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Model wrong — prediction West Brom, result Sheffield Wednesday wins
N. Chalobah 36'
L. Palmer 40'
82' K. Grant
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave West Brom a 67% win probability (draw 19%, Sheffield Wednesday 13%). The final result was Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 West Brom. In 2 previous meetings, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for West Brom.

Match statistics
8
Total shots
8
5
Shots on target
5
1.50
Actual xG
1.60
3
Saves
3
38%
Possession
62%
5
Corners
2
20
Tackles
17
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
O. Diakite
N. Chalobah
32'
N. Chalobah
36'
L. Palmer
40'
46'
T. Bany / J. Maja
46'
K. Grant / O. Bostock
46'
D. Dike / A. Heggebo
W. Grainger / C. McNeill
55'
G. Otegbayo / D. Iorfa
55'
M. Lowe
57'
J. Lowe / O. Kobacki
81'
J. Heskey
81'
82'
K. Grant
88'
J. Wallace / I. Price
89'
S. Mandey / O. Diakite
L. Palmer / M. Maltby
90'+6
90'
T. Bany
Pre-match prediction
13.47%
Sheffield ←
19.02%
X
67.51%
West
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Sheffield Wednesday) 13.47% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Sheffield
0.46
1.50
+1.04
West
1.94
1.60
-0.34
xG dominance was balanced (1.50 – 1.60). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 West Ham West Ham 7 14
2 West Brom West Brom 7 14
3 QPR QPR 7 12
4 Swansea Swansea 6 11
5 Charlton Charlton 6 11
6 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 5 10
7 Bristol City Bristol City 5 10
8 Birmingham Birmingham 7 10
9 Millwall Millwall 5 9
10 Norwich Norwich 6 9
11 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 6 9
12 Wolves Wolves 5 8
13 Watford Watford 6 8
14 Southampton Southampton 6 7
15 Stoke City Stoke City 6 7
16 Wrexham Wrexham 7 7
17 Bolton Bolton 7 7
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 5 6
19 Blackburn Blackburn 6 5
20 Lincoln Lincoln 5 5
21 Cardiff Cardiff 7 4
22 Derby Derby 7 4
23 Burnley Burnley 6 3
24 Preston Preston 6 3
Lineups
1 P. Charles P. Charles G 7.60
3 Max Lowe Max Lowe D 6.30
22 G. Otegbayo G. Otegbayo 55' D 7.30
2 L. Palmer L. Palmer 1 ⚽ 89' D 8.00
45 Tayo Adaramola Tayo Adaramola M 7.00
14 N. Chalobah N. Chalobah 1 ⚽ M 7.60
24 Jaden Heskey Jaden Heskey M 6.90
4 Sean Fusire Sean Fusire M 6.60
9 J. Lowe J. Lowe 81' F 7.50
31 W. Grainger W. Grainger 55' F 6.50
12 J. Yates J. Yates F 6.30
Bench
17 Charlie McNeill Charlie McNeill 35' F 6.90
37 Jarvis Thornton Jarvis Thornton M
18 M. Nakamba M. Nakamba M
19 O. Kobacki O. Kobacki 9' F 6.90
West Brom West Brom 4-4-2
1
G 6.70
4 C. Styles C. Styles D 6.20
6 G. Campbell G. Campbell D 6.70
14
D 6.90
30 Daniel Edward Peter Imray Daniel Edward Peter Imray D 6.30
21 I. Price I. Price 88' M 6.90
27 A. Mowatt A. Mowatt M 7.30
17 O. Diakité O. Diakité 89' M 6.70
37 Oliver Bostock Oliver Bostock 45' M 6.30
19 A. Heggebø A. Heggebø 45' F 7.00
9 J. Maja J. Maja 45' F 6.70
Bench
12 D. Dike D. Dike 45' F 6.70
10 K. Ahearne-Grant K. Ahearne-Grant 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.70
26 T. Bany T. Bany 45' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
L. Palmer
L. Palmer
D · Sheffield
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 42 pass
K. Ahearne-Grant
K. Ahearne-Grant
F · West
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 23 pass
P. Charles
P. Charles
G · Sheffield
7.60
· 42 pass
N. Chalobah
N. Chalobah
M · Sheffield
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 45 pass
J. Lowe
J. Lowe
F · Sheffield
7.50
2 shots · 15 pass
G. Otegbayo
G. Otegbayo
D · Sheffield
7.30
· 27 pass
Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
P. Charles G 90 7.60 42 25%
Max Lowe D 90 6.30 1 42 30% 3 1
G. Otegbayo D 55 7.30 27 24%
L. Palmer D 89 8.00 1 1 42 30% 1
Tayo Adaramola M 90 7.00 1 30 26% 1
N. Chalobah M 90 7.60 1 1 45 37% 3 1
Jaden Heskey M 90 6.90 30 24% 5 1
Sean Fusire M 90 6.60 22 17% 2
J. Lowe F 81 7.50 2 15 12% 1
W. Grainger F 55 6.50 12 9%
J. Yates F 90 6.30 1 16 12%
Charlie McNeill F 35 6.90 6 6% 2
O. Kobacki F 9 6.90 1 1 1% 2
West Brom West Brom — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.70 25 19%
C. Styles D 90 6.20 1 61 54% 3
G. Campbell D 90 6.70 96 84%
D 90 6.90 70 64%
Daniel Edward Peter Imray D 90 6.30 1 43 40%
I. Price M 88 6.90 1 45 32% 4
A. Mowatt M 90 7.30 82 77% 3
O. Diakité M 89 6.70 2 68 59% 2 1
Oliver Bostock M 45 6.30 9 7% 1
A. Heggebø F 45 7.00 1 5 5%
J. Maja F 45 6.70 1 9 9%
D. Dike F 45 6.70 4 2%
K. Ahearne-Grant F 45 7.70 1 1 23 20% 1
T. Bany F 45 6.50 13 10% 3 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sheffield Wednesday vs West Brom?
The final score was Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 West Brom.
What did the model predict before Sheffield Wednesday vs West Brom?
The model assigned 13% probability to a Sheffield Wednesday win, 19% to a draw, and 67% to an West Brom win.