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Championship · Regular Season - 11 October 17, 2026 16:00 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
Southampton
#6 · 20 pts
0 – 0
Final score
Bolton
#18 · 14 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction Southampton, result Draw
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 54% win probability (draw 23%, Bolton 22%). The final result was Southampton 0–0 Bolton.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
14
2
Shots on target
3
1.91
Actual xG
1.24
3
Saves
2
62%
Possession
38%
5
Corners
3
8
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
↕ Cyle Larin / Lewis Dobbin
41'
44'
Akin Famewo
45'
Ruben Rodrigues / Atsuki Ito ↕
↕ Tom Fellows / Kuryu Matsuki
45'
Cameron Bragg
59'
61'
Ethan Erhahon / Xavier Simons ↕
61'
Kyliane Dong / Thierry Gale ↕
↕ Welington / Ryan Manning
73'
↕ Cameron Bragg / Samuel Edozie
73'
73'
Thelonius Bair / Sam Dalby ↕
76'
Lewis Brunt
83'
Thelonius Bair
Kuryu Matsuki
85'
87'
Samuel Iling / Gaizka Larrazabal ↕
88'
Luca Stephenson
Pre-match prediction
54.19%
Southampton
23.1%
X ←
22.7%
Bolton
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 23.1% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Southampton
2.53
1.91
-0.62
Bolton
1.43
1.24
-0.19
Southampton dominated by xG (1.91 vs 1.24). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
1 Daniel Peretz Daniel Peretz G 7.27
34 Welington Welington 73' D 6.65
13 K. Schlotterbeck K. Schlotterbeck D 7.38
5 J. Stephens J. Stephens D 6.89
14 J. Bree J. Bree D 6.75
26 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg 73' M 6.60
30 J. Ward-Prowse J. Ward-Prowse M 7.01
7 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza M 7.06
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz M 6.47
18 T. Fellows T. Fellows 45' M 7.05
9 C. Larin C. Larin 41' F 6.50
Bench
8 C. Jander C. Jander M 0.00
28 D. Mubama D. Mubama F 0.00
25 G. Long G. Long G 0.00
27 K. Matsuki K. Matsuki 45' M 6.86
11 L. Dobbin L. Dobbin 49' F 6.17
15 N. Wood-Gordon N. Wood-Gordon D 0.00
3 R. Manning R. Manning 17' D 6.59
23 S. Edozie S. Edozie 17' M 7.23
6 Z. Abbott Z. Abbott D 0.00
Bolton Bolton 4-2-3-1
31 G. Bazunu G. Bazunu G 6.67
14 A. Famewo A. Famewo D 6.09
5 L. Brunt L. Brunt D 6.82
18 E. Toal E. Toal D 6.68
27 Luca Stephenson Luca Stephenson D 6.38
4 X. Simons X. Simons 61' M 6.26
8 J. Sheehan J. Sheehan M 6.22
11 T. Gale T. Gale 61' M 6.08
17 A. Ito A. Ito 45' M 6.52
22 Gaizka Larrazabal Gaizka Larrazabal 87' M 6.40
10 S. Dalby S. Dalby 73' F 6.79
Bench
6 B. Davies B. Davies D 0.00
21 E. Erhahon E. Erhahon 29' M 6.91
1 J. Bonham J. Bonham G 0.00
7 K. Dong K. Dong 29' F 6.64
25 M. Conway M. Conway D 0.00
39 R. Hardie R. Hardie F 0.00
20 Ruben Rodrigues Ruben Rodrigues 45' F 7.20
16 S. Iling-Junior S. Iling-Junior 3' F 6.45
9 T. Bair T. Bair 17' F 6.61
Best on the pitch
K. Schlotterbeck
K. Schlotterbeck
D · Southampton
7.38
1 shots · 84 pass
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz
G · Southampton
7.27
· 39 pass
S. Edozie
S. Edozie
M · Southampton
7.23
2 shots · 6 pass
Ruben Rodrigues
Ruben Rodrigues
F · Bolton
7.20
2 shots · 11 pass
Léo Scienza
Léo Scienza
M · Southampton
7.06
2 shots · 36 pass
T. Fellows
T. Fellows
M · Southampton
7.05
1 shots · 20 pass
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Peretz G 90 7.27 — — 0 39 33% 0 — —
Welington D 73 6.65 — — 1 40 33% 1 — —
K. Schlotterbeck D 90 7.38 — — 1 84 76% 1 — —
J. Stephens D 90 6.89 — — 0 96 88% 0 — —
J. Bree D 90 6.75 — — 2 25 22% 0 — —
Cameron Bragg M 73 6.60 — — 0 64 55% 2 1 —
J. Ward-Prowse M 90 7.01 — — 0 79 74% 1 — —
Léo Scienza M 90 7.06 — — 2 36 33% 0 — —
F. Azaz M 90 6.47 — — 1 54 39% 1 — —
T. Fellows M 45 7.05 — — 1 20 18% 1 — —
C. Larin F 41 6.50 — — 1 5 2% 0 — —
K. Matsuki M 45 6.86 — — 1 33 28% 0 1 —
L. Dobbin F 49 6.17 — — 2 12 10% 0 — —
R. Manning D 17 6.59 — — 0 18 13% 1 — —
S. Edozie M 17 7.23 — — 2 6 5% 0 — —
Bolton Bolton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G. Bazunu G 90 6.67 — — 0 53 27% 0 — —
A. Famewo D 90 6.09 — — 1 39 29% 0 1 —
L. Brunt D 90 6.82 — — 0 33 31% 2 1 —
E. Toal D 90 6.68 — — 1 49 41% 1 — —
Luca Stephenson D 90 6.38 — — 0 27 21% 1 1 —
X. Simons M 61 6.26 — — 1 26 20% 0 — —
J. Sheehan M 90 6.22 — — 1 45 37% 1 — —
T. Gale M 61 6.08 — — 3 10 8% 1 — —
A. Ito M 45 6.52 — — 0 9 5% 1 — —
Gaizka Larrazabal M 87 6.40 — — 0 23 16% 0 — —
S. Dalby F 73 6.79 — — 1 16 9% 0 — —
E. Erhahon M 29 6.91 — — 0 14 12% 0 — —
K. Dong F 29 6.64 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
Ruben Rodrigues F 45 7.20 — — 2 11 7% 1 — —
S. Iling-Junior F 3 6.45 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
T. Bair F 17 6.61 — — 3 4 3% 0 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Bolton?
The final score was Southampton 0–0 Bolton.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Bolton?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Southampton win, 23% to a draw, and 22% to an Bolton win.