← Serie B
Serie B · Regular Season - 35 April 18, 2026 15:00
Spezia
#19 · 35 pts
6 – 1
Final score
Sudtirol
#16 · 41 pts
M. Valoti 8' (pen.)
G. Di Serio 25'
P. Beruatto (ast. M. Valoti) 33'
G. Lapadula (ast. P. Beruatto) 70'
L. Sernicola 73'
G. Aurelio (ast. M. Valoti) 82'
20' (ast. M. R. Frigerio) E. Pecorino

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spezia a 44% win probability (draw 27%, Sudtirol 27%). The final result was Spezia 6–1 Sudtirol. In 1 previous meetings, Spezia have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Sudtirol.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
4
9
Shots on target
1
3.43
Actual xG
0.45
0
Saves
3
66%
Possession
34%
3
Corners
3
19
Tackles
13
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Valoti (pen.)
8'
20'
ast. M. R. Frigerio · E. Pecorino⚽
23'
K. Zedadka
⚽G. Di Serio
25'
↕ F. Bandinelli / C. Comotto
26'
28'
S. Davi / D. Crnigoj ↕
30'
S. Merkaj
⚽P. Beruatto · ast. M. Valoti
33'
↕ G. Di Serio / A. Nagy
46'
46'
D. Casiraghi / E. Pecorino ↕
46'
F. Tait / J. Martini ↕
61'
R. Odogwu / S. Merkaj ↕
⚽G. Lapadula · ast. P. Beruatto
70'
⚽L. Sernicola
73'
↕ L. Sernicola / L. Vignali
74'
↕ A. Romano / A. Bellemo
74'
77'
F. Bordon / M. R. Frigerio ↕
⚽G. Aurelio · ast. M. Valoti
82'
↕ M. Valoti / E. Lorenzelli
83'
Pre-match prediction
44.54%
Spezia ←
27.54%
X
27.91%
Sudtirol
we assigned to the actual result (Spezia) 44.54% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Spezia
1.65
3.43
+1.78
Sudtirol
1.01
0.45
-0.56
Spezia dominated by xG (3.43 vs 0.45). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Venezia Venezia 38 82
2 Frosinone Frosinone 38 81
3 Monza Monza 38 76
4 Palermo Palermo 38 72
5 Catanzaro Catanzaro 38 59
6 Modena Modena 38 55
7 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 38 51
8 Avellino Avellino 38 49
9 Mantova Mantova 38 46
10 Padova Padova 38 46
11 Cesena Cesena 38 46
12 Carrarese Carrarese 38 44
13 Sampdoria Sampdoria 38 44
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 38 42
15 Empoli Empoli 38 41
16 Sudtirol Sudtirol 38 41
17 Bari Bari 38 40
18 Reggiana Reggiana 38 37
19 Spezia Spezia 38 35
20 Pescara Pescara 38 35
Lineups
Spezia Spezia 3-5-2
12
D. Mascardi G 6.50
31
G. Aurelio 1 ⚽ D 7.30
55
P. Hristov D 7.20
37
A. Mateju D 6.30
11
P. Beruatto 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.20
5
M. Valoti 1 ⚽ 2 👟 83' M 9.90
60
Alessandro Romano 75' M 7.20
25
F. Bandinelli 26' M 6.50
17
L. Sernicola 1 ⚽ 74' M 8.00
10
G. Lapadula 1 ⚽ F 6.90
20
G. Di Serio 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.20
Bench
8
A. Nagy 45' M 6.70
34
C. Comotto 64' M 6.70
70
E. Adamo M
32
L. Vignali 16' D 6.90
Sudtirol Sudtirol 3-5-2
31
G 5.90
34
F. Veseli D 5.30
19
N. Pietrangeli D 4.90
23
F. Davi D 5.20
7
K. Zedadka 23' M 3.70
26
M. R. Frigerio 1 👟 77' M 6.60
89
D. Crnigoj 28' M 6.20
6
J. Martini 45' M 6.90
79
S. Molina M 5.90
33 S. Merkaj S. Merkaj 61' F 5.60
9 E. Pecorino E. Pecorino 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.60
Bench
5
A. Masiello D
17 D. Casiraghi D. Casiraghi 45' M 6.50
21
F. Tait 45' M 6.70
90
R. Odogwu 29' F 6.70
11
R. Tonin F
24
S. Davi 62' D 5.50
18
S. Tronchin M
Best on the pitch
M. Valoti
M · Spezia
9.90
1 ⚽ 2 👟
3 shots · 50 pass
P. Beruatto
M · Spezia
9.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 41 pass
L. Sernicola
M · Spezia
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 23 pass
E. Pecorino
E. Pecorino
F · Sudtirol
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 1 pass
G. Aurelio
D · Spezia
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 58 pass
P. Hristov
D · Spezia
7.20
· 71 pass
Spezia Spezia — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Mascardi G 90 6.50 — — — 16 8% — — —
G. Aurelio D 90 7.30 1 — 1 58 46% 2 — —
P. Hristov D 90 7.20 — — — 71 64% 1 — —
A. Mateju D 90 6.30 — — — 53 42% 2 — —
P. Beruatto M 90 9.20 1 1 2 41 31% 2 — —
M. Valoti M 83 9.90 1 2 3 50 42% 3 — —
Alessandro Romano M 75 7.20 — — 1 45 37% 3 — —
F. Bandinelli M 26 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
L. Sernicola M 74 8.00 1 — 1 23 14% 3 — —
G. Lapadula F 90 6.90 1 — 4 21 20% — — —
G. Di Serio F 45 7.20 1 — 2 8 7% — — —
A. Nagy M 45 6.70 — — — 26 23% 1 — —
C. Comotto M 64 6.70 — — 1 31 28% — — —
L. Vignali D 16 6.90 — — — 4 4% 2 — —
Sudtirol Sudtirol — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 5.90 — — — 20 9% — — —
F. Veseli D 90 5.30 — — 1 26 21% 3 — —
N. Pietrangeli D 90 4.90 — — 1 20 10% — — —
F. Davi D 90 5.20 — — — 28 23% 2 — —
K. Zedadka M 23 3.70 — — — 5 2% 1 — 1
M. R. Frigerio M 77 6.60 — 1 — 34 25% 3 — —
D. Crnigoj M 28 6.20 — — — 7 5% — — —
J. Martini M 45 6.90 — — — 9 7% 2 — —
S. Molina M 90 5.90 — — — 33 16% 2 — —
S. Merkaj F 61 5.60 — — — 5 2% — 1 —
E. Pecorino F 45 7.60 1 — 1 1 1% — — —
D. Casiraghi M 45 6.50 — — — 9 7% — — —
F. Tait M 45 6.70 — — — 7 5% — — —
R. Odogwu F 29 6.70 — — 1 11 7% — — —
S. Davi D 62 5.50 — — — 9 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Spezia vs Sudtirol?
The final score was Spezia 6–1 Sudtirol.
What did the model predict before Spezia vs Sudtirol?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Spezia win, 27% to a draw, and 27% to an Sudtirol win.