Somalia - Ghana
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.12%
Win
Somalia
40.37%
Draw
30.5%
Win
Ghana
0.45
0.49
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(16.55%)
1X2 Result
1
29%
X
40%
2
31%
Double Chance
1X
70%
X2
71%
12
60%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
55%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ghana a 30% win probability, against 40% for a draw and 29% for Somalia. Expected goals are 0.4 for Somalia and 0.5 for Ghana (total 0.9), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.55% probability.
Season Stats
0W
2D
2L
0W
0D
2L
Averages per game
0.2
Goals
1.0
1.0
Conceded
3.0
0.5
Shots OT
3.0
1.5
Corners
6.5
33%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
50%
25%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
0%
BTTS
0W
1D
1L
· at home
0W
0D
1L
· away
0.0
gls/g
0.0
1.0
Conceded
2.0
0%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
100%
Failed to Score
100%
last 2
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Somalia
Ghana →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39.2% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2 | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 4 | 0.1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Somalia
Attack
6
Defence
62
Form
34
Ghana
Attack
20
Defence
57
Form
8
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group C
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ivory Coast
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Gambia
|
2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Somalia
|
2 | 0 |
| 4 |
Ghana
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group C
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #4 |
| → Somalia | #3 | #4 |
| → Draw | #3 | #4 |
| → Ghana | #4 | #3 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Somalia vs Ghana?
The model gives Somalia a 29% win probability, 40% for a draw, and 30% for an Ghana win.
How many goals are expected in Somalia vs Ghana?
Expected goals: Somalia 0.4, Ghana 0.5 (total 0.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Somalia vs Ghana?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.55%.