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MLS · Regular Season - 15 May 23, 2026 20:45
St. Louis City
#6 · 38 pts
3 – 0
Final score
Austin
#14 · 26 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
Guilherme Biro 40' (og)
F. Fall 57'
D. Edelman (ast. C. Teuchert) 90'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Austin 18%). The final result was St. Louis City 3–0 Austin. In 2 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Austin.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
5
6
Shots on target
2
0.92
Actual xG
0.31
2
Saves
4
47%
Possession
53%
2
Corners
1
16
Tackles
5
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
↕ D. Polvara / L. MacNaughton
23'
⚽Guilherme Biro (og)
40'
⚽F. Fall
57'
61'
B. Vazquez / C. Ramirez ↕
61'
J. Nelson / M. Desler ↕
77'
N. Dubersarsky / D. Pereira ↕
77'
Z. Kolmanic / J. Bell ↕
80'
N. Dubersarsky
81'
C. Fodrey / O. Wolff ↕
C. Durkin
85'
↕ S. Becher / B. McSorley
89'
↕ E. Lowen / C. Teuchert
89'
⚽D. Edelman · ast. C. Teuchert
90'
Pre-match prediction
60.06%
St. ←
21.03%
X
18.9%
Austin
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 60.06% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
2.19
0.92
-1.27
Austin
0.92
0.31
-0.61
St. Louis City dominated by xG (0.92 vs 0.31). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 23 46
2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 24 43
3 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 25 40
4 FC Dallas FC Dallas 24 40
5 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 24 38
6 St. Louis City St. Louis City 24 38
7 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 24 32
8 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 24 32
9 San Diego San Diego 24 30
10 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 23 29
11 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 24 29
12 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 25 29
13 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 22 27
14 Austin Austin 24 26
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 23 15
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-3
39 B. Lundt B. Lundt G 6.60
27 F. Fall F. Fall 1 ⚽ D 8.90
32 T. Baumgartl T. Baumgartl D 7.20
21 D. Polvara D. Polvara 23' D 6.30
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos M 7.00
24 D. Edelman D. Edelman 1 ⚽ M 7.90
8 C. Durkin C. Durkin M 6.90
14 T. Totland T. Totland M 6.60
17 M. Hartel M. Hartel F 7.00
11 S. Becher S. Becher 88' F 6.70
10 E. Löwen E. Löwen 88' F 7.20
Bench
80 Brendan McSorley Brendan McSorley 4' F
36 Cedric Teuchert Cedric Teuchert 1 👟 4' F
34 Colin Welsh Colin Welsh G
22 Kyle Hiebert Kyle Hiebert D
5 L. MacNaughton L. MacNaughton 69' D 6.90
4 M. Fall M. Fall D
59 M. Joyner M. Joyner M
28 M. Perez M. Perez M
Austin Austin 4-1-4-1
1 B. Stuver B. Stuver G 5.90
29 Guilherme Biro Guilherme Biro 1 ⚽ D 6.70
15 J. Bell J. Bell 76' D 6.00
5 O. Svatok O. Svatok D 6.30
3 M. Desler M. Desler 60' D 6.50
8 Daniel Pereira Daniel Pereira 76' M 6.20
17 J. Gallagher J. Gallagher M 6.20
33 Owen Wolff Owen Wolff 80' M 6.20
30 J. Rosales J. Rosales M 6.90
11 F. Torres F. Torres M 6.90
21 C. Ramirez C. Ramirez 60' F 6.20
Bench
14 B. Šabović B. Šabović M
9 B. Vázquez B. Vázquez 32' F 6.20
19 C. Fodrey C. Fodrey 12' M 6.20
12 D. Las D. Las G
6 Ilie Sánchez Ilie Sánchez M
7 J. Nelson J. Nelson 32' F 6.60
35 M. Đorđević M. Đorđević D
20 Nicolas Dubersarsky Nicolas Dubersarsky 16' M 6.30
23 Ž. Kolmanič Ž. Kolmanič 16' D 6.20
Best on the pitch
F. Fall
F. Fall
D · St.
8.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 43 pass
D. Edelman
D. Edelman
M · St.
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 42 pass
T. Baumgartl
T. Baumgartl
D · St.
7.20
· 73 pass
E. Löwen
E. Löwen
F · St.
7.20
3 shots · 47 pass
Rafael Santos
Rafael Santos
M · St.
7.00
2 shots · 19 pass
M. Hartel
M. Hartel
F · St.
7.00
2 shots · 41 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Lundt G 92 6.60 — — — 24 19% — — —
F. Fall D 92 8.90 1 — 1 43 34% 6 — —
T. Baumgartl D 92 7.20 — — — 73 68% 3 — —
D. Polvara D 23 6.30 — — — 25 21% — — —
Rafael Santos M 92 7.00 — — 2 19 13% 1 — —
D. Edelman M 92 7.90 1 — 2 42 35% 1 — —
C. Durkin M 92 6.90 — — 1 42 35% — 1 —
T. Totland M 92 6.60 — — — 31 26% — — —
M. Hartel F 92 7.00 — — 2 41 35% 1 — —
S. Becher F 88 6.70 — — — 13 8% — — —
E. Löwen F 88 7.20 — — 3 47 40% 3 — —
Brendan McSorley F 4 — — — — — — — — —
Cedric Teuchert F 4 — — 1 — 2 1% — — —
L. MacNaughton D 69 6.90 — — — 42 40% 1 — —
Austin Austin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Stuver G 92 5.90 — — — 27 22% — — —
Guilherme Biro D 92 6.70 1 — 1 75 65% — — —
J. Bell D 76 6.00 — — 1 29 24% 1 — —
O. Svatok D 92 6.30 — — 1 54 49% — — —
M. Desler D 60 6.50 — — — 34 32% — — —
Daniel Pereira M 76 6.20 — — — 67 61% 1 — —
J. Gallagher M 92 6.20 — — — 24 21% — — —
Owen Wolff M 80 6.20 — — — 46 38% — — —
J. Rosales M 92 6.90 — — 1 48 40% 1 — —
F. Torres M 92 6.90 — — 1 50 42% — — —
C. Ramirez F 60 6.20 — — — 9 6% 1 — —
B. Vázquez F 32 6.20 — — — 8 5% 1 — —
C. Fodrey M 12 6.20 — — — 1 1% — — —
J. Nelson F 32 6.60 — — — 12 10% — — —
Nicolas Dubersarsky M 16 6.30 — — — 12 11% — 1 —
Ž. Kolmanič D 16 6.20 — — — 11 10% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Austin?
The final score was St. Louis City 3–0 Austin.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Austin?
The model assigned 60% probability to a St. Louis City win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Austin win.