Senegal - Sudan
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.31%
Win
Senegal
28.11%
Draw
17.59%
Win
Sudan
1.4
0.44
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(18.74%)
1X2 Result
1
54%
X
28%
2
18%
Double Chance
1X
82%
X2
46%
12
72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
80%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
57%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Senegal a 54% win probability, against 28% for a draw and 17% for Sudan. Expected goals are 1.4 for Senegal and 0.4 for Sudan (total 1.8), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.74% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Senegal have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sudan.
Season Stats
1W
1D
0L
1W
0D
1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.0
0.5
Conceded
2.0
4.0
Shots OT
3.0
6.0
Corners
5.5
64%
Poss.
35%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Senegal
Sudan →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 1 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2 | 15.6% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 3 | 7.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 4 | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Playing profile
Senegal
Attack
38
Defence
77
Form
55
Sudan
Attack
24
Defence
50
Form
29
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
3 Jan 2026
3–1
Group J
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Senegal
|
2 | 4 |
| 2 |
Mozambique
|
2 | 4 |
| 3 |
Sudan
|
2 | 3 |
| 4 |
Ethiopia
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group J
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #3 |
| → Senegal | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #3 |
| → Sudan | #3 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Senegal vs Sudan?
The model gives Senegal a 54% win probability, 28% for a draw, and 17% for an Sudan win.
How many goals are expected in Senegal vs Sudan?
Expected goals: Senegal 1.4, Sudan 0.4 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Senegal vs Sudan?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.74%.