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← UEFA Nations League

Serbia - Greece

UEFA Nations League September 24, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Serbia
#2 · 4 pts
vs
Greece
#3 · 3 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌤️ Mainly clear 26.2°C 💨 17 km/h 🌧️ 74% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
44.54%
Win
Serbia
23.82%
Draw
31.64%
Win
Greece
1.67
Expected xG
1.37

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.93%)
1X2 Result
1 45%
X 24%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 56%
12 76%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 80%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Serbia a 44% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Greece. Expected goals are 1.7 for Serbia and 1.4 for Greece (total 3.0), with a 89% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.93% probability.

Season Stats

Serbia
2W 4D 2L
Greece
6W 0D 2L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
1.8
0.9
Conceded
0.6
2.6
Shots OT
4.4
3.0
Corners
4.6
36%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
88%
13%
O 2.5
50%
25%
BTTS
13%
50%
Clean Sht
63%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
13%
BTTS
Serbia
2W 2D 0L · at home
Greece
4W 0D 0L · away
1.0
gls/g
2.2
0.0
Conceded
0.2
50%
Win %
100%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
50%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
25%
100%
Clean Sht
75%
50%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Serbia Greece →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8% 6.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
1 8.0% 10.9% 7.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.3%
2 6.7% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.3%
3 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
4 1.5% 2.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Serbia Serbia
W Austria 2–0
D Austria 1–1
D Denmark 0–0
D Switzerland 1–1
L Spain 3–0
Greece Greece
W Scotland 0–3
L Scotland 0–1
W Finland 0–2
L England 0–3
W Rep. Of Ireland 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Serbia Serbia
Attack
27
Defence
41
Form
14
Greece Greece
Attack
22
Defence
66
Form
11
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Play-offs A/B

# Team G Pts
1 Türkiye Türkiye 2 6
2 Serbia Serbia 2 4
3 Greece Greece 2 3
4 Belgium Belgium 2 3
5 Ukraine Ukraine 2 3
6 Scotland Scotland 2 3
7 Austria Austria 2 1
8 Hungary Hungary 2 0

What's at stake · Play-offs A/B

Top 2 advance to the next round

Serbia Greece
Current #2 #3
→ Serbia #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #3
→ Greece #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Serbia vs Greece?
The model gives Serbia a 44% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 31% for an Greece win.
How many goals are expected in Serbia vs Greece?
Expected goals: Serbia 1.7, Greece 1.4 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 89%.
What is the most likely score in Serbia vs Greece?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.93%.