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Serie B · Regular Season - 35 April 18, 2026 15:00 Stadio Alberto Picco, La Spezia
Spezia
6 – 1
Final score
Sudtirol
#10 · 14 pts
M. Valoti 8' (pen.)
G. Di Serio 25'
P. Beruatto (ast. M. Valoti) 33'
G. Lapadula (ast. P. Beruatto) 70'
L. Sernicola 73'
G. Aurelio (ast. M. Valoti) 82'
20' (ast. M. R. Frigerio) E. Pecorino
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spezia a 44% win probability (draw 27%, Sudtirol 27%). The final result was Spezia 6–1 Sudtirol. In 1 previous meetings, Spezia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sudtirol.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
4
9
Shots on target
1
3.43
Actual xG
0.45
0
Saves
3
66%
Possession
34%
3
Corners
3
19
Tackles
13
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Valoti (pen.)
8'
20'
ast. M. R. Frigerio · E. Pecorino⚽
23'
K. Zedadka
⚽G. Di Serio
25'
↕ F. Bandinelli / C. Comotto
26'
28'
S. Davi / D. Crnigoj ↕
30'
S. Merkaj
⚽P. Beruatto · ast. M. Valoti
33'
↕ G. Di Serio / A. Nagy
46'
46'
D. Casiraghi / E. Pecorino ↕
46'
F. Tait / J. Martini ↕
61'
R. Odogwu / S. Merkaj ↕
⚽G. Lapadula · ast. P. Beruatto
70'
⚽L. Sernicola
73'
↕ L. Sernicola / L. Vignali
74'
↕ A. Romano / A. Bellemo
74'
77'
F. Bordon / M. R. Frigerio ↕
⚽G. Aurelio · ast. M. Valoti
82'
↕ M. Valoti / E. Lorenzelli
83'
Pre-match prediction
44.54%
Spezia ←
27.54%
X
27.91%
Sudtirol
we assigned to the actual result (Spezia) 44.54% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Spezia
1.65
3.43
+1.78
Sudtirol
1.01
0.45
-0.56
Spezia dominated by xG (3.43 vs 0.45). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palermo Palermo 11 27
2 Ascoli Ascoli 11 20
3 Modena Modena 10 20
4 Mantova Mantova 10 18
5 Avellino Avellino 10 15
6 Benevento Benevento 10 15
7 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 10 15
8 Pisa Pisa 10 15
9 Padova Padova 10 14
10 Sudtirol Sudtirol 10 14
11 Cremonese Cremonese 10 12
12 Cesena Cesena 10 12
13 Arezzo Arezzo 10 11
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 10 10
15 Carrarese Carrarese 10 10
16 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 10 9
17 Vicenza Virtus Vicenza Virtus 10 9
18 Empoli Empoli 10 8
19 Sampdoria Sampdoria 10 8
20 Catanzaro Catanzaro 10 6
Lineups
Spezia Spezia 3-5-2
12 D. Mascardi D. Mascardi G 6.50
31 G. Aurelio G. Aurelio 1 ⚽ D 7.30
55
P. Hristov D 7.20
37
A. Mateju D 6.30
11 P. Beruatto P. Beruatto 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.20
5 M. Valoti M. Valoti 1 ⚽ 2 👟 83' M 9.90
60 A. Romano A. Romano 75' M 7.20
25 F. Bandinelli F. Bandinelli 26' M 6.50
17 L. Sernicola L. Sernicola 1 ⚽ 74' M 8.00
10 G. Lapadula G. Lapadula 1 ⚽ F 6.90
20
G. Di Serio 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.20
Bench
8 Á. Nagy Á. Nagy 45' M 6.70
34 C. Comotto C. Comotto 64' M 6.70
70 E. Adamo E. Adamo M
32 L. Vignali L. Vignali 16' D 6.90
Sudtirol Sudtirol 3-5-2
31
G 5.90
34 Frédéric Veseli Frédéric Veseli D 5.30
19 N. Pietrangeli N. Pietrangeli D 4.90
23 F. Davi F. Davi D 5.20
7 K. Zedadka K. Zedadka 23' M 3.70
26 Marco Romano Frigerio Marco Romano Frigerio 1 👟 77' M 6.60
89
D. Črnigoj 28' M 6.20
6 J. Martini J. Martini 45' M 6.90
79 S. Molina S. Molina M 5.90
33 S. Merkaj S. Merkaj 61' F 5.60
9 E. Pecorino E. Pecorino 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.60
Bench
5
A. Masiello D
17 D. Casiraghi D. Casiraghi 45' M 6.50
21 F. Tait F. Tait 45' M 6.70
90 Raphael Odogwu Raphael Odogwu 29' F 6.70
11 Riccardo Tonin Riccardo Tonin F
24 S. Davì S. Davì 62' D 5.50
18 S. Tronchin S. Tronchin M
Best on the pitch
M. Valoti
M. Valoti
M · Spezia
9.90
1 ⚽ 2 👟
3 shots · 50 pass
P. Beruatto
P. Beruatto
M · Spezia
9.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 41 pass
L. Sernicola
L. Sernicola
M · Spezia
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 23 pass
E. Pecorino
E. Pecorino
F · Sudtirol
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 1 pass
G. Aurelio
G. Aurelio
D · Spezia
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 58 pass
P. Hristov
D · Spezia
7.20
· 71 pass
Spezia Spezia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Mascardi G 90 6.50 — — — 16 8% — — —
G. Aurelio D 90 7.30 1 — 1 58 46% 2 — —
P. Hristov D 90 7.20 — — — 71 64% 1 — —
A. Mateju D 90 6.30 — — — 53 42% 2 — —
P. Beruatto M 90 9.20 1 1 2 41 31% 2 — —
M. Valoti M 83 9.90 1 2 3 50 42% 3 — —
A. Romano M 75 7.20 — — 1 45 37% 3 — —
F. Bandinelli M 26 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
L. Sernicola M 74 8.00 1 — 1 23 14% 3 — —
G. Lapadula F 90 6.90 1 — 4 21 20% — — —
G. Di Serio F 45 7.20 1 — 2 8 7% — — —
Á. Nagy M 45 6.70 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
C. Comotto M 64 6.70 — — 1 31 28% — — —
L. Vignali D 16 6.90 — — — 4 4% 2 — —
Sudtirol Sudtirol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.90 — — — 20 9% — — —
Frédéric Veseli D 90 5.30 — — 1 26 21% 3 — —
N. Pietrangeli D 90 4.90 — — 1 20 10% — — —
F. Davi D 90 5.20 — — — 28 23% 2 — —
K. Zedadka M 23 3.70 — — — 5 2% 1 — 1
Marco Romano Frigerio M 77 6.60 — 1 — 34 25% 3 — —
D. Črnigoj M 28 6.20 — — — 7 5% — — —
J. Martini M 45 6.90 — — — 9 7% 2 — —
S. Molina M 90 5.90 — — — 33 16% 2 — —
S. Merkaj F 61 5.60 — — — 5 2% — 1 —
E. Pecorino F 45 7.60 1 — 1 1 1% — — —
D. Casiraghi M 45 6.50 — — — 9 7% — — —
F. Tait M 45 6.70 — — — 7 5% — — —
Raphael Odogwu F 29 6.70 — — 1 11 7% — — —
S. Davì D 62 5.50 — — — 9 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Spezia vs Sudtirol?
The final score was Spezia 6–1 Sudtirol.
What did the model predict before Spezia vs Sudtirol?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Spezia win, 27% to a draw, and 27% to an Sudtirol win.