Southampton 3–1 Stoke City — pre-match prediction — Championship — August 22, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 2 August 22, 2026 16:00

Southampton

#6 · 20 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Stoke City

#9 · 20 pts

C. Larin (ast. F. Downes) 8'

D. Mubama (ast. F. Azaz) 89'

R. Manning 90'+4 (pen.)

26' (ast. S. Gallagher) E. Galbraith

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Southampton a 39% win probability (draw 30%, Stoke City 29%). The final result was Southampton 3–1 Stoke City. In 2 previous meetings, Southampton have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Stoke City.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.57

Actual xG

0.54

Saves

57%

Possession

43%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽C. Larin · ast. F. Downes

J. Bree

19'

26'

ast. S. Gallagher · E. Galbraith⚽

38'

S. Gallagher

F. Downes

50'

R. Manning

53'

62'

E. Galbraith

62'

R. Bozenik / G. Hirst ↕

70'

S. Ingelsson / S. Gallagher ↕

↕ C. Larin / D. Mubama

78'

↕ L. Scienza / L. Dobbin

78'

81'

T. Rigo / D. Soumare ↕

81'

M. Talovierov / E. Bocat ↕

82'

M. Talovierov

86'

S. Ingelsson

⚽D. Mubama · ast. F. Azaz

89'

90'+3

S. Ingelsson

90'+3

S. Ingelsson

⚽R. Manning (pen.)

90'+4

↕ K. Matsuki / C. Bragg

90'+5

↕ F. Azaz / R. Akachukwu

90'+5

↕ T. Fellows / S. Edozie

90'

Pre-match prediction

39.64%

Southampton ←

30.73%

29.63%

Stoke

we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 39.64% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Southampton

2.17

0.57

-1.6

Stoke

1.39

0.54

-0.85

xG dominance was balanced (0.57 – 0.54). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	25
2	Swansea	12	23
3	West Ham	12	22
4	Wolves	12	21
5	West Brom	12	21
6	Southampton	12	20
7	Birmingham	12	20
8	QPR	12	20
9	Stoke City	12	20
10	Blackburn	12	18
11	Portsmouth	12	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	16
13	Millwall	12	15
14	Bristol City	12	15
15	Lincoln	12	15
16	Cardiff	12	14
17	Wrexham	12	14
18	Bolton	12	14
19	Charlton	12	14
20	Norwich	12	12
21	Watford	12	11
22	Burnley	12	8
23	Derby	12	7
24	Preston	12	5

Lineups

Southampton 4-2-3-1

Daniel Peretz 49' G 6.00

R. Manning 1 ⚽ 49' D 6.90

J. Stephens 49' D 6.70

N. Wood-Gordon 49' D 6.90

J. Bree 49' D 6.20

K. Matsuki 49' M 6.30

F. Downes 1 👟 49' M 6.60

Léo Scienza 49' M 6.70

F. Azaz 1 👟 49' M 6.30

T. Fellows 49' M 6.90

C. Larin 1 ⚽ 49' F 7.30

Bench

Cameron Bragg M

C. Archer F

D. Mubama 1 ⚽ F

G. Long G

J. Quarshie D

L. Dobbin F

R. Akachukwu M

S. Edozie M

Welington D

Stoke City 4-2-3-1

V. Johansson 49' G 6.30

E. Bocat 49' D 6.50

B. Gibson 49' D 7.30

B. Wilmot 49' D 6.30

B. Johnson 49' D 6.30

E. Galbraith 1 ⚽ 49' M 7.30

El Hadji Djibril Soumaré 49' M 6.90

S. Thomas 49' M 6.90

Bae Jun-Ho 49' M 7.20

S. Gallagher 1 👟 49' M 6.60

G. Hirst 49' F 6.50

Bench

B. Pearson M

J. Griffiths G

Laurence Giani D

L. Graham D

M. Manhoef F

M. Talovierov D

R. Boženík F

S. Ingelsson M

T. Rigo M

Best on the pitch

C. Larin

F · Southampton

7.30

1 ⚽

2 shots · 4 pass

B. Gibson

D · Stoke

7.30

2 shots · 32 pass

E. Galbraith

M · Stoke

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 25 pass

Bae Jun-Ho

M · Stoke

7.20

1 shots · 18 pass

R. Manning

D · Southampton

6.90

1 ⚽

· 30 pass

N. Wood-Gordon

D · Southampton

6.90

· 33 pass

Southampton — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Daniel Peretz	G	49	6.00	—	—	—	23	16%	—	—	—
R. Manning	D	49	6.90	1	—	—	30	22%	3	—	—
J. Stephens	D	49	6.70	—	—	—	45	41%	—	—	—
N. Wood-Gordon	D	49	6.90	—	—	—	33	30%	1	—	—
J. Bree	D	49	6.20	—	—	—	22	20%	1	1	—
K. Matsuki	M	49	6.30	—	—	—	33	27%	—	—	—
F. Downes	M	49	6.60	—	1	—	28	26%	3	—	—
Léo Scienza	M	49	6.70	—	—	—	13	12%	—	—	—
F. Azaz	M	49	6.30	—	1	1	19	18%	2	—	—
T. Fellows	M	49	6.90	—	—	—	21	18%	—	—	—
C. Larin	F	49	7.30	1	—	2	4	2%	1	—	—

Stoke City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
V. Johansson	G	49	6.30	—	—	—	19	13%	—	—	—
E. Bocat	D	49	6.50	—	—	—	18	17%	1	—	—
B. Gibson	D	49	7.30	—	—	2	32	30%	1	—	—
B. Wilmot	D	49	6.30	—	—	—	24	21%	—	—	—
B. Johnson	D	49	6.30	—	—	—	15	13%	—	—	—
E. Galbraith	M	49	7.30	1	—	1	25	23%	1	—	—
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré	M	49	6.90	—	—	1	20	16%	1	—	—
S. Thomas	M	49	6.90	—	—	—	13	11%	—	—	—
Bae Jun-Ho	M	49	7.20	—	—	1	18	16%	1	—	—
S. Gallagher	M	49	6.60	—	1	1	11	3%	—	1	—
G. Hirst	F	49	6.50	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Southampton vs Stoke City?

The final score was Southampton 3–1 Stoke City.

What did the model predict before Southampton vs Stoke City?

The model assigned 39% probability to a Southampton win, 30% to a draw, and 29% to an Stoke City win.