St. Louis City 3–3 FC Dallas — pre-match prediction — MLS — August 31, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 22 August 31, 2026 01:00

St. Louis City

#3 · 51 pts

3 – 3

Final score

FC Dallas

#2 · 54 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction St. Louis City, result Draw

S. Becher 3'

D. Edelman 43'

C. Holse (ast. C. Wallem) 64'

18' S. Moore

81' (ast. J. Valiente) S. Ibeagha

90'+7 (ast. P. Musa) L. Farrington

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 65% win probability (draw 19%, FC Dallas 14%). The final result was St. Louis City 3–3 FC Dallas. In 1 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC Dallas.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.16

Actual xG

0.06

Saves

52%

Possession

48%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽S. Becher

13'

Ramiro

18'

S. Moore⚽

⚽D. Edelman

43'

↕ A. Matan / C. Holse

59'

C. Cappis / H. Johansson ↕

59'

R. Binyamin / S. Moreno ↕

⚽C. Holse · ast. C. Wallem

64'

68'

L. Farrington / Ramiro ↕

69'

N. Norris / B. Kamungo ↕

↕ S. Jeong / Z. Zengue

72'

81'

ast. J. Valiente · S. Ibeagha⚽

↕ J. Orozco / L. MacNaughton

88'

89'

P. Musa

89'

S. Sarver / Kaick ↕

90'+7

ast. P. Musa · L. Farrington⚽

L. MacNaughton

90'+7

Pre-match prediction

65.83%

St.

19.39%

X ←

14.78%

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 19.39% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

St.

2.01

0.16

-1.85

0.68

0.06

-0.62

xG dominance was balanced (0.16 – 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	54
3	St. Louis City	31	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	48
6	Los Angeles FC	32	47
7	Seattle Sounders	31	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	41
10	Real Salt Lake	31	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	37
12	San Diego	31	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	35
14	Austin	31	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	22

Lineups

St. Louis City 3-4-2-1

R. Bürki 20' G 6.30

D. Polvara 20' D 6.20

T. Baumgartl 20' D 6.20

J. Orozco 20' D 6.30

T. Totland 20' M 6.60

C. Durkin 20' M 6.30

D. Edelman 1 ⚽ 20' M 6.30

C. Wallem 1 👟 20' M 6.30

A. Mățan 20' F 6.50

Jeong Sang-Bin 20' F 6.60

S. Becher 1 ⚽ 20' F 7.50

Bench

B. Lundt G

C. Holse 1 ⚽ F

L. MacNaughton D

M. Fall D

M. Joyner M

M. Perez M

Rafael Santos D

Tahir Reid-Brown D

Zach Zengue M

FC Dallas 3-4-2-1

J. Sirois 20' G 6.30

S. Moore 1 ⚽ 20' D 7.30

O. Urhoghide 20' D 6.90

S. Ibeagha 1 ⚽ 20' D 6.20

B. Kamungo 20' M 6.70

Kaick 20' M 6.50

Ramiro 20' M 6.20

H. Johansson 20' M 6.70

S. Moreno 20' F 6.30

J. Valiente 1 👟 20' F 6.30

P. Musa 1 👟 20' F 6.60

Bench

C. Cappis M

Clay Holstad M

Joshua Torquato D

L. Abubakar D

L. Farrington 1 ⚽ F

Michael Collodi G

N. Norris D

R. Binyamin M

Samuel Sarver F

Best on the pitch

S. Becher

F · St.

7.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 4 pass

S. Moore

D · FC

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

O. Urhoghide

D · FC

6.90

· 9 pass

H. Johansson

M · FC

6.70

· 4 pass

B. Kamungo

M · FC

6.70

· 8 pass

P. Musa

F · FC

6.60

1 👟

· 6 pass

St. Louis City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
R. Bürki	G	20	6.30	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—
D. Polvara	D	20	6.20	—	—	—	5	4%	1	—	—
T. Baumgartl	D	20	6.20	—	—	—	11	10%	—	—	—
J. Orozco	D	20	6.30	—	—	—	18	18%	—	—	—
T. Totland	M	20	6.60	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
C. Durkin	M	20	6.30	—	—	—	11	8%	—	—	—
D. Edelman	M	20	6.30	1	—	—	12	9%	—	—	—
C. Wallem	M	20	6.30	—	1	—	13	10%	1	—	—
A. Mățan	F	20	6.50	—	—	—	6	5%	—	—	—
Jeong Sang-Bin	F	20	6.60	—	—	—	9	5%	—	—	—
S. Becher	F	20	7.50	1	—	1	4	4%	—	—	—

FC Dallas — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Sirois	G	20	6.30	—	—	—	8	5%	—	—	—
S. Moore	D	20	7.30	1	—	1	12	11%	—	—	—
O. Urhoghide	D	20	6.90	—	—	—	9	5%	1	—	—
S. Ibeagha	D	20	6.20	1	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
B. Kamungo	M	20	6.70	—	—	—	8	5%	—	—	—
Kaick	M	20	6.50	—	—	—	12	11%	—	—	—
Ramiro	M	20	6.20	—	—	—	16	13%	—	1	—
H. Johansson	M	20	6.70	—	—	—	4	4%	1	—	—
S. Moreno	F	20	6.30	—	—	—	10	9%	—	—	—
J. Valiente	F	20	6.30	—	1	—	9	7%	—	—	—
P. Musa	F	20	6.60	—	1	—	6	5%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs FC Dallas?

The final score was St. Louis City 3–3 FC Dallas.

What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs FC Dallas?

The model assigned 65% probability to a St. Louis City win, 19% to a draw, and 14% to an FC Dallas win.