Sporting CP 3–1 Alverca — pre-match prediction — Primeira Liga — August 22, 2026

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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 3 August 22, 2026 21:30

Sporting CP

#3 · 13 pts

3 – 1

Final score

Alverca

#11 · 5 pts

M. Araujo 2'

Matheus Mendes 55' (og)

L. Suarez (ast. G. Catamo) 60'

88' (ast. V. Moreira) Figueiredo

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting CP a 41% win probability (draw 29%, Alverca 29%). The final result was Sporting CP 3–1 Alverca. In 2 previous meetings, Sporting CP have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Alverca.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.24

Actual xG

0.04

Saves

69%

Possession

31%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽M. Araujo

16'

Y. Bojang

G. Catamo

22'

39'

D. Gui

⚽Matheus Mendes (og)

55'

56'

A. Vidigal / Rayan Lucas ↕

56'

S. J. Merheg / V. Semedo ↕

⚽L. Suarez · ast. G. Catamo

60'

66'

M. Essimi / Chissumba ↕

↕ G. Catamo / Luis Guilherme

68'

↕ F. Goncalves / N. Irankunda

68'

74'

M. Essimi

75'

V. Moreira / Ian Luccas ↕

75'

Z. Kassary / D. Gui ↕

↕ Z. Debast / E. Quaresma

75'

↕ L. Suarez / R. Nel

75'

↕ R. Zalazar / Pedro Lima

88'

ast. V. Moreira · Figueiredo⚽

Pre-match prediction

41.16%

Sporting ←

29.53%

29.3%

Alverca

we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP) 41.16% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Sporting

3.49

0.24

-3.25

Alverca

1.81

0.04

-1.77

xG dominance was balanced (0.24 – 0.04). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	5	15
2	Benfica	5	13
3	Sporting CP	5	13
4	Santa Clara	5	11
5	Arouca	5	10
6	Estrela	5	9
7	GIL Vicente	4	7
8	SC Braga	4	7
9	Maritimo	5	7
10	Academico Viseu	5	5
11	Alverca	6	5
12	Vitória SC	5	4
13	Nacional	6	4
14	Moreirense	5	4
15	Famalicao	5	3
16	Rio Ave	5	3
17	Estoril	5	2
18	Casa Pia	5	1

Lineups

Sporting CP 4-2-3-1

Rui Silva 42' G 6.60

M. Araújo 1 ⚽ 42' D 7.70

Ibrahima Ba 42' D 6.60

Z. Debast 42' D 6.90

Iván Fresneda 42' D 6.30

I. Doumbia 42' M 6.70

Sergi Altimira 42' M 7.20

R. Zalazar 42' M 6.30

Flávio Gonçalves 42' M 6.70

Geny Catamo 1 👟 42' M 7.00

L. Suárez 1 ⚽ 42' F 6.30

Bench

Eduardo Felicíssimo M

Eduardo Quaresma D

Gonçalo Inácio D

G. Vagiannidis D

J. Derry F

João Virgínia G

Luis Guilherme F

N. Irankunda F

Pedro Lima M

Rafael Ferreira Nel F

Rodrigo Dias D

S. Andersen M

Alverca 3-4-2-1

Matheus Mendes 1 ⚽ 42' G 6.20

I. James 42' D 6.20

Y. Bojang 42' D 6.30

S. Baseya 42' D 6.30

Francisco Chissumba 42' M 6.20

Rayan 42' M 6.50

D. Gui 42' M 6.20

Zoubdi 42' M 6.20

Figueiredo 1 ⚽ 42' F 7.20

Ian Luccas 42' F 6.30

Vivaldo Semedo 42' F 6.30

Bench

André Paulo G

André Vidigal F

C. Nuozzi F

Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques D

I. Julian D

Jhonatan G

M. Essimi Ateba F

Sergi Gómez D

S. Merheg F

Toni Tamarit F

Vasco Moreira 1 👟 M

Z. Kassary M

Best on the pitch

M. Araújo

D · Sporting

7.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 26 pass

Sergi Altimira

M · Sporting

7.20

· 46 pass

Figueiredo

F · Alverca

7.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 10 pass

Geny Catamo

M · Sporting

7.00

1 👟

· 26 pass

Z. Debast

D · Sporting

6.90

· 46 pass

I. Doumbia

M · Sporting

6.70

· 25 pass

Sporting CP — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Rui Silva	G	42	6.60	—	—	—	21	21%	—	—	—
M. Araújo	D	42	7.70	1	—	1	26	24%	—	—	—
Ibrahima Ba	D	42	6.60	—	—	—	50	43%	—	—	—
Z. Debast	D	42	6.90	—	—	—	46	43%	—	—	—
Iván Fresneda	D	42	6.30	—	—	—	27	24%	2	—	—
I. Doumbia	M	42	6.70	—	—	—	25	24%	2	—	—
Sergi Altimira	M	42	7.20	—	—	—	46	46%	—	—	—
R. Zalazar	M	42	6.30	—	—	—	27	25%	2	—	—
Flávio Gonçalves	M	42	6.70	—	—	2	11	7%	1	—	—
Geny Catamo	M	42	7.00	—	1	—	26	22%	1	1	—
L. Suárez	F	42	6.30	1	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—

Alverca — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Matheus Mendes	G	42	6.20	1	—	—	9	9%	—	—	—
I. James	D	42	6.20	—	—	—	22	17%	2	—	—
Y. Bojang	D	42	6.30	—	—	—	22	20%	—	1	—
S. Baseya	D	42	6.30	—	—	—	21	17%	—	—	—
Francisco Chissumba	M	42	6.20	—	—	—	8	6%	—	—	—
Rayan	M	42	6.50	—	—	—	13	9%	1	—	—
D. Gui	M	42	6.20	—	—	—	11	10%	—	1	—
Zoubdi	M	42	6.20	—	—	—	14	9%	1	—	—
Figueiredo	F	42	7.20	1	—	1	10	4%	1	—	—
Ian Luccas	F	42	6.30	—	—	1	9	7%	—	—	—
Vivaldo Semedo	F	42	6.30	—	—	—	3	1%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Alverca?

The final score was Sporting CP 3–1 Alverca.

What did the model predict before Sporting CP vs Alverca?

The model assigned 41% probability to a Sporting CP win, 29% to a draw, and 29% to an Alverca win.