World Cup
· Round of 32
June 28, 2026 21:00
90'+2
S. Eustaquio
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Canada a 37% win probability (draw 36%, South Africa 26%). The final result was South Africa 0–1 Canada.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
12
1
Shots on target
7
0.13
Actual xG
1.32
5
Saves
1
58%
Possession
42%
1
Corners
4
22
Tackles
20
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
R. Mofokeng
/ T. Mbatha
46'
54'
N. Saliba
59'
N. Sigur
/
N. Saliba
59'
L. De Fougerolles
/
M. Bombito
67'
N. Sigur
70'
P. David
/
T. Oluwaseyi
70'
J. Shaffelburg
/
L. Millar
75'
A. Davies
/
T. Buchanan
E. Makgopa
/ I. Rayners
86'
T. Maseko
/ T. Moremi
86'
90'+2
S. Eustaquio⚽
Pre-match prediction
26.51%
South
36.4%
X
37.09%
Canada ←
we assigned to the actual result (Canada)
37.09%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.86
0.13
-0.73
1.07
1.32
+0.25
Canada dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.13).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Ronwen Williams
G
Ronwen Williams
G
6
A. Modiba
D
A. Modiba
D
14
M. Mbokazi
D
M. Mbokazi
D
21
I. Okon
D
I. Okon
D
20
K. Mudau
D
K. Mudau
D
13
S. Sithole
M
S. Sithole
M
4
T. Mokoena
M
T. Mokoena
M
7
O. Appollis
M
O. Appollis
M
10
R. Mofokeng
45'
M
R. Mofokeng
45'
M
12
T. Maseko
86'
M
T. Maseko
86'
M
17
E. Makgopa
86'
F
E. Makgopa
86'
F
Bench
26
Bradley Cross
D
Bradley Cross
D
15
I. Rayners
8'
F
I. Rayners
8'
F
23
J. Adams
M
J. Adams
M
3
Khulumani Ndamane
D
Khulumani Ndamane
D
25
K. Sebelebele
M
K. Sebelebele
M
9
L. Foster
F
L. Foster
F
19
Nkosinathi Sibisi
D
Nkosinathi Sibisi
D
24
O. Makhanya
D
O. Makhanya
D
22
Ricardo Goss
G
Ricardo Goss
G
16
Sipho Chaine
G
Sipho Chaine
G
18
S. Kabini
D
S. Kabini
D
2
Tholo Thabang Matuludi
D
Tholo Thabang Matuludi
D
5
T. Mbatha
49'
M
T. Mbatha
49'
M
8
T. Moremi
8'
F
T. Moremi
8'
F
16
M. Crépeau
G
M. Crépeau
G
22
R. Laryea
D
R. Laryea
D
13
D. Cornelius
D
D. Cornelius
D
15
Moise Bombito
59'
D
Moise Bombito
59'
D
2
A. Johnston
D
A. Johnston
D
11
L. Millar
70'
M
L. Millar
70'
M
7
S. Eustáquio
1 ⚽
M
S. Eustáquio
1 ⚽
M
25
N. Saliba
59'
M
N. Saliba
59'
M
17
T. Buchanan
75'
M
T. Buchanan
75'
M
12
T. Oluwaseyi
70'
F
T. Oluwaseyi
70'
F
10
J. David
F
J. David
F
Bench
19
A. Davies
19'
D
A. Davies
19'
D
3
A. Jones
D
A. Jones
D
20
Ali Ahmed
M
Ali Ahmed
M
9
C. Larin
F
C. Larin
F
1
D. St. Clair
G
D. St. Clair
G
26
J. Nelson
F
J. Nelson
F
21
J. Osorio
M
J. Osorio
M
14
J. Shaffelburg
24'
F
J. Shaffelburg
24'
F
5
J. Waterman
D
J. Waterman
D
4
L. De Fougerolles
35'
D
L. De Fougerolles
35'
D
6
M. Choinière
M
M. Choinière
M
23
N. Sigur
35'
M
N. Sigur
35'
M
18
O. Goodman
G
O. Goodman
G
24
P. David
24'
F
P. David
24'
F
Best on the pitch
S. Eustáquio
M · Canada
8.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 47 pass
Ronwen Williams
G · South
8.30
· 83 pass
A. Modiba
D · South
7.60
· 33 pass
L. De Fougerolles
D · Canada
7.50
1 shots
· 17 pass
M. Mbokazi
D · South
7.30
· 85 pass
S. Sithole
M · South
7.30
· 56 pass
South Africa — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronwen Williams | G | 94 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 83 | 75% | — | — | — |
| A. Modiba | D | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Mbokazi | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 85 | 77% | 3 | — | — |
| I. Okon | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 89 | 80% | — | — | — |
| K. Mudau | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Sithole | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 45% | 7 | — | — |
| T. Mokoena | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 55 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| O. Appollis | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Mofokeng | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Maseko | M | 86 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 4 | — | — |
| E. Makgopa | F | 86 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | — | — | — |
| I. Rayners | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| T. Mbatha | M | 49 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| T. Moremi | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Canada — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Crépeau | G | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| R. Laryea | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Cornelius | D | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 45% | — | — | — |
| Moise Bombito | D | 59 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Johnston | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | — | — | — |
| L. Millar | M | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Eustáquio | M | 94 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 47 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Saliba | M | 59 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 18% | 3 | 1 | — |
| T. Buchanan | M | 75 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Oluwaseyi | F | 70 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| J. David | F | 94 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 23 | 17% | — | — | — |
| A. Davies | D | 19 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | — | — | — |
| J. Shaffelburg | F | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| L. De Fougerolles | D | 35 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Sigur | M | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| P. David | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of South Africa vs Canada?
The final score was South Africa 0–1 Canada.
What did the model predict before South Africa vs Canada?
The model assigned 26% probability to a South Africa win, 36% to a draw, and 37% to an Canada win.