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Shinnik Yaroslavl - Arsenal Tula

First League August 08, 2026 16:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
#12 · 5 pts
vs
Arsenal Tula
#11 · 6 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.54%
Win
Shinnik Yaroslavl
29.59%
Draw
27.88%
Win
Arsenal Tula
1.93
Expected xG
0.56

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.83%)
1X2 Result
1 43%
X 30%
2 28%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 58%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 49%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 42% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Arsenal Tula. Expected goals are 1.9 for Shinnik Yaroslavl and 0.6 for Arsenal Tula (total 2.5), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.83% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Shinnik Yaroslavl have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Arsenal Tula.

Season Stats

Shinnik Yaroslavl
5W 9D 1L
Arsenal Tula
4W 4D 7L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.0
0.9
Conceded
1.6
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
73%
33%
O 2.5
47%
47%
BTTS
53%
47%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in First League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5W 5D 0L · at home
Arsenal Tula
3W 3D 4L · away
1.6
gls/g
1.0
0.5
Conceded
1.6
50%
Win %
30%
100%
Win or Draw
60%
70%
O 1.5
90%
30%
O 2.5
40%
20%
O 3.5
20%
40%
BTTS
60%
60%
Clean Sht
0%
20%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Shinnik Yaroslavl Arsenal Tula →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3% 4.6% 1.3% 0.2% — —
1 16.1% 8.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% —
2 15.5% 8.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 10.0% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% — —
4 4.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% — —
5 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl
L Nizhny Novgorod 3–0
D Torpedo Moskva 1–1
W Leningradets 2–0
D FC Sochi 2–2
D Chelyabinsk 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 42%
Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula
W Torpedo Moskva 1–0
L FC Sochi 5–0
L FK Neftekhimik 0–1
W Tekstilshchik 2–1
L Rodina Moskva 1–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 12%

Playing profile

Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl
Attack
26
Defence
57
Form
40
Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula
Attack
16
Defence
46
Form
28
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1
Draw
0
Arsenal Tula
18 Apr 2026 First League 2–0
25 Jul 2025 First League 1–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod 4 12
2 Veles Veles 4 9
3 FC UFA FC UFA 4 8
4 Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma 4 8
5 Ural Ural 4 7
6 Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva 4 7
7 Enisey Enisey 4 7
8 Chelyabinsk Chelyabinsk 4 6
9 Rotor Volgograd Rotor Volgograd 4 6
10 FK Neftekhimik FK Neftekhimik 4 6
11 Arsenal Tula Arsenal Tula 4 6
12 Shinnik Yaroslavl Shinnik Yaroslavl 4 5
13 FC Sochi FC Sochi 4 4
14 Leningradets Leningradets 4 4
15 Volga Ulyanovsk Volga Ulyanovsk 4 3
16 Tekstilshchik Tekstilshchik 4 2
17 KAMAZ KAMAZ 4 1
18 Ska-khabarovsk Ska-khabarovsk 4 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
The model gives Shinnik Yaroslavl a 42% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 27% for an Arsenal Tula win.
How many goals are expected in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Expected goals: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.9, Arsenal Tula 0.6 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.83%.