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SC Freiburg - RB Leipzig

Bundesliga May 16, 2026 15:30
SC Freiburg
#7 · 44 pts
vs
RB Leipzig
#3 · 65 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
23.12%
Win
SC Freiburg
17.31%
Draw
59.58%
Win
RB Leipzig
1.36
Expected xG
2.63
Model prediction
RB Leipzig
59.58%
Probability
67.9%
1X2 accuracy · 28 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives RB Leipzig a 59% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 23% for SC Freiburg. Expected goals are 1.4 for SC Freiburg and 2.6 for RB Leipzig (total 4.0), with a 84% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 8.7% probability. In 1 previous meetings, SC Freiburg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for RB Leipzig.

Score Matrix
↕ SC Freiburg RB Leipzig →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.9% 4.9% 6.4% 5.6% 3.7% 2.0%
1 2.5% 6.6% 8.7% 7.6% 5.0% 2.6%
2 1.7% 4.5% 5.9% 5.2% 3.4% 1.8%
3 0.8% 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8%
4 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Recent form
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
L Hamburger SV 3–2
D VfL Wolfsburg 1–1
L Borussia Dortmund 4–0
W 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1
W FSV Mainz 05 0–1
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 26%
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
W FC St. Pauli 2–1
L Bayer Leverkusen 4–1
W Union Berlin 3–1
W Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3
W Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 17%
Playing profile
SC Freiburg SC Freiburg
Attack
35
Defence
54
Form
43
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
Attack
56
Defence
64
Form
62
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
SC Freiburg
0
Draw
1
RB Leipzig
L 14 Jan 2026 Bundesliga 0–2
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives SC Freiburg a 23% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 59% for an RB Leipzig win.
How many goals are expected in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.4, RB Leipzig 2.6 (total 4.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 84%.
What is the most likely score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.7%.