Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers — pre-match prediction — MLS — July 17, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 16 July 17, 2026 04:30

Seattle Sounders

#8 · 24 pts

1 – 5

Final score

Portland Timbers

#10 · 21 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Seattle Sounders, result Portland Timbers wins

H. Dotson (ast. A. Rusnak) 87'

19' (ast. J. Fory) K. Kelsy

56' (ast. B. Bye) K. Miller

60' (ast. D. Da Costa) C. Bassett

63' K. Kelsy

90'+8 (ast. D. Da Costa) A. Aravena

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Seattle Sounders a 66% win probability (draw 17%, Portland Timbers 15%). The final result was Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.55

Actual xG

2.24

Saves

48%

Possession

52%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

19'

ast. J. Fory · K. Kelsy⚽

J. Ragen

41'

↕ J. Morris / D. Musovski

46'

P. Rothrock

49'

56'

ast. B. Bye · K. Miller⚽

60'

ast. D. Da Costa · C. Bassett⚽

63'

K. Kelsy⚽

↕ S. Brunell / O. De Rosario

64'

↕ K. Kossa-Rienzi / P. Kingston

64'

↕ J. Ferreira / P. Arriola

64'

73'

A. Aravena / A. Lassiter ↕

73'

J. Caicedo / C. Bassett ↕

↕ A. Lopez / S. Hawkins

84'

87'

F. Mora / K. Kelsy ↕

87'

J. Ortiz / D. Chara ↕

⚽H. Dotson · ast. A. Rusnak

87'

90'+1

I. Smith / Antony ↕

90'+8

ast. D. Da Costa · A. Aravena⚽

Pre-match prediction

66.75%

Seattle

17.43%

15.82%

Portland ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Portland Timbers) 15.82% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Seattle

2.74

0.55

-2.19

Portland

0.95

2.24

+1.29

Portland Timbers dominated by xG (2.24 vs 0.55). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	16	33
2	Los Angeles FC	18	33
3	San Jose Earthquakes	17	33
4	Real Salt Lake	16	26
5	Houston Dynamo	16	26
6	FC Dallas	17	26
7	St. Louis City	17	25
8	Seattle Sounders	16	24
9	Minnesota United FC	17	23
10	Portland Timbers	17	21
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	18	21
12	San Diego	17	20
13	Colorado Rapids	17	19
14	Austin	17	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	17	14

Lineups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1

Andrew Thomas G 5.90

N. Tolo D 5.60

J. Ragen D 6.00

Antino Lopez 84' D 5.70

Kalani Kossa-Rienzi 64' D 5.70

Hassani Dotson 1 ⚽ M 7.60

Snyder Brunell 64' M 6.20

Paul Rothrock M 6.30

Albert Rusnák 1 👟 M 6.90

Jesús Ferreira 64' M 6.30

Jordan Morris 45' F 6.20

Bench

Daniel Musovski 55' F 6.20

Osaze De Rosario 36' F 6.90

Paul Arriola 36' F 6.30

Peter Kingston 36' M 6.70

Sebastian Gomez M

Stefan Frei G

Stuart Hawkins 16' D 6.20

Yu Tsukanome F

Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1

James Pantemis G 7.50

J. Fory 1 👟 D 7.20

K. Miller 1 ⚽ D 8.70

Finn Surman D 6.30

Brandon Bye 1 👟 D 7.30

Diego Chará 87' M 6.60

Antony Alves M 6.90

David Pereira da Costa 2 👟 M 7.50

Cole Bassett 1 ⚽ 73' M 7.60

Ariel Lassiter 73' M 6.90

K. Kelsy 2 ⚽ 87' F 8.60

Bench

Alexander Aravena 1 ⚽ 27' F 7.90

Alex Bonetig D

Eric Miller D

Felipe Mora 13' F 6.30

Ian Smith 9' D 6.30

Joao Ortíz 13' M 6.30

José Caicedo 27' M 6.30

Sawyer Jura D

Trey Muse G

Best on the pitch

K. Miller

D · Portland

8.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 59 pass

K. Kelsy

F · Portland

8.60

2 ⚽

3 shots · 27 pass

Alexander Aravena

F · Portland

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 15 pass

Cole Bassett

M · Portland

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 31 pass

Hassani Dotson

M · Seattle

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 73 pass

James Pantemis

G · Portland

7.50

· 29 pass

Seattle Sounders — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Andrew Thomas	G	100	5.90	—	—	—	27	18%	—	—	—
N. Tolo	D	100	5.60	—	—	—	39	33%	2	—	—
J. Ragen	D	100	6.00	—	—	—	67	62%	2	1	—
Antino Lopez	D	84	5.70	—	—	—	35	32%	2	—	—
Kalani Kossa-Rienzi	D	64	5.70	—	—	1	29	25%	—	—	—
Hassani Dotson	M	100	7.60	1	—	1	73	66%	3	—	—
Snyder Brunell	M	64	6.20	—	—	1	27	26%	—	—	—
Paul Rothrock	M	100	6.30	—	—	1	17	14%	2	1	—
Albert Rusnák	M	100	6.90	—	1	1	43	36%	—	—	—
Jesús Ferreira	M	64	6.30	—	—	—	30	23%	—	—	—
Jordan Morris	F	45	6.20	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Daniel Musovski	F	55	6.20	—	—	1	12	8%	—	—	—
Osaze De Rosario	F	36	6.90	—	—	1	8	7%	—	—	—
Paul Arriola	F	36	6.30	—	—	—	13	9%	—	—	—
Peter Kingston	M	36	6.70	—	—	1	19	17%	1	—	—
Stuart Hawkins	D	16	6.20	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—

Portland Timbers — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
James Pantemis	G	100	7.50	—	—	—	29	23%	—	—	—
J. Fory	D	100	7.20	—	1	—	67	56%	2	—	—
K. Miller	D	100	8.70	1	—	1	59	54%	—	—	—
Finn Surman	D	100	6.30	—	—	—	46	43%	1	—	—
Brandon Bye	D	100	7.30	—	1	1	44	34%	—	—	—
Diego Chará	M	87	6.60	—	—	—	37	32%	3	—	—
Antony Alves	M	91	6.90	—	—	5	42	38%	3	—	—
David Pereira da Costa	M	100	7.50	—	2	2	51	42%	—	—	—
Cole Bassett	M	73	7.60	1	—	2	31	30%	1	—	—
Ariel Lassiter	M	73	6.90	—	—	1	18	14%	1	—	—
K. Kelsy	F	87	8.60	2	—	3	27	22%	—	—	—
Alexander Aravena	F	27	7.90	1	—	2	15	15%	—	—	—
Felipe Mora	F	13	6.30	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
Ian Smith	D	9	6.30	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
Joao Ortíz	M	13	6.30	—	—	—	13	12%	—	—	—
José Caicedo	M	27	6.30	—	—	1	16	15%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers?

The final score was Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers.

What did the model predict before Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers?

The model assigned 66% probability to a Seattle Sounders win, 17% to a draw, and 15% to an Portland Timbers win.