Sporting Cristal 3–2 Alianza Lima — pre-match prediction — Liga 1 — October 29, 2026

← Liga 1

Liga 1 · Clausura - 14 October 29, 2026 21:30 Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima

Sporting Cristal

#1 · 28 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Alianza Lima

#1 · 65 pts

Luis Iberico (ast. Rafael Lutiger) 5'

Hernán Barcos (ast. Cristiano) 45'+1

Santiago González 90'+2

24' (ast. Erick Castillo) Jairo Vélez

42' (ast. Federico Girotti) Erick Castillo

Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting Cristal a 46% win probability (draw 22%, Alianza Lima 31%). The final result was Sporting Cristal 3–2 Alianza Lima. In 1 previous meetings, Sporting Cristal have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Alianza Lima.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.38

Actual xG

1.98

Saves

61%

Possession

39%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Luis Iberico · ast. Rafael Lutiger

24'

ast. Erick Castillo · Jairo Vélez⚽

28'

Cristian Carbajal

Agustín Álvarez

37'

42'

ast. Federico Girotti · Erick Castillo⚽

⚽Hernán Barcos · ast. Cristiano

45'+1

45'

J García / Cristian Carbajal ↕

45'

Kevin Quevedo / Erick Castillo ↕

45'

Jesús Castillo / Jairo Vélez ↕

Luis Iberico

53'

54'

Jesús Castillo

62'

Alan Martín Cantero

67'

Luis Advíncula

↕ Agustín Álvarez / Martín Távara

68'

↕ Luis Iberico / Gabriel

68'

↕ Hernán Barcos / Michael Hoyos

74'

75'

Alan Martín Cantero / Fernando Gaibor ↕

↕ Leandro Sosa / Juan Gonzalez

83'

↕ Maxloren Castro / Juan Manuel Cuesta

83'

86'

Alessandro Burlamaqui / Jesús Castillo ↕

⚽Santiago González

90'+2

Yoshimar Yotún

90'+6

Pre-match prediction

46.13%

Sporting ←

22.28%

31.59%

Alianza

we assigned to the actual result (Sporting Cristal) 46.13% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Sporting

1.83

2.38

+0.55

Alianza

1.42

1.98

+0.55

Sporting Cristal dominated by xG (2.38 vs 1.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Sporting Cristal	14	28
2	Sport Huancayo	14	28
3	Universitario	13	27
4	FBC Melgar	14	26
5	Deportivo Garcilaso	14	25
6	Juan Pablo II College	14	25
7	Alianza Lima	14	25
8	Alianza Atletico	14	25
9	Cusco	14	24
10	Sport Boys	13	21
11	Atletico Grau	14	18
12	Cienciano	14	17
13	Comerciantes Unidos	14	14
14	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	14	12
15	FC Cajamarca	14	11
16	ADT	14	10
17	UCV Moquegua	14	10
18	UTC Cajamarca	14	5

Lineups

Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1

D. Enríquez G 6.72

Cris Silva 1 👟 D 7.11

R. Lutiger 1 👟 D 6.54

M. Araujo D 6.32

L. Sosa 83' D 6.13

Y. Yotún M 6.75

A. Álvarez 68' M 6.24

M. Castro 83' M 6.49

L. Iberico 1 ⚽ 68' M 7.34

S. González 1 ⚽ M 8.14

H. Barcos 1 ⚽ 74' F 8.06

Bench

C. Bautista G 0.00

C. Cabellos M 0.00

Gabriel 22' M 6.58

G. Távara 22' M 6.41

I. Ávila F 0.00

J. Cuesta 7' F 6.61

J. González 7' D 6.28

L. Abram D 0.00

M. Hoyos 16' M 6.03

Alianza Lima 4-1-4-1

A. Duarte G 6.94

C. Carbajal 45' D 5.27

N. Díaz D 6.62

R. Garcés D 5.66

L. Advíncula D 5.82

F. Gaibor 75' M 6.38

J. Vélez 1 ⚽ 45' M 7.14

G. Gentile M 6.30

F. Girotti 1 👟 M 6.72

M. Huamán M 6.22

E. Castillo 1 ⚽ 1 👟 45' F 8.44

Bench

A. Burlamaqui 4' M 5.83

A. Cantero 15' F 6.51

Á. de la Cruz G 0.00

G. Chávez D 0.00

J. Archimbaud M 0.00

J. Castillo 41' M 5.62

J. García 45' D 5.88

K. Quevedo 45' F 6.33

L. Ramos F 0.00

Best on the pitch

E. Castillo

F · Alianza

8.44

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 7 pass

S. González

M · Sporting

8.14

1 ⚽

3 shots · 23 pass

H. Barcos

F · Sporting

8.06

1 ⚽

2 shots · 17 pass

L. Iberico

M · Sporting

7.34

1 ⚽

3 shots · 25 pass

J. Vélez

M · Alianza

7.14

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

Cris Silva

D · Sporting

7.11

1 👟

3 shots · 28 pass

Sporting Cristal — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
D. Enríquez	G	90	6.72	—	—	0	21	18%	0	—	—
Cris Silva	D	90	7.11	—	1	3	28	25%	2	—	—
R. Lutiger	D	90	6.54	—	1	0	41	34%	0	—	—
M. Araujo	D	90	6.32	—	—	0	28	22%	1	—	—
L. Sosa	D	83	6.13	—	—	1	33	28%	0	—	—
Y. Yotún	M	90	6.75	—	—	1	44	38%	3	1	—
A. Álvarez	M	68	6.24	—	—	0	25	23%	2	1	—
M. Castro	M	83	6.49	—	—	3	24	20%	0	—	—
L. Iberico	M	68	7.34	1	—	3	25	21%	0	1	—
S. González	M	90	8.14	1	—	3	23	21%	0	—	—
H. Barcos	F	74	8.06	1	—	2	17	11%	1	—	—
Gabriel	M	22	6.58	—	—	0	21	19%	0	—	—
G. Távara	M	22	6.41	—	—	0	15	11%	2	—	—
J. Cuesta	F	7	6.61	—	—	1	6	5%	0	—	—
J. González	D	7	6.28	—	—	1	7	4%	1	—	—
M. Hoyos	M	16	6.03	—	—	1	6	6%	0	—	—

Alianza Lima — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
A. Duarte	G	90	6.94	—	—	0	22	17%	0	—	—
C. Carbajal	D	45	5.27	—	—	0	8	5%	1	1	—
N. Díaz	D	90	6.62	—	—	0	24	23%	6	—	—
R. Garcés	D	90	5.66	—	—	0	31	22%	1	—	—
L. Advíncula	D	90	5.82	—	—	1	17	16%	2	1	—
F. Gaibor	M	75	6.38	—	—	1	23	20%	2	—	—
J. Vélez	M	45	7.14	1	—	1	12	8%	1	—	—
G. Gentile	M	90	6.30	—	—	2	17	11%	2	—	—
F. Girotti	M	90	6.72	—	1	4	32	21%	0	—	—
M. Huamán	M	90	6.22	—	—	0	13	9%	2	—	—
E. Castillo	F	45	8.44	1	1	4	7	5%	1	—	—
A. Burlamaqui	M	4	5.83	—	—	0	2	2%	0	—	—
A. Cantero	F	15	6.51	—	—	2	4	4%	0	1	—
J. Castillo	M	41	5.62	—	—	0	9	7%	1	1	—
J. García	D	45	5.88	—	—	0	7	4%	1	—	—
K. Quevedo	F	45	6.33	—	—	1	4	2%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

The final score was Sporting Cristal 3–2 Alianza Lima.

What did the model predict before Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

The model assigned 46% probability to a Sporting Cristal win, 22% to a draw, and 31% to an Alianza Lima win.