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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7 October 24, 2026 15:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07
#13 · 8 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Hamburger SV
#11 · 9 pts
Rayan Philippe (ast. Felix Götze) 88'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave SC Paderborn 07 a 38% win probability (draw 31%, Hamburger SV 29%). The final result was SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
1
1.21
Actual xG
0.49
1
Saves
5
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
3
11
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
13'
Otto Emerson Stange / Fábio Vieira ↕
45'
Terem Moffi / Yussuf Poulsen ↕
↕ Gabriel Vidović / Tom Baack
45'
53'
Shafiq Nandja
Jano ter Horst
58'
↕ Jano ter Horst / Felix Götze
62'
↕ Steffen Tigges / Marvin Pieringer
62'
↕ Laurin Ulrich / Rayan Philippe
70'
71'
Albert Sambi Lokonga / Miro Muheim ↕
71'
Albert Grönbaek / Bilal Nadir ↕
↕ Stefano Marino / Sven Michel
79'
87'
Albert Sambi Lokonga
⚽Rayan Philippe · ast. Felix Götze
88'
89'
Merlin Polzin
89'
Alexander Rossing Lelesiit / Otto Emerson Stange ↕
Pre-match prediction
38.11%
SC ←
31.92%
X
29.97%
Hamburger
we assigned to the actual result (SC Paderborn 07) 38.11% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
SC
1.31
1.21
-0.1
Hamburger
0.93
0.49
-0.44
SC Paderborn 07 dominated by xG (1.21 vs 0.49). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3-5-2
15 N. Noll N. Noll G 6.87
22 M. Hansen M. Hansen D 7.02
25 T. Scheller T. Scheller D 7.89
21 J. ter Horst J. ter Horst 62' D 6.49
23 R. Obermair R. Obermair M 7.20
40 G. Vidović G. Vidović 45' M 6.64
5 S. Castañeda S. Castañeda M 6.56
28 L. Ulrich L. Ulrich 70' M 6.25
17 L. Curda L. Curda M 6.29
27 S. Tigges S. Tigges 62' F 6.45
30 S. Marino S. Marino 79' F 6.15
Bench
38 D. Zeitler D. Zeitler F 0.00
20 F. Götze F. Götze 1 👟 28' D 7.30
3 Jonah Benedict Sticker Jonah Benedict Sticker D 0.00
18 M. Pieringer M. Pieringer 28' F 6.69
1 M. Schubert M. Schubert G 0.00
9 R. Philippe R. Philippe 1 ⚽ 20' F 7.58
2 Ruben Müller Ruben Müller D 0.00
11 S. Michel S. Michel 11' F 6.85
6 T. Baack T. Baack 45' M 6.89
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3-5-2
1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes Daniel Heuer Fernandes G 6.95
17 W. Omari W. Omari D 6.65
33 S. Bornauw S. Bornauw D 6.92
43 S. Nandja S. Nandja D 5.53
3 D. Møller Wolfe D. Møller Wolfe M 6.33
28 M. Muheim M. Muheim 71' M 6.16
4 B. Nadir B. Nadir 71' M 6.58
5 M. Adeline M. Adeline M 6.29
7 Z. El Ouahdi Z. El Ouahdi M 5.80
20 Fábio Vieira Fábio Vieira 13' F 6.40
15 Y. Poulsen Y. Poulsen 45' F 6.70
Bench
11 A. Grønbæk A. Grønbæk 19' M 6.48
38 Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit 1' F 5.86
6 A. Sambi Lokonga A. Sambi Lokonga 19' M 5.99
48 J. Bissi Mouelle J. Bissi Mouelle D 0.00
22 Kofi Jeremy Amoako Kofi Jeremy Amoako M 0.00
37 L. Lemke L. Lemke D 0.00
19 Otto Emerson Stange Otto Emerson Stange 76' F 6.48
12 S. Tangvik S. Tangvik G 0.00
9 T. Moffi T. Moffi 45' F 6.12
Best on the pitch
T. Scheller
T. Scheller
D · SC
7.89
1 shots · 82 pass
R. Philippe
R. Philippe
F · SC
7.58
1 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
F. Götze
F. Götze
D · SC
7.30
1 👟
· 18 pass
R. Obermair
R. Obermair
M · SC
7.20
2 shots · 43 pass
M. Hansen
M. Hansen
D · SC
7.02
1 shots · 88 pass
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
G · Hamburger
6.95
· 40 pass
SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Noll G 90 6.87 — — 0 44 37% 0 — —
M. Hansen D 90 7.02 — — 1 88 81% 1 — —
T. Scheller D 90 7.89 — — 1 82 74% 2 — —
J. ter Horst D 62 6.49 — — 0 47 43% 2 1 —
R. Obermair M 90 7.20 — — 2 43 33% 1 — —
G. Vidović M 45 6.64 — — 0 20 19% 0 — —
S. Castañeda M 90 6.56 — — 4 51 40% 1 — —
L. Ulrich M 70 6.25 — — 1 26 20% 1 — —
L. Curda M 90 6.29 — — 1 43 33% 1 — —
S. Tigges F 62 6.45 — — 1 12 11% 1 — —
S. Marino F 79 6.15 — — 0 19 13% 0 — —
F. Götze D 28 7.30 — 1 0 18 18% 1 — —
M. Pieringer F 28 6.69 — — 2 5 2% 0 — —
R. Philippe F 20 7.58 1 — 2 8 4% 0 — —
S. Michel F 11 6.85 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
T. Baack M 45 6.89 — — 1 23 18% 0 — —
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Heuer Fernandes G 90 6.95 — — 0 40 23% 0 — —
W. Omari D 90 6.65 — — 0 54 42% 1 — —
S. Bornauw D 90 6.92 — — 1 21 21% 1 — —
S. Nandja D 90 5.53 — — 0 37 22% 2 1 —
D. Møller Wolfe M 90 6.33 — — 1 18 13% 1 — —
M. Muheim M 71 6.16 — — 0 25 18% 2 — —
B. Nadir M 71 6.58 — — 1 25 23% 6 — —
M. Adeline M 90 6.29 — — 0 39 28% 4 — —
Z. El Ouahdi M 90 5.80 — — 1 26 16% 3 — —
Fábio Vieira F 13 6.40 — — 1 5 3% 0 — —
Y. Poulsen F 45 6.70 — — 0 8 3% 1 — —
A. Grønbæk M 19 6.48 — — 1 5 4% 0 — —
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit F 1 5.86 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
A. Sambi Lokonga M 19 5.99 — — 0 13 10% 0 1 —
Otto Emerson Stange F 76 6.48 — — 1 5 5% 2 — —
T. Moffi F 45 6.12 — — 1 9 8% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
The final score was SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburger SV.
What did the model predict before SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
The model assigned 38% probability to a SC Paderborn 07 win, 31% to a draw, and 29% to an Hamburger SV win.