Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake — pre-match prediction — MLS — October 18, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 30 October 18, 2026 02:30 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City, Kansas

Sporting Kansas City

#15 · 22 pts

1 – 3

Final score

Real Salt Lake

#10 · 39 pts

Taylor Calheira (ast. André Luiz) 26'

11' (ast. Noel Caliskan) Morgan Guilavogui

14' Sergi Solans

61' (ast. Noel Caliskan) Morgan Guilavogui

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sporting Kansas City a 39% win probability (draw 20%, Real Salt Lake 39%). The final result was Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake. In 1 previous meetings, Sporting Kansas City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Real Salt Lake.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.79

Actual xG

1.05

Saves

51%

Possession

49%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

11'

ast. Noel Caliskan · Morgan Guilavogui⚽

14'

Sergi Solans⚽

⚽Taylor Calheira · ast. André Luiz

26'

45'+1

Luc De Fougerolles

61'

ast. Noel Caliskan · Morgan Guilavogui⚽

↕ Stephen Afrifa / Osvaldo Pedro Capemba

61'

↕ Kwaku Agyabeng / Jacob Davis

62'

63'

Chadwick Zachary Booth / Dominik Marczuk ↕

72'

Juan Sanabria

↕ Zorhan Bassong / Ian James

73'

↕ Taylor Calheira / Seymour Garfield-Reid

73'

Calvin Harris

74'

Jacob Bartlett

76'

77'

Aiden Hezarkhani / Saba Lobjanidze ↕

77'

Ariath Piol / Sergi Solans ↕

85'

Sam Junqua / Luc De Fougerolles ↕

85'

Alexandros Katranis / Morgan Guilavogui ↕

↕ Calvin Harris / Ruben Ramos Jr

87'

90'+1

Chadwick Zachary Booth

90'+1

Stijn Spierings

Jansen Miller

90'+2

Pre-match prediction

39.77%

Sporting

20.76%

39.47%

Real ←

we assigned to the actual result (Real Salt Lake) 39.47% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Sporting

1.92

0.79

-1.13

Real

1.93

1.05

-0.88

xG dominance was balanced (0.79 – 1.05). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	54
3	St. Louis City	31	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	48
6	Los Angeles FC	32	47
7	Seattle Sounders	31	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	41
10	Real Salt Lake	31	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	37
12	San Diego	31	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	35
14	Austin	31	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	22

Lineups

Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2

S. Cleveland G 7.00

E. Karić D 6.63

Wyatt Meyer D 6.38

Jansen Miller D 6.03

J. Bartlett D 6.68

C. Harris 87' M 5.57

Z. Bassong 73' M 6.81

K. Agyabeng 62' M 6.36

André Luiz 1 👟 M 6.63

S. Afrifa 61' F 6.20

T. Calheira 1 ⚽ 73' F 7.60

Bench

Capita 29' F 6.29

E. Bartlow D 0.00

I. James 17' D 6.11

J. Davis 28' M 5.74

J. Pulskamp G 0.00

J. Reid D 0.00

M. Suleymanov F 0.00

R. Ramos 3' F 6.30

S. Reid 17' F 6.45

Real Salt Lake 5-4-1

Rafael Cabral G 6.04

J. Sanabria D 7.16

P. Quinton D 6.64

L. De Fougerolles 85' D 6.60

K. Henry D 6.90

D. Marczuk 63' D 6.83

S. Lobzhanidze 77' M 6.25

N. Caliskan 2 👟 M 8.60

S. Spierings M 7.13

M. Guilavogui 2 ⚽ 85' M 9.09

S. Solans 1 ⚽ 77' F 8.03

Bench

A. Hezarkhani 13' F 6.52

A. Katránis 5' D 6.33

A. Piol 13' F 6.43

Chadwick Zachary Booth 27' M 6.11

Colin Guske M 0.00

Dušan Žagar M 0.00

D. Yedlin D 0.00

M. Stajduhar G 0.00

S. Junqua 5' D 6.30

Best on the pitch

M. Guilavogui

M · Real

9.09

2 ⚽

4 shots · 54 pass

N. Caliskan

M · Real

8.60

2 👟

· 64 pass

S. Solans

F · Real

8.03

1 ⚽

1 shots · 18 pass

T. Calheira

F · Sporting

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 17 pass

J. Sanabria

D · Real

7.16

2 shots · 51 pass

S. Spierings

M · Real

7.13

1 shots · 70 pass

Sporting Kansas City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
S. Cleveland	G	90	7.00	—	—	0	23	20%	0	—	—
E. Karić	D	90	6.63	—	—	0	78	70%	1	—	—
Wyatt Meyer	D	90	6.38	—	—	1	70	66%	0	—	—
Jansen Miller	D	90	6.03	—	—	0	61	55%	0	1	—
J. Bartlett	D	90	6.68	—	—	0	61	55%	1	1	—
C. Harris	M	87	5.57	—	—	1	26	21%	0	1	—
Z. Bassong	M	73	6.81	—	—	0	52	47%	2	—	—
K. Agyabeng	M	62	6.36	—	—	0	36	33%	0	—	—
André Luiz	M	90	6.63	—	1	2	31	27%	0	—	—
S. Afrifa	F	61	6.20	—	—	1	16	15%	1	—	—
T. Calheira	F	73	7.60	1	—	2	17	9%	0	—	—
Capita	F	29	6.29	—	—	0	10	10%	0	—	—
I. James	D	17	6.11	—	—	1	14	13%	0	—	—
J. Davis	M	28	5.74	—	—	0	32	25%	0	—	—
R. Ramos	F	3	6.30	—	—	0	4	4%	0	—	—
S. Reid	F	17	6.45	—	—	0	4	3%	0	—	—

Real Salt Lake — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Rafael Cabral	G	90	6.04	—	—	0	30	20%	0	—	—
J. Sanabria	D	90	7.16	—	—	2	51	47%	0	1	—
P. Quinton	D	90	6.64	—	—	0	59	55%	2	—	—
L. De Fougerolles	D	85	6.60	—	—	1	55	49%	1	1	—
K. Henry	D	90	6.90	—	—	1	51	44%	3	—	—
D. Marczuk	D	63	6.83	—	—	1	25	24%	2	—	—
S. Lobzhanidze	M	77	6.25	—	—	2	16	14%	0	—	—
N. Caliskan	M	90	8.60	—	2	0	64	59%	4	—	—
S. Spierings	M	90	7.13	—	—	1	70	64%	1	1	—
M. Guilavogui	M	85	9.09	2	—	4	54	45%	3	—	—
S. Solans	F	77	8.03	1	—	1	18	14%	1	—	—
A. Hezarkhani	F	13	6.52	—	—	0	7	6%	1	—	—
A. Katránis	D	5	6.33	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
A. Piol	F	13	6.43	—	—	0	4	4%	0	—	—
Chadwick Zachary Booth	M	27	6.11	—	—	0	14	11%	2	1	—
S. Junqua	D	5	6.30	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake?

The final score was Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake.

What did the model predict before Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake?

The model assigned 39% probability to a Sporting Kansas City win, 20% to a draw, and 39% to an Real Salt Lake win.