
R. Baku
/
B. Henrichs
64'
A. Nusa
/
B. Gruda
M. Ginter
/ B. Ogbus
72'
J. Manzambi
/ L. Holer
72'
73'
T. Gomis
/
N. Seiwald
73'
Romulo Cardoso
/
C. Harder
⚽D. Scherhant
· ast. I. Matanovic
75'
77'
C. Baumgartner
80'
J. Bakayoko
/
Y. Diomande
I. Matanovic
/ M. Philipp
88'
Pre-match prediction
25.01%
SC ←
18.26%
X
56.73%
RB
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg)
25.01%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.36
1.53
+0.17
2.63
0.99
-1.64
SC Freiburg dominated by xG (1.53 vs 0.99).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Noah Atubolu
G
Noah Atubolu
G
33
Jordy Makengo
1 👟
D
Jordy Makengo
1 👟
D
3
Philipp Lienhart
D
Philipp Lienhart
D
28
Matthias Ginter
1 ⚽
72'
D
Matthias Ginter
1 ⚽
72'
D
29
Philipp Treu
D
Philipp Treu
D
27
Nicolas Höfler
60'
M
Nicolas Höfler
60'
M
8
M. Eggestein
M
M. Eggestein
M
7
Derry Scherhant
1 ⚽
M
Derry Scherhant
1 ⚽
M
44
J. Manzambi
1 👟
72'
M
J. Manzambi
1 👟
72'
M
19
J. Beste
1 ⚽
60'
M
J. Beste
1 ⚽
60'
M
31
Igor Matanović
1 ⚽
1 👟
86'
F
Igor Matanović
1 ⚽
1 👟
86'
F
Bench
5
Anthony Jung
D
Anthony Jung
D
43
Bruno Ogbus
20'
D
Bruno Ogbus
20'
D
30
Christian Günter
D
Christian Günter
D
22
Cyriaque Irié
F
21
Florian Müller
G
Florian Müller
G
9
L. Höler
20'
F
L. Höler
20'
F
17
Lukas Kübler
32'
D
Lukas Kübler
32'
D
26
Maximilian Philipp
6'
F
Maximilian Philipp
6'
F
32
V. Grifo
32'
M
V. Grifo
32'
M
1
Péter Gulácsi
G
Péter Gulácsi
G
35
Max Finkgräfe
D
Max Finkgräfe
D
23
Castello Lukeba
D
Castello Lukeba
D
4
W. Orbán
D
W. Orbán
D
39
Benjamin Henrichs
63'
D
Benjamin Henrichs
63'
D
14
C. Baumgartner
M
C. Baumgartner
M
13
Nicolas Seiwald
73'
M
Nicolas Seiwald
73'
M
20
Assan Ouédraogo
1 ⚽
M
Assan Ouédraogo
1 ⚽
M
49
Yan Diomande
1 👟
80'
F
Yan Diomande
1 👟
80'
F
11
Conrad Harder
73'
F
Conrad Harder
73'
F
10
Brajan Gruda
63'
F
Brajan Gruda
63'
F
Bench
7
A. Nusa
29'
M
A. Nusa
29'
M
6
E. Banzuzi
M
E. Banzuzi
M
5
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
D
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
D
9
Johan Bakayoko
12'
F
Johan Bakayoko
12'
F
26
Maarten Vandevoordt
G
Maarten Vandevoordt
G
17
Ridle Baku
29'
D
Ridle Baku
29'
D
40
Rômulo
19'
F
Rômulo
19'
F
27
Tidiam Gomis
19'
F
Tidiam Gomis
19'
F
24
Xaver Schlager
M
Xaver Schlager
M
Best on the pitch
Igor Matanović
F · SC
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 22 pass
Matthias Ginter
D · SC
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 42 pass
Noah Atubolu
G · SC
7.60
· 38 pass
Derry Scherhant
M · SC
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
Jordy Makengo
D · SC
7.30
1 👟
· 30 pass
J. Manzambi
M · SC
7.30
1 👟
2 shots
· 21 pass
SC Freiburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Atubolu | G | 92 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Jordy Makengo | D | 92 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 30 | 26% | 3 | — | — |
| Philipp Lienhart | D | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Matthias Ginter | D | 72 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 42 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Philipp Treu | D | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 29% | 5 | — | — |
| Nicolas Höfler | M | 60 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Eggestein | M | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Derry Scherhant | M | 92 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Manzambi | M | 72 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Beste | M | 60 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Igor Matanović | F | 86 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Ogbus | D | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Höler | F | 20 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Kübler | D | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 5% | 3 | — | — |
| Maximilian Philipp | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| V. Grifo | M | 32 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
RB Leipzig — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Péter Gulácsi | G | 92 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Max Finkgräfe | D | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 42% | 6 | — | — |
| Castello Lukeba | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 88 | 79% | 4 | — | — |
| W. Orbán | D | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 82 | 74% | 2 | — | — |
| Benjamin Henrichs | D | 63 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Baumgartner | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 33% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Nicolas Seiwald | M | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 43% | 5 | — | — |
| Assan Ouédraogo | M | 92 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 23 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Yan Diomande | F | 80 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 3 | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Conrad Harder | F | 73 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Brajan Gruda | F | 63 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | — | — | — |
| A. Nusa | M | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Johan Bakayoko | F | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Ridle Baku | D | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Rômulo | F | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Tidiam Gomis | F | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
The final score was SC Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig.
What did the model predict before SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
The model assigned 25% probability to a SC Freiburg win, 18% to a draw, and 56% to an RB Leipzig win.