✗Model wrong — prediction Sparta Praha, result Draw
Josimar Alcocer
(ast. Jonatan Braut Brunes)
56'
90'+1
(ast. Gustav Nordh)
Thomas Lehne Olsen
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sparta Praha a 71% win probability (draw 13%, Lillestrom 14%). The final result was Sparta Praha 1–1 Lillestrom.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
6
8
Shots on target
2
1.12
Actual xG
0.80
1
Saves
6
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
1
13
Tackles
24
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
Martin Suchomel
18'
28'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
Ebrima Singhateh
30'
Ebrima Singhateh
/ Josimar Alcocer
45'
⚽Josimar Alcocer
· ast. Jonatan Braut Brunes
56'
Sivert Heggheim Mannsverk
/ Roman Macek
61'
Matej Jurasek
/ John Mercado
61'
Martin Suchomel
/ Ki-Jana Hoever
61'
65'
Eric Kitolano
/
Daniel Bassi
65'
Thomas Lehne Olsen
/
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
70'
Henrik Molvaer Melland
/
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim
73'
Frederik Elkaer
/
Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil
73'
Gustav Nordh
/
Felix Vá
Roman Macek
77'
Andy Irving
/ Santiago Eneme
85'
90'+1
ast. Gustav Nordh ·
Thomas Lehne Olsen⚽
90'+3
Henrik Molvaer Melland
Pre-match prediction
71.99%
Sparta
13.02%
X ←
14.99%
Lillestrom
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
13.02%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
4.50
1.12
-3.38
2.27
0.80
-1.47
Sparta Praha dominated by xG (1.12 vs 0.80).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
44
J. Surovčík
G
J. Surovčík
G
15
V. Vitályos
D
V. Vitályos
D
6
T. Guddal
D
T. Guddal
D
19
A. Ševínský
D
A. Ševínský
D
2
M. Suchomel
61'
D
M. Suchomel
61'
D
20
S. Mannsverk
61'
M
S. Mannsverk
61'
M
18
A. Irving
85'
M
A. Irving
85'
M
27
E. Singhateh
45'
M
E. Singhateh
45'
M
38
H. Sochurek
M
H. Sochurek
M
31
M. Jurásek
61'
M
M. Jurásek
61'
M
14
J. Braut Brunes
1 👟
F
J. Braut Brunes
1 👟
F
Bench
7
J. Alcócer
1 ⚽
45'
F
J. Alcócer
1 ⚽
45'
F
21
J. Grimaldo
F
J. Grimaldo
F
4
J. Martinec
D
J. Martinec
D
17
J. Mercado
29'
F
J. Mercado
29'
F
30
J. Zelený
D
J. Zelený
D
47
K. Hegyi
G
K. Hegyi
G
25
K. Hoever
29'
D
K. Hoever
29'
D
29
M. Vojta
F
M. Vojta
F
3
P. Kadeřábek
D
P. Kadeřábek
D
26
P. Vydra
M
P. Vydra
M
28
R. Macek
29'
M
R. Macek
29'
M
5
Santiago Eneme
5'
M
Santiago Eneme
5'
M
12
P. Dahlberg
G
P. Dahlberg
G
26
Y. Paintsil
73'
D
Y. Paintsil
73'
D
47
S. Kristiansen
D
S. Kristiansen
D
28
R. Gabrielsen
D
R. Gabrielsen
D
2
L. Ranger
D
L. Ranger
D
14
G. Nyheim
70'
M
G. Nyheim
70'
M
21
F. Ottosson
M
F. Ottosson
M
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
M
Y. Ibrahimaj
M
20
Vá
73'
F
Vá
73'
F
8
F. Gulbrandsen
65'
F
F. Gulbrandsen
65'
F
22
D. Bassi
65'
F
D. Bassi
65'
F
Bench
17
E. Kitolano
25'
M
E. Kitolano
25'
M
11
F. Elkær
17'
D
F. Elkær
17'
D
15
G. Nordh
1 👟
17'
F
G. Nordh
1 👟
17'
F
16
H. Melland
20'
M
H. Melland
20'
M
18
K. Krygård
M
K. Krygård
M
7
L. Alperud
M
L. Alperud
M
5
S. Foss
D
S. Foss
D
1
S. Hagerup
G
S. Hagerup
G
3
S. Ottesen
D
S. Ottesen
D
10
T. Lehne Olsen
1 ⚽
25'
F
T. Lehne Olsen
1 ⚽
25'
F
Best on the pitch
T. Lehne Olsen
F · Lillestrom
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 5 pass
J. Alcócer
F · Sparta
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 11 pass
J. Braut Brunes
F · Sparta
7.67
1 👟
2 shots
· 8 pass
P. Dahlberg
G · Lillestrom
7.26
· 46 pass
J. Mercado
F · Sparta
7.20
1 shots
· 6 pass
S. Kristiansen
D · Lillestrom
7.09
· 54 pass
Sparta Praha — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Surovčík | G | 90 | 6.44 | — | — | 0 | 28 | 20% | 0 | — | — |
| V. Vitályos | D | 90 | 7.02 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Guddal | D | 90 | 6.03 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 50% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Ševínský | D | 90 | 6.75 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Suchomel | D | 61 | 6.37 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Mannsverk | M | 61 | 6.81 | — | — | 0 | 43 | 39% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Irving | M | 85 | 6.72 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Singhateh | M | 45 | 6.29 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | 0 | 1 | — |
| H. Sochurek | M | 90 | 6.72 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 25% | 0 | — | — |
| M. Jurásek | M | 61 | 6.51 | — | — | 0 | 12 | 8% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Braut Brunes | F | 90 | 7.67 | — | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Alcócer | F | 45 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Mercado | F | 29 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Hoever | D | 29 | 6.16 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Macek | M | 29 | 6.05 | — | — | 0 | 20 | 15% | 0 | 1 | — |
| Santiago Eneme | M | 5 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
Lillestrom — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dahlberg | G | 90 | 7.26 | — | — | 0 | 46 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| Y. Paintsil | D | 73 | 6.48 | — | — | 0 | 24 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Kristiansen | D | 90 | 7.09 | — | — | 0 | 54 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| R. Gabrielsen | D | 90 | 6.74 | — | — | 0 | 68 | 59% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Ranger | D | 90 | 6.75 | — | — | 0 | 33 | 26% | 4 | — | — |
| G. Nyheim | M | 70 | 6.32 | — | — | 0 | 31 | 22% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Ottosson | M | 90 | 6.41 | — | — | 0 | 40 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Y. Ibrahimaj | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Vá | F | 73 | 5.95 | — | — | 0 | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Gulbrandsen | F | 65 | 6.20 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Bassi | F | 65 | 6.48 | — | — | 0 | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Kitolano | M | 25 | 6.27 | — | — | 0 | 7 | 4% | 0 | — | — |
| F. Elkær | D | 17 | 6.38 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Nordh | F | 17 | 6.81 | — | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| H. Melland | M | 20 | 5.84 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 2 | 1 | — |
| T. Lehne Olsen | F | 25 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 5 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
The final score was Sparta Praha 1–1 Lillestrom.
What did the model predict before Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
The model assigned 71% probability to a Sparta Praha win, 13% to a draw, and 14% to an Lillestrom win.