ST Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock — pre-match prediction — Scottish Premiership — August 02, 2026

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Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 1 August 02, 2026 15:00 McDiarmid Park, Perth

ST Johnstone

#6 · 8 pts

4 – 3

Final score

Kilmarnock

#12 · 5 pts

J. Fowler (ast. J. Gullan) 16'

C. Diabate (ast. J. Gullan) 47'

M. Schjonning-Larsen 69' (og)

K. Fotheringham (ast. J. Fowler) 80'

37' (ast. T. Lowery) G. Kiltie

49' J. Hugill

(og) 53' J. Holt

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave ST Johnstone a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Kilmarnock 32%). The final result was ST Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.76

Actual xG

0.69

Saves

56%

Possession

44%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽J. Fowler · ast. J. Gullan

16'

21'

T. John-Jules

37'

ast. T. Lowery · G. Kiltie⚽

45'+2

J. Brandon / T. John-Jules ↕

L. Smith

45'+4

⚽C. Diabate · ast. J. Gullan

47'

49'

J. Hugill⚽

C. Diabate

52'

53'

(og) J. Holt⚽

59'

B. Rice / A. Tshibola ↕

59'

R. Mathurin / N. Clescenco ↕

↕ J. Holt / L. Chalmers

61'

↕ R. Paton / K. Fotheringham

61'

66'

M. O'Hara / E. Ring ↕

↕ R. McAlear / L. Lloyd

69'

⚽M. Schjonning-Larsen (og)

69'

⚽K. Fotheringham · ast. J. Fowler

80'

83'

J. Brandon

↕ J. Fowler / M. Tait

84'

↕ J. Gullan / J. Baird

85'

I. Owen / G. Kiltie ↕

Pre-match prediction

34.54%

ST ←

32.61%

32.85%

Kilmarnock

we assigned to the actual result (ST Johnstone) 34.54% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

3.37

1.76

-1.61

Kilmarnock

0.96

0.69

-0.27

ST Johnstone dominated by xG (1.76 vs 0.69). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Celtic	7	18
2	Rangers	7	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	13
4	Dundee	7	10
5	ST Mirren	7	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	8
7	Aberdeen	7	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	8
9	Motherwell	7	8
10	Hibernian	7	7
11	Falkirk	7	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	5

Lineups

ST Johnstone 4-2-3-1

T. Steward G 6.30

M. Foulds D 6.70

C. Diabate 1 ⚽ D 7.60

Z. Mitchell D 6.70

L. Smith D 6.30

J. Holt 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.00

R. McAlear 69' M 6.30

R. Paton 61' M 6.60

J. Gullan 2 👟 85' M 8.30

S. Stanton M 6.50

J. Fowler 1 ⚽ 1 👟 84' F 8.30

Bench

D. Finlayson D

Jack Baird 9' D 6.60

K. Fotheringham 1 ⚽ 33' F 7.90

L. Chalmers 33' M 6.50

M. Boyes D

M. Tait 10' M 6.50

R. Sinclair G

T. Steven F

Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1

M. Stryjek G 6.70

M. Schjønning-Larsen 1 ⚽ D 5.20

George Stanger D 6.50

E. Brown D 5.90

E. Ring 66' D 6.00

N. Cleșcenco 59' M 6.20

T. Lowery 1 👟 M 6.90

A. Tshibola 59' M 5.90

G. Kiltie 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.20

T. John-Jules 47' F 5.90

J. Hugill 1 ⚽ F 7.60

Bench

B. Rice 35' M 6.60

C. Ferrie G

E. Bowie D

I. Owen 9' F 6.30

J. Brandon 47' D 6.20

J. Yfeko D

M. O'Hara 28' M 6.90

R. McKenzie M

Roshaun Mathurin 35' F 6.30

Best on the pitch

J. Fowler

F · ST

8.30

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 20 pass

J. Gullan

M · ST

8.30

2 👟

3 shots · 36 pass

K. Fotheringham

F · ST

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 14 pass

J. Hugill

F · Kilmarnock

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 9 pass

C. Diabate

D · ST

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 86 pass

G. Kiltie

M · Kilmarnock

7.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 24 pass

ST Johnstone — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
T. Steward	G	94	6.30	—	—	—	43	29%	—	—	—
M. Foulds	D	94	6.70	—	—	—	66	56%	4	—	—
C. Diabate	D	94	7.60	1	—	1	86	81%	—	1	—
Z. Mitchell	D	94	6.70	—	—	—	59	49%	—	—	—
L. Smith	D	94	6.30	—	—	1	39	33%	3	1	—
J. Holt	M	61	7.00	1	—	—	39	37%	1	—	—
R. McAlear	M	69	6.30	—	—	—	49	41%	3	—	—
R. Paton	M	61	6.60	—	—	1	24	20%	1	—	—
J. Gullan	M	85	8.30	—	2	3	36	30%	2	—	—
S. Stanton	M	94	6.50	—	—	2	29	24%	2	—	—
J. Fowler	F	84	8.30	1	1	1	20	17%	—	—	—
Jack Baird	D	9	6.60	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—
K. Fotheringham	F	33	7.90	1	—	2	14	11%	—	—	—
L. Chalmers	M	33	6.50	—	—	1	14	11%	3	—	—
M. Tait	M	10	6.50	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—

Kilmarnock — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Stryjek	G	94	6.70	—	—	—	41	25%	—	—	—
M. Schjønning-Larsen	D	94	5.20	1	—	—	36	30%	—	—	—
George Stanger	D	94	6.50	—	—	1	55	45%	1	—	—
E. Brown	D	94	5.90	—	—	—	50	42%	1	—	—
E. Ring	D	66	6.00	—	—	—	16	12%	2	—	—
N. Cleșcenco	M	59	6.20	—	—	1	13	10%	2	—	—
T. Lowery	M	94	6.90	—	1	—	57	53%	—	—	—
A. Tshibola	M	59	5.90	—	—	—	39	32%	—	—	—
G. Kiltie	M	85	7.20	1	—	2	24	20%	2	—	—
T. John-Jules	F	47	5.90	—	—	—	10	6%	1	1	—
J. Hugill	F	94	7.60	1	—	2	9	8%	—	—	—
B. Rice	M	35	6.60	—	—	1	23	16%	2	—	—
I. Owen	F	9	6.30	—	—	—	2	1%	—	—	—
J. Brandon	D	47	6.20	—	—	—	19	16%	1	1	—
M. O'Hara	M	28	6.90	—	—	—	9	6%	—	—	—
Roshaun Mathurin	F	35	6.30	—	—	—	7	5%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?

The final score was ST Johnstone 4–3 Kilmarnock.

What did the model predict before ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?

The model assigned 34% probability to a ST Johnstone win, 32% to a draw, and 32% to an Kilmarnock win.