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Scotland - Slovenia

UEFA Nations League October 06, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Scotland
#1 · 0 pts
vs
Slovenia
#3 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
73.04%
Win
Scotland
13.4%
Draw
13.56%
Win
Slovenia
3.24
Expected xG
1.29
Most likely outcome
Scotland
73.04%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–1 (8.03%)
1X2 Result
1 73%
X 13%
2 14%
Double Chance
1X 86%
X2 27%
12 87%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Scotland a 73% win probability, against 13% for a draw and 13% for Slovenia. Expected goals are 3.2 for Scotland and 1.3 for Slovenia (total 4.5), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 8.03% probability.

Season Stats

Scotland
3W 1D 4L
Slovenia
3W 3D 2L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.0
1.4
Conceded
1.1
3.1
Shots OT
4.0
3.5
Corners
2.9
48%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
63%
63%
O 2.5
38%
50%
BTTS
38%
38%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Scotland
1W 1D 2L · at home
Slovenia
1W 2D 1L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.5
1.5
Conceded
1.0
25%
Win %
25%
50%
Win or Draw
75%
50%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
25%
25%
O 3.5
0%
25%
BTTS
25%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
50%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Scotland Slovenia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% —
1 3.5% 4.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
2 5.7% 7.3% 4.7% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
3 6.1% 7.9% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
4 5.0% 6.4% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1%
5 3.2% 4.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Scotland Scotland
L Greece 0–3
W Greece 0–1
W Poland 1–2
W Croatia 1–0
D Portugal 0–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Slovenia Slovenia
W Slovakia 1–0
D Slovakia 0–0
D Austria 1–1
L Norway 1–4
W Kazakhstan 0–1

Playing profile

Scotland Scotland
Attack
42
Defence
63
Form
53
Slovenia Slovenia
Attack
30
Defence
63
Form
24
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Scotland Scotland 0 0
2 Switzerland Switzerland 0 0
3 Slovenia Slovenia 0 0
4 FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Scotland Slovenia
Current #1 #3
→ Scotland #1 #3
→ Draw #1 #2
→ Slovenia #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Scotland vs Slovenia?
The model gives Scotland a 73% win probability, 13% for a draw, and 13% for an Slovenia win.
How many goals are expected in Scotland vs Slovenia?
Expected goals: Scotland 3.2, Slovenia 1.3 (total 4.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Scotland vs Slovenia?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.03%.