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Shabana - Mara Sugar

Premier League November 22, 2026 12:00
Shabana
#5 · 9 pts
vs
Mara Sugar
#6 · 9 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.61%
Win
Shabana
32.97%
Draw
34.42%
Win
Mara Sugar
0.75
Expected xG
1.08

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.99%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 33%
2 34%
Double Chance
1X 66%
X2 67%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 50%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Mara Sugar a 34% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Shabana. Expected goals are 0.8 for Shabana and 1.1 for Mara Sugar (total 1.8), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.99% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Shabana have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Mara Sugar.

Season Stats

Shabana
5W 6D 4L
Mara Sugar
6W 5D 4L
Averages per game
0.7
Goals
0.9
0.7
Conceded
0.9
Percentages
33%
O 1.5
47%
20%
O 2.5
40%
27%
BTTS
47%
53%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
40%
BTTS
Shabana
3W 4D 3L · at home
Mara Sugar
2W 4D 4L · away
0.6
gls/g
0.8
0.6
Conceded
1.1
30%
Win %
20%
70%
Win or Draw
60%
30%
O 1.5
50%
20%
O 2.5
40%
0%
O 3.5
20%
30%
BTTS
50%
60%
Clean Sht
40%
40%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Shabana Mara Sugar →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.0% 17.3% 9.3% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2%
1 12.1% 13.0% 7.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
2 4.5% 4.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
3 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% —
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Shabana Shabana
W Mombasa Elite 2–3
L Kenya Police 0–1
D Migori Youth 1–1
D AFC Leopards 0–0
D Nairobi United 0–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 29%
Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
W Migori Youth 2–1
L Tusker 3–1
D AFC Leopards 0–0
D Ulinzi Stars 0–0
W Mombasa Elite 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 29%

Playing profile

Shabana Shabana
Attack
10
Defence
70
Form
39
Mara Sugar Mara Sugar
Attack
17
Defence
61
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Shabana
1
Draw
1
Mara Sugar
13 May 2026 Premier League 0–1
17 Dec 2025 Premier League 0–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 GOR Mahia GOR Mahia 6 13
2 KCB KCB 6 13
3 AFC Leopards AFC Leopards 6 10
4 Kenya Police Kenya Police 6 9
5 Shabana Shabana 6 9
6 Mara Sugar Mara Sugar 6 9
7 3K 3K 6 9
8 Murang'a SEAL Murang'a SEAL 6 8
9 Bandari Bandari 6 7
9 Police Police 1 1
10 Posta Rangers FC Posta Rangers FC 6 7
11 Tusker Tusker 4 6
12 Migori Youth Migori Youth 5 6
13 APS Bomet APS Bomet 6 6
14 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 6 6
15 Nairobi United Nairobi United 6 5
16 Mathare United Mathare United 6 5
17 Homeboyz Homeboyz 5 5
18 Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 6 1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Shabana vs Mara Sugar?
The model gives Shabana a 32% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 34% for an Mara Sugar win.
How many goals are expected in Shabana vs Mara Sugar?
Expected goals: Shabana 0.8, Mara Sugar 1.1 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Shabana vs Mara Sugar?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.99%.