✓Model correct — prediction Spain
F. Ruiz
30'
M. Merino
88'
41'
(ast. T. Castagne)
C. De Ketelaere
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spain a 56% win probability (draw 25%, Belgium 18%). The final result was Spain 2–1 Belgium.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
3
7
Shots on target
2
2.04
Actual xG
0.38
1
Saves
5
68%
Possession
32%
5
Corners
1
11
Tackles
9
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽F. Ruiz
30'
41'
ast. T. Castagne ·
C. De Ketelaere⚽
P. Cubarsi
43'
A. Baena
/ F. Torres
55'
F. Ruiz
/ Pedri
55'
60'
A. Witsel
/
L. Trossard
60'
R. Lukaku
/
H. Vanaken
61'
J. Seys
/
M. De Cuyper
71'
S. Lammens
/
T. Courtois
M. Oyarzabal
/ N. Williams
79'
85'
K. De Bruyne
86'
A. Saelemaekers
/
K. De Bruyne
D. Olmo
/ M. Merino
86'
⚽M. Merino
88'
A. Laporte
90'+3
90'+5
A. Witsel
Pre-match prediction
56.34%
Spain ←
25.06%
X
18.6%
Belgium
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Spain)
56.34%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.12
2.04
-0.08
1.18
0.38
-0.8
Spain dominated by xG (2.04 vs 0.38).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Unai Simón
G
Unai Simón
G
24
Marc Cucurella
D
Marc Cucurella
D
14
Aymeric Laporte
D
Aymeric Laporte
D
22
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
12
Pedro Porro
D
Pedro Porro
D
8
Fabián Ruiz
1 ⚽
55'
M
Fabián Ruiz
1 ⚽
55'
M
16
Rodri
M
Rodri
M
15
Álex Baena
55'
M
Álex Baena
55'
M
10
Dani Olmo
86'
M
Dani Olmo
86'
M
19
Lamine Yamal
M
Lamine Yamal
M
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
79'
F
Mikel Oyarzabal
79'
F
Bench
3
Álex Grimaldo
D
Álex Grimaldo
D
26
Borja Iglesias
F
Borja Iglesias
F
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
4
Eric García
D
Eric García
D
7
Ferran Torres
39'
F
Ferran Torres
39'
F
9
Gavi
M
Gavi
M
13
Joan García
G
Joan García
G
5
Marcos Llorente
M
Marcos Llorente
M
2
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
18
Martín Zubimendi
M
Martín Zubimendi
M
6
Mikel Merino
1 ⚽
8'
M
Mikel Merino
1 ⚽
8'
M
17
Nico Williams
15'
F
Nico Williams
15'
F
20
Pedri
39'
M
Pedri
39'
M
25
Víctor Muñoz
F
Víctor Muñoz
F
11
Yeremy Pino
M
Yeremy Pino
M
1
T. Courtois
71'
G
T. Courtois
71'
G
5
M. De Cuyper
61'
D
M. De Cuyper
61'
D
4
B. Mechele
D
B. Mechele
D
25
N. Ngoy
D
N. Ngoy
D
21
T. Castagne
1 👟
D
T. Castagne
1 👟
D
23
N. Raskin
M
N. Raskin
M
20
H. Vanaken
60'
M
H. Vanaken
60'
M
11
J. Doku
M
J. Doku
M
7
K. De Bruyne
86'
M
K. De Bruyne
86'
M
10
L. Trossard
60'
M
L. Trossard
60'
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
1 ⚽
F
C. De Ketelaere
1 ⚽
F
Bench
22
Alexis Saelemaekers
8'
F
Alexis Saelemaekers
8'
F
3
A. Theate
D
A. Theate
D
6
A. Witsel
34'
M
A. Witsel
34'
M
19
Diego Moreira
F
Diego Moreira
F
14
D. Lukebakio
F
D. Lukebakio
F
18
J. Seys
33'
D
J. Seys
33'
D
16
Koni De Winter
D
Koni De Winter
D
26
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
M. Fernandez-Pardo
F
13
M. Penders
G
M. Penders
G
9
R. Lukaku
34'
F
R. Lukaku
34'
F
12
S. Lammens
23'
G
S. Lammens
23'
G
15
T. Meunier
D
T. Meunier
D
Best on the pitch
T. Courtois
G · Belgium
7.90
· 29 pass
C. De Ketelaere
F · Belgium
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
Fabián Ruiz
M · Spain
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 40 pass
Rodri
M · Spain
7.30
· 101 pass
Dani Olmo
M · Spain
7.30
2 shots
· 42 pass
Lamine Yamal
M · Spain
7.30
4 shots
· 47 pass
Spain — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unai Simón | G | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 65 | 62% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 90 | 88% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Pedro Porro | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 74 | 65% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 55 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 40 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 101 | 95% | 1 | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 55 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 86 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | 4 | 47 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 39 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 8 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Nico Williams | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 39 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | — | — | — |
Belgium — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Courtois | G | 71 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | — | — | — |
| M. De Cuyper | D | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| B. Mechele | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Ngoy | D | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Castagne | D | 94 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 25 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Raskin | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Vanaken | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Doku | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| K. De Bruyne | M | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Trossard | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 94 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | F | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Witsel | M | 34 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Seys | D | 33 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Lukaku | F | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Lammens | G | 23 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Spain vs Belgium?
The final score was Spain 2–1 Belgium.
What did the model predict before Spain vs Belgium?
The model assigned 56% probability to a Spain win, 25% to a draw, and 18% to an Belgium win.