Senegal - Mozambique
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 25, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
73.31%
Win
Senegal
15.08%
Draw
11.62%
Win
Mozambique
3.54
0.72
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Senegal
73.31%
Probability
Market probabilities
Most likely result
3–0
(10.11%)
1X2 Result
1
73%
X
15%
2
12%
Double Chance
1X
88%
X2
27%
12
85%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Senegal a 73% win probability, against 15% for a draw and 11% for Mozambique. Expected goals are 3.5 for Senegal and 0.7 for Mozambique (total 4.3), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–0 at 10.11% probability.
Season Stats
6W
1D
3L
1W
0D
3L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
1.0
1.1
Conceded
2.2
5.8
Shots OT
—
5.5
Corners
—
55%
Poss.
—
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
75%
70%
O 2.5
75%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
54%
O 3.5
37%
BTTS
4W
1D
0L
· at home
1W
0D
2L
· away
2.6
gls/g
1.0
0.4
Conceded
2.3
80%
Win %
33%
100%
Win or Draw
33%
80%
O 1.5
67%
60%
O 2.5
67%
40%
O 3.5
67%
40%
BTTS
33%
60%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
67%
last 5
ℹ
Home/away records across all competitions (friendlies excluded) — no in-tournament history yet.
Score Matrix
↕ Senegal
Mozambique →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 1 | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 8.9% | 6.4% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 10.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 9.3% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Senegal
Attack
49
Defence
62
Form
46
Mozambique
Attack
18
Defence
40
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Senegal vs Mozambique?
The model gives Senegal a 73% win probability, 15% for a draw, and 11% for an Mozambique win.
How many goals are expected in Senegal vs Mozambique?
Expected goals: Senegal 3.5, Mozambique 0.7 (total 4.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Senegal vs Mozambique?
3–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.11%.