Championship
· Semi-finals
May 12, 2026 21:00
R. Stewart
45'+1
S. Charles
(ast. T. Harwood-Bellis)
116'
5'
(ast. C. Brittain)
R. McGree
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 42% win probability (draw 21%, Middlesbrough 35%). The final result was Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough. In 3 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Middlesbrough.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
7
Shots on target
3
1.99
Actual xG
0.88
2
Saves
4
60%
Possession
40%
11
Corners
5
23
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
5'
ast. C. Brittain ·
R. McGree⚽
13'
R. McGree
N. Wood
37'
38'
L. Ayling
⚽R. Stewart
45'+1
F. Azaz
56'
K. Matsuki
/ F. Downes
66'
73'
A. Browne
/
T. Conway
78'
A. Malanda
83'
L. Castledine
/
D. Strelec
R. Stewart
/ C. Larin
84'
L. Scienza
/ S. Edozie
85'
92'
C. Brittain
105'
J. Sarmiento
/
R. McGree
⚽S. Charles
· ast. T. Harwood-Bellis
116'
C. Jander
/ C. Bragg
119'
S. Edozie
/ Welington
119'
119'
S. Hansen
/
L. Ayling
D. Peretz
120'+3
C. Larin
120'+6
Pre-match prediction
42.43%
Southampton ←
21.83%
X
35.74%
Middlesbrough
we assigned to the actual result (Southampton)
42.43%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
1.99
-0.26
2.20
0.88
-1.32
Southampton dominated by xG (1.99 vs 0.88).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
41
Daniel Peretz
G
Daniel Peretz
G
3
R. Manning
D
R. Manning
D
15
Nathan Wood
D
Nathan Wood
D
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
1 👟
D
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
1 👟
D
14
James Bree
D
James Bree
D
20
Caspar Jander
M
Caspar Jander
M
24
Shea Charles
1 ⚽
M
Shea Charles
1 ⚽
M
27
Kuryu Matsuki
66'
M
Kuryu Matsuki
66'
M
10
F. Azaz
M
F. Azaz
M
13
Leo Scienza
85'
F
Leo Scienza
85'
F
11
Ross Stewart
1 ⚽
84'
F
Ross Stewart
1 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
19
Cameron Archer
F
Cameron Archer
F
48
Cameron Bragg
5'
M
Cameron Bragg
5'
M
9
C. Larin
40'
F
C. Larin
40'
F
4
Flynn Downes
58'
M
Flynn Downes
58'
M
25
George Long
G
George Long
G
5
Jack Stephens
D
Jack Stephens
D
23
Samuel Edozie
34'
M
Samuel Edozie
34'
M
18
Tom Fellows
M
Tom Fellows
M
34
Welington
5'
D
Welington
5'
D
31
Solomon Brynn
G
Solomon Brynn
G
29
Adilson Malanda
D
Adilson Malanda
D
6
Dael Fry
D
Dael Fry
D
12
Luke Ayling
D
Luke Ayling
D
3
Matt Targett
M
Matt Targett
M
8
Riley McGree
1 ⚽
M
Riley McGree
1 ⚽
M
18
Aidan Morris
M
Aidan Morris
M
2
Callum Brittain
1 👟
M
Callum Brittain
1 👟
M
9
T. Conway
73'
F
T. Conway
73'
F
11
Morgan Whittaker
F
Morgan Whittaker
F
13
David Strelec
83'
F
Bench
16
Alan Browne
51'
M
Alan Browne
51'
M
14
Alexander Gilbert
F
Alexander Gilbert
F
15
Finley Munroe
D
Finley Munroe
D
25
George Edmundson
D
George Edmundson
D
45
Jeremy Sarmiento
19'
M
Jeremy Sarmiento
19'
M
32
Joe Wildsmith
G
Joe Wildsmith
G
23
Leo Castledine
41'
M
Leo Castledine
41'
M
22
Samuel Silvera
F
Samuel Silvera
F
27
S. Hansen
5'
F
S. Hansen
5'
F
Best on the pitch
R. Manning
D · Southampton
8.60
2 shots
· 66 pass
Shea Charles
M · Southampton
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 49 pass
Adilson Malanda
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 36 pass
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.30
· 78 pass
Aidan Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.30
· 44 pass
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 16 pass
Southampton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Peretz | G | 124 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Manning | D | 124 | 8.60 | — | — | 2 | 66 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| Nathan Wood | D | 124 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 71% | — | 1 | — |
| Taylor Harwood-Bellis | D | 124 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 91 | 77% | — | — | — |
| James Bree | D | 124 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Caspar Jander | M | 119 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 78 | 71% | 9 | — | — |
| Shea Charles | M | 124 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 49 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| Kuryu Matsuki | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Azaz | M | 124 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 37% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Leo Scienza | F | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Ross Stewart | F | 84 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Cameron Bragg | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Larin | F | 40 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Flynn Downes | M | 58 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Samuel Edozie | M | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Welington | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Middlesbrough — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solomon Brynn | G | 124 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Adilson Malanda | D | 124 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Dael Fry | D | 124 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Luke Ayling | D | 119 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Matt Targett | M | 124 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 56 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Riley McGree | M | 105 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Aidan Morris | M | 124 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 5 | — | — |
| Callum Brittain | M | 124 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 40 | 30% | 3 | 1 | — |
| T. Conway | F | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Morgan Whittaker | F | 124 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| David Strelec | F | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| Alan Browne | M | 51 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Jeremy Sarmiento | M | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Leo Castledine | M | 41 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| S. Hansen | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Southampton win, 21% to a draw, and 35% to an Middlesbrough win.