✗Model wrong — prediction Derry City, result Draw
Gareth McElroy
25'
Ryan O'Kane
37'
77'
(ast. Gavin Whyte)
Terence Doherty
82'
(ast. Conor Barry)
Terence Doherty
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Derry City a 68% win probability (draw 19%, Sligo Rovers 12%). The final result was Sligo Rovers 2–2 Derry City. In 4 previous meetings, Sligo Rovers have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Derry City.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
16
5
Shots on target
5
1.36
Actual xG
0.94
3
Saves
3
32%
Possession
68%
3
Corners
5
27
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
⚽Gareth McElroy
25'
⚽Ryan O'Kane
37'
41'
Jamie Stott
/
Ciaran Grogan
sean stewart
/ O.Denham
45'
45'
Tom Norcott
/
Brian Maher
Kaiyne Woolery
48'
49'
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
51'
Liam Kelly
/
James Olayinka
Jack Shorrock
/ Cian Kavanagh
56'
Ryan O'Kane
/ James McManus
67'
70'
Tyler·Smith
71'
Liam Boyce
/
Tyler·Smith
71'
Yoann Prigent
/
Darragh Markey
Cian Kavanagh
76'
77'
ast. Gavin Whyte ·
Terence Doherty⚽
Daire Patton
/ Ruben Gillespie
80'
82'
ast. Conor Barry ·
Terence Doherty⚽
89'
Yoann Prigent
Pre-match prediction
12.25%
Sligo
19.56%
X ←
68.19%
Derry
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
19.56%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.53
1.36
+0.83
2.12
0.94
-1.18
Sligo Rovers dominated by xG (1.36 vs 0.94).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Liam John Hughes
G
Liam John Hughes
G
23
K. McDonagh
D
K. McDonagh
D
3
Sean Stewart
45'
D
Sean Stewart
45'
D
52
G. McElroy
1 ⚽
D
G. McElroy
1 ⚽
D
4
S. Quirk
D
S. Quirk
D
6
L. Young
M
L. Young
M
71
D. Patton
80'
M
D. Patton
80'
M
7
J. Shorrock
56'
M
J. Shorrock
56'
M
10
A. Meekison
M
A. Meekison
M
28
R. O'Kane
1 ⚽
67'
M
R. O'Kane
1 ⚽
67'
M
41
K. Woolery
48'
F
K. Woolery
48'
F
Bench
51
Aidan Gabbidon
D
Aidan Gabbidon
D
11
C. Kavanagh
34'
F
C. Kavanagh
34'
F
14
J. McManus
23'
M
J. McManus
23'
M
24
J. O'Donnell
F
J. O'Donnell
F
15
O. Denham
45'
D
O. Denham
45'
D
49
O. Kelly
M
O. Kelly
M
1
B. Maher
45'
G
B. Maher
45'
G
24
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
22
C. Barr
1 👟
D
C. Barr
1 👟
D
25
Christy Grogan
41'
D
Christy Grogan
41'
D
21
Kévin Santos
M
Kévin Santos
M
11
G. Whyte
1 👟
M
G. Whyte
1 👟
M
28
J. Olayinka
51'
M
J. Olayinka
51'
M
10
D. Markey
71'
M
D. Markey
71'
M
31
C. Downey
M
C. Downey
M
32
T. Doherty
2 ⚽
F
T. Doherty
2 ⚽
F
29
T. Smith
71'
F
T. Smith
71'
F
Bench
34
C. O'Donnell
M
C. O'Donnell
M
4
J. Stott
49'
D
J. Stott
49'
D
27
L. Boyce
19'
F
L. Boyce
19'
F
35
L. Kelly
39'
M
L. Kelly
39'
M
17
N. Twisk
M
N. Twisk
M
3
Patrick McClean
D
Patrick McClean
D
13
Tom Norcott
45'
G
Tom Norcott
45'
G
38
Yoann Prigent
19'
F
Yoann Prigent
19'
F
Best on the pitch
T. Doherty
F · Derry
8.83
2 ⚽
3 shots
· 15 pass
R. O'Kane
M · Sligo
7.34
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 10 pass
L. Boyce
F · Derry
6.78
2 shots
· 8 pass
S. Quirk
D · Sligo
6.74
· 18 pass
G. Whyte
M · Derry
6.69
1 👟
3 shots
· 49 pass
J. Stott
D · Derry
6.65
1 shots
· 43 pass
Sligo Rovers — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam John Hughes | G | 90 | 6.14 | — | — | 0 | 30 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| K. McDonagh | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Sean Stewart | D | 45 | 6.26 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| G. McElroy | D | 90 | 6.63 | 1 | — | 2 | 29 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Quirk | D | 90 | 6.74 | — | — | 0 | 18 | 14% | 7 | — | — |
| L. Young | M | 90 | 6.31 | — | — | 0 | 29 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Patton | M | 80 | 6.44 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Shorrock | M | 56 | 5.86 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Meekison | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 0 | 25 | 22% | 4 | — | — |
| R. O'Kane | M | 67 | 7.34 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Woolery | F | 48 | 5.82 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 0% | 1 | — | 1 |
| C. Kavanagh | F | 34 | 6.24 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. McManus | M | 23 | 6.12 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Denham | D | 45 | 6.04 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
Derry City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Maher | G | 45 | 6.16 | — | — | 0 | 21 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Brooklyn Lyons-Foster | D | 90 | 5.97 | — | — | 1 | 85 | 74% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Barr | D | 90 | 6.12 | — | 1 | 2 | 82 | 65% | 2 | — | — |
| Christy Grogan | D | 41 | 6.56 | — | — | 0 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Kévin Santos | M | 90 | 6.53 | — | — | 3 | 34 | 30% | 0 | — | — |
| G. Whyte | M | 90 | 6.69 | — | 1 | 3 | 49 | 38% | 0 | — | — |
| J. Olayinka | M | 51 | 6.53 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 30% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Markey | M | 71 | 6.61 | — | — | 0 | 55 | 48% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Downey | M | 90 | 6.35 | — | — | 0 | 47 | 41% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Doherty | F | 90 | 8.83 | 2 | — | 3 | 15 | 12% | 0 | — | — |
| T. Smith | F | 71 | 6.21 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 10% | 0 | 1 | — |
| J. Stott | D | 49 | 6.65 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Boyce | F | 19 | 6.78 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| L. Kelly | M | 39 | 6.55 | — | — | 0 | 44 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Tom Norcott | G | 45 | 5.80 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
| Yoann Prigent | F | 19 | 6.31 | — | — | 0 | 5 | 5% | 0 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
The final score was Sligo Rovers 2–2 Derry City.
What did the model predict before Sligo Rovers vs Derry City?
The model assigned 12% probability to a Sligo Rovers win, 19% to a draw, and 68% to an Derry City win.