← Championship
Championship · Semi-finals May 12, 2026 21:00
Southampton
#4 · 80 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Middlesbrough
#5 · 80 pts
R. Stewart 45'+1
S. Charles (ast. T. Harwood-Bellis) 116'
5' (ast. C. Brittain) R. McGree

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 42% win probability (draw 21%, Middlesbrough 35%). The final result was Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough. In 3 previous meetings, Southampton have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Middlesbrough.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
9
7
Shots on target
3
1.99
Actual xG
0.88
2
Saves
4
60%
Possession
40%
11
Corners
5
23
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
5'
ast. C. Brittain · R. McGree⚽
13'
R. McGree
N. Wood
37'
38'
L. Ayling
⚽R. Stewart
45'+1
F. Azaz
56'
↕ K. Matsuki / F. Downes
66'
73'
A. Browne / T. Conway ↕
78'
A. Malanda
83'
L. Castledine / D. Strelec ↕
↕ R. Stewart / C. Larin
84'
↕ L. Scienza / S. Edozie
85'
92'
C. Brittain
105'
J. Sarmiento / R. McGree ↕
⚽S. Charles · ast. T. Harwood-Bellis
116'
↕ C. Jander / C. Bragg
119'
↕ S. Edozie / Welington
119'
119'
S. Hansen / L. Ayling ↕
D. Peretz
120'+3
C. Larin
120'+6
Pre-match prediction
42.43%
Southampton ←
21.83%
X
35.74%
Middlesbrough
we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 42.43% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Southampton
2.25
1.99
-0.26
Middlesbrough
2.20
0.88
-1.32
Southampton dominated by xG (1.99 vs 0.88). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 46 95
2 Ipswich Ipswich 46 84
3 Millwall Millwall 46 83
4 Southampton Southampton 46 80
5 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 80
6 Hull City Hull City 46 73
7 Wrexham Wrexham 46 71
8 Derby Derby 46 69
9 Norwich Norwich 46 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 46 64
11 Swansea Swansea 46 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 46 62
13 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 46 60
14 Preston Preston 46 60
15 QPR QPR 46 58
16 Watford Watford 46 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 46 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 46 55
19 Charlton Charlton 46 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 46 52
21 West Brom West Brom 46 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 46 47
23 Leicester Leicester 46 46
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 0
Lineups
Southampton Southampton 4-2-2-2
41 Daniel Peretz Daniel Peretz G 6.90
3 Ryan Manning Ryan Manning D 8.60
15 Nathan Wood Nathan Wood D 7.00
6 Taylor Harwood-Bellis Taylor Harwood-Bellis 1 👟 D 7.00
14 James Bree James Bree D 6.60
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander M 7.30
24 Shea Charles Shea Charles 1 ⚽ M 8.30
27 Kuryu Matsuki Kuryu Matsuki 66' M 6.30
10 F. Azaz F. Azaz M 7.00
13 Léo Scienza Léo Scienza 85' F 6.90
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 1 ⚽ 84' F 6.90
Bench
19 Cameron Archer Cameron Archer F
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg 5' M
9 C. Larin C. Larin 40' F 6.20
4 F. Downes F. Downes 58' M 6.60
25 George Long George Long G
5 Jack Stephens Jack Stephens D
23 Samuel Edozie Samuel Edozie 34' M 6.70
18 Tom Fellows Tom Fellows M
34 Welington Welington 5' D
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
31 Solomon Brynn Solomon Brynn G 6.90
29 Adilson Malanda Adilson Malanda D 7.70
6 Dael Fry Dael Fry D 6.90
12 Luke Ayling Luke Ayling D 6.60
3 Matt Targett Matt Targett M 7.00
8 Riley McGree Riley McGree 1 ⚽ M 7.20
18 Aidan Morris Aidan Morris M 7.30
2 Callum Brittain Callum Brittain 1 👟 M 6.90
9 T. Conway T. Conway 73' F 7.20
11 M. Whittaker M. Whittaker F 6.20
13 David Strelec David Strelec 83' F 6.30
Bench
16 Alan Browne Alan Browne 51' M 6.90
14 Alexander Gilbert Alexander Gilbert F
15 Finley Munroe Finley Munroe D
25 George Edmundson George Edmundson D
45 Jeremy Sarmiento Jeremy Sarmiento 19' M 6.50
32 Joe Wildsmith Joe Wildsmith G
23 Leo Castledine Leo Castledine 41' M 6.50
22 Samuel Silvera Samuel Silvera F
27 Sontje Hansen Sontje Hansen 5' F
Best on the pitch
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning
D · Southampton
8.60
2 shots · 66 pass
Shea Charles
Shea Charles
M · Southampton
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 49 pass
Adilson Malanda
Adilson Malanda
D · Middlesbrough
7.70
· 36 pass
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.30
· 78 pass
Aidan Morris
Aidan Morris
M · Middlesbrough
7.30
· 44 pass
T. Conway
T. Conway
F · Middlesbrough
7.20
· 16 pass
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Peretz G 124 6.90 — — — 33 21% — 1 —
Ryan Manning D 124 8.60 — — 2 66 48% 3 — —
Nathan Wood D 124 7.00 — — 1 76 71% — 1 —
Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 124 7.00 — 1 1 91 77% — — —
James Bree D 124 6.60 — — — 32 27% — — —
Caspar Jander M 119 7.30 — — — 78 71% 9 — —
Shea Charles M 124 8.30 1 — 1 49 42% 3 — —
Kuryu Matsuki M 66 6.30 — — — 24 16% 2 — —
F. Azaz M 124 7.00 — — 1 48 37% 3 1 —
Léo Scienza F 85 6.90 — — — 21 18% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 84 6.90 1 — 4 15 11% — — —
Cameron Bragg M 5 — — — — — — — — —
C. Larin F 40 6.20 — — 1 7 7% — — —
F. Downes M 58 6.60 — — — 38 35% 2 — —
Samuel Edozie M 34 6.70 — — 2 8 7% — — —
Welington D 5 — — — — — — — — —
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Solomon Brynn G 124 6.90 — — — 25 4% — — —
Adilson Malanda D 124 7.70 — — — 36 32% 3 1 —
Dael Fry D 124 6.90 — — 1 51 40% 1 — —
Luke Ayling D 119 6.60 — — 1 48 40% 3 1 —
Matt Targett M 124 7.00 — — — 56 43% 1 — —
Riley McGree M 105 7.20 1 — 1 28 27% 1 1 —
Aidan Morris M 124 7.30 — — — 44 40% 5 — —
Callum Brittain M 124 6.90 — 1 3 40 30% 3 1 —
T. Conway F 73 7.20 — — — 16 14% — — —
M. Whittaker F 124 6.20 — — 1 21 16% 1 — —
David Strelec F 83 6.30 — — — 9 8% 1 — —
Alan Browne M 51 6.90 — — 1 10 7% 1 — —
Jeremy Sarmiento M 19 6.50 — — — 5 3% — — —
Leo Castledine M 41 6.50 — — 1 7 5% — — —
Sontje Hansen F 5 — — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
The final score was Southampton 2–1 Middlesbrough.
What did the model predict before Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Southampton win, 21% to a draw, and 35% to an Middlesbrough win.