Conference League · Round of 16 March 19, 2026 21:00

Shakhtar Donetsk

#6 · 13 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Lech Poznan

#11 · 10 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Shakhtar Donetsk a 43% win probability (draw 28%, Lech Poznan 28%). The final result was Shakhtar Donetsk 1–2 Lech Poznan. In 1 previous meetings, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Lech Poznan.

Match statistics

1

Shots on target

7

0.43

Actual xG

2.14

55%

Possession

45%

4

Corners

5

Pre-match prediction

43.01%

Shakhtar

28.46%

X

28.53%

Lech ←

we assigned to the actual result (Lech Poznan) 28.53% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Shakhtar

2.39

0.43

-1.96

Lech

1.24

2.14

+0.9

Lech Poznan dominated by xG (2.14 vs 0.43). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Strasbourg	6	16
2	Raków Częstochowa	6	14
3	AEK Athens FC	6	13
4	Sparta Praha	6	13
5	Rayo Vallecano	6	13
6	Shakhtar Donetsk	6	13
7	FSV Mainz 05	6	13
8	AEK Larnaca	6	12
9	Lausanne	6	11
10	Crystal Palace	6	10
11	Lech Poznan	6	10
12	Samsunspor	6	10
13	Celje	6	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	10
15	Fiorentina	6	9
16	HNK Rijeka	6	9
17	Jagiellonia	6	9
18	Omonia Nicosia	6	8
19	FC Noah	6	8
20	Drita	6	8
21	KuPS	6	7
22	Shkendija	6	7
23	Zrinjski	6	7
24	Sigma Olomouc	6	7
25	Universitatea Craiova	6	7
26	Lincoln Red Imps FC	6	7
27	Dynamo Kyiv	6	6
28	Legia Warszawa	6	6
29	Slovan Bratislava	6	6
30	Breidablik	6	5
31	Shamrock Rovers	6	4
32	BK Hacken	6	3
33	Hamrun Spartans	6	3
34	Shelbourne	6	2
35	Aberdeen	6	2
36	Rapid Vienna	6	1