← Liga 1

Semen Padang - Persebaya Surabaya

Liga 1 May 15, 2026 10:30
Semen Padang
#17 · 20 pts
vs
Persebaya Surabaya
#6 · 52 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 28.6°C 💨 1 km/h 🌧️ 27% · Padang
⚡ Pre-match analysis
12.87%
Win
Semen Padang
25.89%
Draw
61.23%
Win
Persebaya Surabaya
0.3
Expected xG
1.38
Model prediction
Persebaya Surabaya
61.23%
Probability
78.3%
1X2 accuracy · 23 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Persebaya Surabaya a 61% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 12% for Semen Padang. Expected goals are 0.3 for Semen Padang and 1.4 for Persebaya Surabaya (total 1.7), with a 70% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 25.7% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Semen Padang have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Persebaya Surabaya.

Score Matrix
↕ Semen Padang Persebaya Surabaya →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 18.7% 25.7% 17.7% 8.1% 2.8% 0.8%
1 5.6% 7.7% 5.3% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2%
2 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —
4 — — — — — —
5 — — — — — —
Recent form
Semen Padang Semen Padang
L Persik Kediri 0–3
L Dewa United 1–0
L Persepam Madura Utd 0–1
L Pusamania Borneo 3–0
L Persijap 0–2
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 28%
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya
D Persis Solo 0–0
W PSBS Biak Numfor 4–0
W Arema FC 0–4
W Malut United 0–2
L Persepam Madura Utd 1–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 40%
Playing profile
Semen Padang Semen Padang
Attack
8
Defence
55
Form
23
Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya
Attack
42
Defence
75
Form
56
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
Semen Padang
0
Draw
1
Persebaya Surabaya
L 19 Sep 2025 Liga 1 0–1
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Pusamania Borneo Pusamania Borneo 32 75
2 Persib Bandung Persib Bandung 32 75
3 Persija Persija 32 65
4 Dewa United Dewa United 32 53
5 Malut United Malut United 32 52
6 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 32 52
7 Bhayangkara FC Bhayangkara FC 32 50
8 Bali United Bali United 32 45
9 Persita Persita 32 44
10 Arema FC Arema FC 32 42
11 PSIM Yogyakarta PSIM Yogyakarta 32 42
12 Persik Kediri Persik Kediri 32 39
13 PSM Makassar PSM Makassar 32 34
14 Persijap Persijap 32 34
15 Persepam Madura Utd Persepam Madura Utd 32 32
16 Persis Solo Persis Solo 32 28
17 Semen Padang Semen Padang 32 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor PSBS Biak Numfor 32 18
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
The model gives Semen Padang a 12% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 61% for an Persebaya Surabaya win.
How many goals are expected in Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Expected goals: Semen Padang 0.3, Persebaya Surabaya 1.4 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 70%.
What is the most likely score in Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 25.7%.