South Africa - Kenya
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
48.35%
Win
South Africa
30.16%
Draw
21.49%
Win
Kenya
1.19
0.61
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(18.26%)
1X2 Result
1
48%
X
30%
2
21%
Double Chance
1X
79%
X2
52%
12
70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
81%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
58%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives South Africa a 48% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Kenya. Expected goals are 1.2 for South Africa and 0.6 for Kenya (total 1.8), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.26% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
0L
0W
1D
1L
Averages per game
3.5
Goals
0.5
0.5
Conceded
1.0
7.0
Shots OT
4.0
6.5
Corners
5.0
60%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
0%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ South Africa
Kenya →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 19.7% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 11.7% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 4.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
South Africa
Attack
41
Defence
71
Form
65
Kenya
Attack
31
Defence
80
Form
23
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group D
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
South Africa
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Guinea
|
2 | 3 |
| 3 |
Eritrea
|
2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Kenya
|
2 | 1 |
What's at stake · Group D
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #4 |
| → South Africa | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #3 |
| → Kenya | #1 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win South Africa vs Kenya?
The model gives South Africa a 48% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 21% for an Kenya win.
How many goals are expected in South Africa vs Kenya?
Expected goals: South Africa 1.2, Kenya 0.6 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in South Africa vs Kenya?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.26%.