Championship
· Semi-finals
May 12, 2026 21:00
R. Stewart
45'+1
S. Charles
(ast. T. Harwood-Bellis)
116'
5'
(ast. C. Brittain)
R. McGree
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 42% win probability (draw 21%, Middlesbrough 35%). The final result was Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough. In 3 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Middlesbrough.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
7
Shots on target
3
1.99
Actual xG
0.88
2
Saves
4
60%
Possession
40%
11
Corners
5
23
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
5'
ast. C. Brittain ·
R. McGree⚽
13'
R. McGree
N. Wood
37'
38'
L. Ayling
⚽R. Stewart
45'+1
F. Azaz
56'
K. Matsuki
/ F. Downes
66'
73'
A. Browne
/
T. Conway
78'
A. Malanda
83'
L. Castledine
/
D. Strelec
R. Stewart
/ C. Larin
84'
L. Scienza
/ S. Edozie
85'
92'
C. Brittain
105'
J. Sarmiento
/
R. McGree
⚽S. Charles
· ast. T. Harwood-Bellis
116'
C. Jander
/ C. Bragg
119'
S. Edozie
/ Welington
119'
119'
S. Hansen
/
L. Ayling
D. Peretz
120'+3
C. Larin
120'+6
Pre-match prediction
42.43%
Southampton ←
21.83%
X
35.74%
Middlesbrough
we assigned to the actual result (Southampton)
42.43%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
1.99
-0.26
2.20
0.88
-1.32
Southampton dominated by xG (1.99 vs 0.88).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
41
Daniel Peretz
G
Daniel Peretz
G
3
R. Manning
D
R. Manning
D
15
N. Wood-Gordon
D
N. Wood-Gordon
D
6
T. Harwood-Bellis
1 👟
D
T. Harwood-Bellis
1 👟
D
14
J. Bree
D
J. Bree
D
20
C. Jander
M
C. Jander
M
24
S. Charles
1 ⚽
M
S. Charles
1 ⚽
M
27
K. Matsuki
66'
M
K. Matsuki
66'
M
10
F. Azaz
M
F. Azaz
M
13
Léo Scienza
85'
F
Léo Scienza
85'
F
11
R. Stewart
1 ⚽
84'
F
R. Stewart
1 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
48
Cameron Bragg
5'
M
Cameron Bragg
5'
M
19
C. Archer
F
C. Archer
F
9
C. Larin
40'
F
C. Larin
40'
F
4
F. Downes
58'
M
F. Downes
58'
M
25
G. Long
G
G. Long
G
5
J. Stephens
D
J. Stephens
D
23
S. Edozie
34'
M
S. Edozie
34'
M
18
T. Fellows
M
T. Fellows
M
34
Welington
5'
D
Welington
5'
D
31
S. Brynn
G
S. Brynn
G
29
A. Malanda
D
A. Malanda
D
6
D. Fry
D
D. Fry
D
12
L. Ayling
D
L. Ayling
D
3
M. Targett
M
M. Targett
M
8
R. McGree
1 ⚽
M
R. McGree
1 ⚽
M
18
A. Morris
M
A. Morris
M
2
C. Brittain
1 👟
M
C. Brittain
1 👟
M
9
T. Conway
73'
F
T. Conway
73'
F
11
M. Whittaker
F
M. Whittaker
F
13
D. Strelec
83'
F
D. Strelec
83'
F
Bench
16
A. Browne
51'
M
A. Browne
51'
M
14
A. Gilbert
F
15
Finley Munroe
D
25
George Edmundson
D
George Edmundson
D
45
J. Sarmiento
19'
M
J. Sarmiento
19'
M
32
J. Wildsmith
G
23
Leo Castledine
41'
M
Leo Castledine
41'
M
27
Sontje Hansen
5'
F
Sontje Hansen
5'
F
22
S. Silvera
F
Best on the pitch
R. Manning
D · Southampton
8.60
2 shots
· 66 pass
S. Charles
M · Southampton
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 49 pass
A. Malanda
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 36 pass
C. Jander
M · Southampton
7.30
· 78 pass
A. Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.30
· 44 pass
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 16 pass
Southampton — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Peretz | G | 124 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 21% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Manning | D | 124 | 8.60 | — | — | 2 | 66 | 48% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Wood-Gordon | D | 124 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 71% | — | 1 | — |
| T. Harwood-Bellis | D | 124 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 91 | 77% | — | — | — |
| J. Bree | D | 124 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 32 | 27% | — | — | — |
| C. Jander | M | 119 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 78 | 71% | 9 | — | — |
| S. Charles | M | 124 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 49 | 42% | 3 | — | — |
| K. Matsuki | M | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Azaz | M | 124 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 37% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Léo Scienza | F | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Stewart | F | 84 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Cameron Bragg | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Larin | F | 40 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
| F. Downes | M | 58 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Edozie | M | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Welington | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Middlesbrough — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Brynn | G | 124 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 4% | — | — | — |
| A. Malanda | D | 124 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 32% | 3 | 1 | — |
| D. Fry | D | 124 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Ayling | D | 119 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Targett | M | 124 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 56 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| R. McGree | M | 105 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Morris | M | 124 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 5 | — | — |
| C. Brittain | M | 124 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 40 | 30% | 3 | 1 | — |
| T. Conway | F | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| M. Whittaker | F | 124 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Strelec | F | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Browne | M | 51 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Sarmiento | M | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Leo Castledine | M | 41 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Sontje Hansen | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Southampton win, 21% to a draw, and 35% to an Middlesbrough win.