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Premier League · Regular Season - 9 September 16, 2026 17:30
Spartak Moscow
#4 · 19 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Fakel
#16 · 3 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Spartak Moscow
Manfred Ugalde 90'+1
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spartak Moscow a 55% win probability (draw 24%, Fakel 20%). The final result was Spartak Moscow 1–0 Fakel.

Match statistics
26
Total shots
2
5
Shots on target
1
1
Saves
3
75%
Possession
25%
11
Corners
2
6
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
39'
Hodaifa El Mhassani / Maksim Turishchev ↕
59'
Matvey Bardachev
↕ Mirlind Daku / Esequiel Barco
61'
↕ Marquinhos / Igor Dmitriev
61'
64'
Belajdi Pusi / Anton Kovalev ↕
64'
Nikolay Giorgobiani / Aleksandr Koksharov ↕
66'
Albert Gabaraev
66'
Matvey Bardachev
↕ Daniil Denisov / Danil Prutsev
75'
79'
Axel Gnapi / Butta Magomedov ↕
79'
Yuriy Zhuravlev / Darko Todorovic ↕
86'
Nikolay Giorgobiani
⚽Manfred Ugalde
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
55.04%
Spartak ←
24.45%
X
20.51%
Fakel
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Spartak Moscow) 55.04% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Spartak
2.03
—
—
Fakel
0.70
—
—
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar 9 21
2 Dynamo Dynamo 9 19
3 CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow 9 19
4 Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 9 19
5 Zenit Zenit 9 18
6 Rubin Rubin 9 12
7 Dinamo Makhachkala Dinamo Makhachkala 9 12
8 Baltika Baltika 9 11
9 Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov 9 11
10 Akhmat Akhmat 9 10
11 FC Orenburg FC Orenburg 9 9
12 FC Rostov FC Rostov 9 8
13 Akron Akron 9 8
14 Lokomotiv Lokomotiv 9 7
15 Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva 9 5
16 Fakel Fakel 9 3
Lineups
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
98 A. Maksimenko A. Maksimenko G 6.95
47 R. Zobnin R. Zobnin D 6.33
6 S. Babić S. Babić D 7.19
4
A. Djiku D 6.57
97 D. Denisov D. Denisov 75' D 6.65
83 Gedson Fernandes Gedson Fernandes M 6.67
18 N. Umyarov N. Umyarov M 6.23
10 Marquinhos Marquinhos 61' M 7.20
19 M. Daku M. Daku 61' M 6.37
7 P. Solari P. Solari M 6.88
9 M. Ugalde M. Ugalde 1 ⚽ F 8.18
Bench
56 A. Dovbnya A. Dovbnya G 0.00
25 D. Prutsev D. Prutsev 15' M 6.47
5 E. Barco E. Barco 29' M 6.77
27 I. Dmitriev I. Dmitriev 29' M 6.55
1 I. Pomazun I. Pomazun G 0.00
40 I. Sorokin I. Sorokin M 0.00
24 Nikita Massalyga Nikita Massalyga M 0.00
62 P. Polekh P. Polekh F 0.00
33 Víctor Parada Víctor Parada D 0.00
17 V. Saus V. Saus M 0.00
Fakel Fakel 3-4-3
1 D. Frolkin D. Frolkin G 5.94
53 M. Bardachev M. Bardachev 66' D 5.45
40 Clayton Clayton D 5.80
5 A. Gabaraev A. Gabaraev D 6.13
55 D. Todorović D. Todorović 79' M 5.86
23 V. Yakimov V. Yakimov M 5.79
52 R. Netfullin R. Netfullin M 6.16
17 A. Kovalev A. Kovalev 64' M 6.03
97 B. Magomedov B. Magomedov 79' F 6.66
90 A. Koksharov A. Koksharov 64' F 6.50
7 M. Turishchev M. Turishchev 39' F 6.18
Bench
8 A. Bagamaev A. Bagamaev M 0.00
9 A. Gnapi Dable A. Gnapi Dable 11' F 6.29
11 A. Sutormin A. Sutormin M 0.00
19 B. Pusi B. Pusi 26' F 6.28
22 H. El Mahasni H. El Mahasni 51' D 6.57
10 I. Alshin I. Alshin M 0.00
96 I. Obukhov I. Obukhov G 0.00
20 I. Yurganov I. Yurganov D 0.00
99 N. Giorgobiani N. Giorgobiani 26' M 6.12
35 V. Dorovskikh V. Dorovskikh G 0.00
44 Y. Zhuravlev Y. Zhuravlev 11' D 6.41
Best on the pitch
M. Ugalde
M. Ugalde
F · Spartak
8.18
1 ⚽
5 shots · 27 pass
Marquinhos
Marquinhos
M · Spartak
7.20
2 shots · 34 pass
S. Babić
S. Babić
D · Spartak
7.19
· 80 pass
A. Maksimenko
A. Maksimenko
G · Spartak
6.95
· 27 pass
P. Solari
P. Solari
M · Spartak
6.88
5 shots · 42 pass
E. Barco
E. Barco
M · Spartak
6.77
1 shots · 18 pass
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Maksimenko G 90 6.95 — — 0 27 25% 0 — —
R. Zobnin D 90 6.33 — — 1 73 59% 0 — —
S. Babić D 90 7.19 — — 0 80 69% 0 — —
A. Djiku D 90 6.57 — — 2 99 84% 1 — —
D. Denisov D 75 6.65 — — 0 38 31% 0 — —
Gedson Fernandes M 90 6.67 — — 5 61 53% 1 — —
N. Umyarov M 90 6.23 — — 3 65 48% 0 — —
Marquinhos M 61 7.20 — — 2 34 28% 0 — —
M. Daku M 61 6.37 — — 2 10 5% 1 — —
P. Solari M 90 6.88 — — 5 42 33% 2 — —
M. Ugalde F 90 8.18 1 — 5 27 17% 0 — —
D. Prutsev M 15 6.47 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
E. Barco M 29 6.77 — — 1 18 16% 0 — —
I. Dmitriev M 29 6.55 — — 0 10 8% 1 — —
Fakel Fakel — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Frolkin G 90 5.94 — — 0 30 8% 0 — —
M. Bardachev D 66 5.45 — — 0 16 12% 1 — 1
Clayton D 90 5.80 — — 0 20 11% 1 — —
A. Gabaraev D 90 6.13 — — 0 17 8% 3 1 —
D. Todorović M 79 5.86 — — 0 20 12% 3 — —
V. Yakimov M 90 5.79 — — 0 21 7% 1 — —
R. Netfullin M 90 6.16 — — 0 13 6% 0 — —
A. Kovalev M 64 6.03 — — 0 8 5% 1 — —
B. Magomedov F 79 6.66 — — 0 15 12% 2 — —
A. Koksharov F 64 6.50 — — 1 8 7% 0 — —
M. Turishchev F 39 6.18 — — 0 6 5% 0 — —
A. Gnapi Dable F 11 6.29 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
B. Pusi F 26 6.28 — — 0 6 5% 1 — —
H. El Mahasni D 51 6.57 — — 1 5 3% 1 — —
N. Giorgobiani M 26 6.12 — — 0 7 3% 0 1 —
Y. Zhuravlev D 11 6.41 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
The final score was Spartak Moscow 1–0 Fakel.
What did the model predict before Spartak Moscow vs Fakel?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Spartak Moscow win, 24% to a draw, and 20% to an Fakel win.