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Shelbourne - Derry City

Premier Division September 11, 2026 20:45 Tolka Park, Dublin
Shelbourne
#5 · 36 pts
vs
Derry City
#6 · 34 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 18.1°C 💨 10 km/h · Dublin
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.57%
Win
Shelbourne
31.04%
Draw
33.38%
Win
Derry City
1.32
Expected xG
1.38

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (14.96%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 31%
2 33%
Double Chance
1X 67%
X2 64%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 85.4% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 51%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Shelbourne a 35% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Derry City. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shelbourne and 1.4 for Derry City (total 2.7), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 14.96% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Shelbourne have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Derry City.

Season Stats

Shelbourne
4W 8D 3L
Derry City
3W 7D 5L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
1.5
1.1
Conceded
1.5
3.6
Shots OT
4.6
4.4
Corners
5.6
51%
Poss.
56%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
80%
53%
O 2.5
47%
60%
BTTS
67%
27%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Premier Division. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
85%
BTTS
Shelbourne
3W 2D 5L · at home
Derry City
1W 5D 4L · away
1.4
gls/g
1.4
1.8
Conceded
1.8
30%
Win %
10%
50%
Win or Draw
60%
90%
O 1.5
90%
80%
O 2.5
60%
20%
O 3.5
30%
80%
BTTS
90%
10%
Clean Sht
0%
20%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Shelbourne Derry City →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.8% 9.3% 6.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
1 8.9% 12.3% 8.5% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 5.8% 8.1% 5.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
3 2.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Shelbourne Shelbourne
D Shamrock Rovers 0–0
D Galway United 1–1
L St Patrick's Athl. 1–2
L Waterford 1–0
W Dundalk 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 11%
Derry City Derry City
D Shamrock Rovers 3–3
L Bohemians 5–3
W Sligo Rovers 2–0
D St Patrick's Athl. 1–1
L Waterford 2–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 12%

Playing profile

Shelbourne Shelbourne
Attack
30
Defence
61
Form
40
Derry City Derry City
Attack
43
Defence
57
Form
44
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Shelbourne
1
Draw
1
Derry City
25 May 2026 Premier Division 0–0
17 Apr 2026 Premier Division 1–2
13 Mar 2026 Premier Division 2–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 29 56
2 St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 29 50
3 Bohemians Bohemians 29 50
4 Dundalk Dundalk 29 40
5 Shelbourne Shelbourne 28 36
6 Derry City Derry City 29 34
7 Galway United Galway United 28 34
8 Waterford Waterford 29 32
9 Drogheda United Drogheda United 29 28
10 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 29 23
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
The model gives Shelbourne a 35% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 33% for an Derry City win.
How many goals are expected in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Expected goals: Shelbourne 1.3, Derry City 1.4 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.96%.