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Slovenia - FYR Macedonia

UEFA Nations League September 29, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Slovenia
#3 · 0 pts
vs
FYR Macedonia
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
80.54%
Win
Slovenia
12.02%
Draw
7.44%
Win
FYR Macedonia
2.66
Expected xG
0.49
Most likely outcome
Slovenia
80.54%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–0 (15.27%)
1X2 Result
1 81%
X 12%
2 7%
Double Chance
1X 93%
X2 20%
12 88%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 80%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Slovenia a 80% win probability, against 12% for a draw and 7% for FYR Macedonia. Expected goals are 2.7 for Slovenia and 0.5 for FYR Macedonia (total 3.1), with a 89% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 15.27% probability.

Season Stats

Slovenia
3W 3D 2L
FYR Macedonia
5W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.7
1.1
Conceded
0.2
4.0
Shots OT
4.7
2.9
Corners
3.5
44%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
67%
38%
O 2.5
17%
38%
BTTS
17%
50%
Clean Sht
83%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
Slovenia
2W 1D 1L · at home
FYR Macedonia
2W 1D 0L · away
1.5
gls/g
2.0
1.2
Conceded
0.3
50%
Win %
67%
75%
Win or Draw
100%
75%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
33%
25%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
33%
50%
Clean Sht
67%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Slovenia FYR Macedonia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% — —
1 11.4% 5.6% 1.4% 0.2% — —
2 15.2% 7.4% 1.8% 0.3% — —
3 13.5% 6.6% 1.6% 0.3% — —
4 9.0% 4.4% 1.1% 0.2% — —
5 4.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Slovenia Slovenia
W Slovakia 1–0
D Slovakia 0–0
D Austria 1–1
L Norway 1–4
W Kazakhstan 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia
W Faroe Islands 1–0
W Latvia 1–0
W Armenia 0–2
W Latvia 0–3
W Armenia 2–0

Playing profile

Slovenia Slovenia
Attack
30
Defence
63
Form
24
FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia
Attack
12
Defence
48
Form
3
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Scotland Scotland 0 0
2 Switzerland Switzerland 0 0
3 Slovenia Slovenia 0 0
4 FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Slovenia FYR Macedonia
Current #3 #4
→ Slovenia #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #2
→ FYR Macedonia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
The model gives Slovenia a 80% win probability, 12% for a draw, and 7% for an FYR Macedonia win.
How many goals are expected in Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
Expected goals: Slovenia 2.7, FYR Macedonia 0.5 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 89%.
What is the most likely score in Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.27%.