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Slovenia - Scotland

UEFA Nations League September 26, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Slovenia
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Scotland
#1 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 26.7°C 💨 17 km/h 🌧️ 52% · Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.22%
Win
Slovenia
20.33%
Draw
40.46%
Win
Scotland
2.01
Expected xG
2.13

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–2 (7.32%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 20%
2 40%
Double Chance
1X 60%
X2 61%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Scotland a 40% win probability, against 20% for a draw and 39% for Slovenia. Expected goals are 2.0 for Slovenia and 2.1 for Scotland (total 4.1), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–2 at 7.32% probability.

Season Stats

Slovenia
3W 3D 2L
Scotland
3W 1D 4L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.0
1.1
Conceded
1.4
4.0
Shots OT
3.1
2.9
Corners
3.5
44%
Poss.
48%
Percentages
63%
O 1.5
63%
38%
O 2.5
63%
38%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
38%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
63%
BTTS
Slovenia
2W 1D 1L · at home
Scotland
2W 0D 2L · away
1.5
gls/g
1.2
1.2
Conceded
1.2
50%
Win %
50%
75%
Win or Draw
50%
75%
O 1.5
75%
50%
O 2.5
75%
25%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
75%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Slovenia Scotland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.6% 3.4% 3.6% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6%
1 3.2% 6.8% 7.2% 5.2% 2.7% 1.2%
2 3.2% 6.8% 7.3% 5.2% 2.8% 1.2%
3 2.2% 4.6% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8%
4 1.1% 2.3% 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4%
5 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Recent form

Slovenia Slovenia
W Slovakia 1–0
D Slovakia 0–0
D Austria 1–1
L Norway 1–4
W Kazakhstan 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 23%
Scotland Scotland
L Greece 0–3
W Greece 0–1
W Poland 1–2
W Croatia 1–0
D Portugal 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 45%

Playing profile

Slovenia Slovenia
Attack
30
Defence
63
Form
24
Scotland Scotland
Attack
42
Defence
63
Form
53
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Scotland Scotland 0 0
2 Switzerland Switzerland 0 0
3 Slovenia Slovenia 0 0
4 FYR Macedonia FYR Macedonia 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Slovenia Scotland
Current #3 #1
→ Slovenia #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Scotland #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Slovenia vs Scotland?
The model gives Slovenia a 39% win probability, 20% for a draw, and 40% for an Scotland win.
How many goals are expected in Slovenia vs Scotland?
Expected goals: Slovenia 2.0, Scotland 2.1 (total 4.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Slovenia vs Scotland?
2–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.32%.