✗Model wrong — prediction Shamrock Rovers, result Draw
A. Greene
(ast. J. McGovern)
83'
25'
(ast. J. McClean)
L. Boyce
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Shamrock Rovers a 61% win probability (draw 21%, Derry City 17%). The final result was Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Derry City. In 3 previous meetings, Shamrock Rovers have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
4
1.45
Actual xG
1.31
70%
Possession
30%
6
Corners
2
Match Events
4'
J. McClean
24'
D. Markey
/
K. Santos
25'
ast. J. McClean ·
L. Boyce⚽
45'+4
B. Fleming
50'
C. Dummigan
56'
C. Winchester
/
D. Markey
56'
J. Olayinka
/
C. Dummigan
G. Burke
56'
61'
L. Boyce
D. Watts
/ J. McGovern
70'
G. Burke
/ N. Razi
70'
C. O'Sullivan
/ J. O'Sullivan
70'
M. Noonan
/ A. Greene
70'
72'
T. Doherty
/
L. Boyce
72'
L. Kelly
/
J. McClean
J. Mulraney
/ M. Kovalevskis
76'
77'
C. Winchester
⚽A. Greene
· ast. J. McGovern
83'
A. Brennan
89'
Pre-match prediction
61.16%
Shamrock
21.63%
X ←
17.21%
Derry
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
21.63%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.85
1.45
-0.4
0.80
1.31
+0.51
xG dominance was balanced (1.45 – 1.31).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
E. McGinty
G
E. McGinty
G
22
T. Sobowale
D
T. Sobowale
D
3
E. Stevens
D
E. Stevens
D
5
L. Grace
D
L. Grace
D
29
J. Byrne
M
11
J. Mulraney
M
J. Mulraney
M
7
D. Watts
M
D. Watts
M
8
M. Healy
M
M. Healy
M
19
Adam Brennan
M
Adam Brennan
M
9
A. Greene
1 ⚽
F
A. Greene
1 ⚽
F
10
G. Burke
F
G. Burke
F
13
E. Beach
G
E. Beach
G
19
B. Fleming
M
B. Fleming
M
3
Patrick McClean
D
Patrick McClean
D
22
C. Barr
D
C. Barr
D
28
J. Olayinka
M
J. Olayinka
M
23
C. Dummigan
D
C. Dummigan
D
8
A. O'Reilly
M
A. O'Reilly
M
7
M. Duffy
M
M. Duffy
M
10
D. Markey
M
D. Markey
M
21
Kévin Santos
M
Kévin Santos
M
15
J. Clarke
M
J. Clarke
M
Shamrock Rovers — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. McGinty | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Sobowale | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Stevens | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Grace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Byrne | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mulraney | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Watts | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Healy | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Brennan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Greene | F | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Burke | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Derry City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Beach | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Fleming | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Patrick McClean | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Barr | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Olayinka | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Dummigan | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. O'Reilly | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Duffy | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Markey | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kévin Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Clarke | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
The final score was Shamrock Rovers 1–1 Derry City.
What did the model predict before Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Shamrock Rovers win, 21% to a draw, and 17% to an Derry City win.