Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers — pre-match prediction — MLS — July 17, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 16 July 17, 2026 04:30

Seattle Sounders

#9 · 35 pts

1 – 5

Final score

Portland Timbers

#10 · 32 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Seattle Sounders, result Portland Timbers wins

H. Dotson (ast. A. Rusnak) 87'

19' (ast. J. Fory) K. Kelsy

56' (ast. B. Bye) K. Miller

60' (ast. D. Da Costa) C. Bassett

63' K. Kelsy

90'+8 (ast. D. Da Costa) A. Aravena

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Seattle Sounders a 66% win probability (draw 17%, Portland Timbers 15%). The final result was Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers. In 1 previous meetings, Seattle Sounders have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Portland Timbers.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.55

Actual xG

2.24

Saves

48%

Possession

52%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

19'

ast. J. Fory · K. Kelsy⚽

J. Ragen

41'

↕ J. Morris / D. Musovski

46'

P. Rothrock

49'

56'

ast. B. Bye · K. Miller⚽

60'

ast. D. Da Costa · C. Bassett⚽

63'

K. Kelsy⚽

↕ S. Brunell / O. De Rosario

64'

↕ K. Kossa-Rienzi / P. Kingston

64'

↕ J. Ferreira / P. Arriola

64'

73'

A. Aravena / A. Lassiter ↕

73'

J. Caicedo / C. Bassett ↕

↕ A. Lopez / S. Hawkins

84'

87'

F. Mora / K. Kelsy ↕

87'

J. Ortiz / D. Chara ↕

⚽H. Dotson · ast. A. Rusnak

87'

90'+1

I. Smith / Antony ↕

90'+8

ast. D. Da Costa · A. Aravena⚽

Pre-match prediction

66.75%

Seattle

17.43%

15.82%

Portland ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Portland Timbers) 15.82% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Seattle

2.74

0.55

-2.19

Portland

0.95

2.24

+1.29

Portland Timbers dominated by xG (2.24 vs 0.55). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	50
2	FC Dallas	27	47
3	San Jose Earthquakes	27	45
4	Houston Dynamo	27	44
5	St. Louis City	26	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	41
7	Colorado Rapids	27	36
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	36
9	Seattle Sounders	26	35
10	Portland Timbers	27	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	32
12	San Diego	27	32
13	Austin	27	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	26	21

Lineups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1

A. Thomas G 5.90

N. Tolo D 5.60

J. Ragen D 6.00

Antino Lopez 84' D 5.70

K. Kossa-Rienzi 64' D 5.70

H. Dotson 1 ⚽ M 7.60

S. Brunell 64' M 6.20

P. Rothrock M 6.30

A. Rusnák 1 👟 M 6.90

Jesús Ferreira 64' M 6.30

J. Morris 45' F 6.20

Bench

D. Musovski 55' F 6.20

O. De Rosario 36' F 6.90

P. Arriola 36' F 6.30

P. Kingston 36' M 6.70

S. Frei G

S. Gomez M

S. Hawkins 16' D 6.20

Y. Tsukanome F

Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1

J. Pantemis G 7.50

J. Fory 1 👟 D 7.20

K. Miller 1 ⚽ D 8.70

Finn Surman D 6.30

Brandon Bye 1 👟 D 7.30

D. Chará 87' M 6.60

Antony M 6.90

David Pereira da Costa 2 👟 M 7.50

C. Bassett 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.60

A. Lassiter 73' M 6.90

Kevin Kelsy 2 ⚽ 87' F 8.60

Bench

A. Aravena 1 ⚽ 27' F 7.90

A. Bonetig D

E. Miller D

F. Mora 13' F 6.30

Ian Smith 9' D 6.30

J. Caicedo 27' M 6.30

J. Ortiz 13' M 6.30

S. Jura D

Trey Muse G

Best on the pitch

K. Miller

D · Portland

8.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 59 pass

Kevin Kelsy

F · Portland

8.60

2 ⚽

3 shots · 27 pass

A. Aravena

F · Portland

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 15 pass

C. Bassett

M · Portland

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 31 pass

H. Dotson

M · Seattle

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 73 pass

J. Pantemis

G · Portland

7.50

· 29 pass

Seattle Sounders — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
A. Thomas	G	100	5.90	—	—	—	27	18%	—	—	—
N. Tolo	D	100	5.60	—	—	—	39	33%	2	—	—
J. Ragen	D	100	6.00	—	—	—	67	62%	2	1	—
Antino Lopez	D	84	5.70	—	—	—	35	32%	2	—	—
K. Kossa-Rienzi	D	64	5.70	—	—	1	29	25%	—	—	—
H. Dotson	M	100	7.60	1	—	1	73	66%	3	—	—
S. Brunell	M	64	6.20	—	—	1	27	26%	—	—	—
P. Rothrock	M	100	6.30	—	—	1	17	14%	2	1	—
A. Rusnák	M	100	6.90	—	1	1	43	36%	—	—	—
Jesús Ferreira	M	64	6.30	—	—	—	30	23%	—	—	—
J. Morris	F	45	6.20	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
D. Musovski	F	55	6.20	—	—	1	12	8%	—	—	—
O. De Rosario	F	36	6.90	—	—	1	8	7%	—	—	—
P. Arriola	F	36	6.30	—	—	—	13	9%	—	—	—
P. Kingston	M	36	6.70	—	—	1	19	17%	1	—	—
S. Hawkins	D	16	6.20	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—

Portland Timbers — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Pantemis	G	100	7.50	—	—	—	29	23%	—	—	—
J. Fory	D	100	7.20	—	1	—	67	56%	2	—	—
K. Miller	D	100	8.70	1	—	1	59	54%	—	—	—
Finn Surman	D	100	6.30	—	—	—	46	43%	1	—	—
Brandon Bye	D	100	7.30	—	1	1	44	34%	—	—	—
D. Chará	M	87	6.60	—	—	—	37	32%	3	—	—
Antony	M	91	6.90	—	—	5	42	38%	3	—	—
David Pereira da Costa	M	100	7.50	—	2	2	51	42%	—	—	—
C. Bassett	M	73	7.60	1	—	2	31	30%	1	—	—
A. Lassiter	M	73	6.90	—	—	1	18	14%	1	—	—
Kevin Kelsy	F	87	8.60	2	—	3	27	22%	—	—	—
A. Aravena	F	27	7.90	1	—	2	15	15%	—	—	—
F. Mora	F	13	6.30	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
Ian Smith	D	9	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
J. Caicedo	M	27	6.30	—	—	1	16	15%	—	—	—
J. Ortiz	M	13	6.30	—	—	—	13	12%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers?

The final score was Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers.

What did the model predict before Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers?

The model assigned 66% probability to a Seattle Sounders win, 17% to a draw, and 15% to an Portland Timbers win.