St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy — pre-match prediction — MLS — October 12, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 28 October 12, 2026 01:00 Citypark, Saint Louis

St. Louis City

#3 · 51 pts

6 – 2

Final score

Los Angeles Galaxy

#9 · 41 pts

✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City

Carlo Holse (ast. Rafael Navarro Leal) 2'

Carlo Holse (ast. Rafael Navarro Leal) 7'

Carlo Holse (ast. Christopher Durkin) 21'

Lukas MacNaughton (ast. Alexandru Măţan) 45'+7

Rafael Navarro Leal 45' (pen.)

Rafael Navarro Leal (ast. Christopher Durkin) 53'

31' (ast. Erik Thommy) Robert Taylor

71' (ast. Marco Reus) Klauss

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 80% win probability (draw 10%, Los Angeles Galaxy 9%). The final result was St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy. In 2 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Los Angeles Galaxy.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.69

Actual xG

2.01

Saves

59%

Possession

41%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Carlo Holse · ast. Rafael Navarro Leal

11'

Klauss / Kyogo Furuhashi ↕

⚽Carlo Holse · ast. Christopher Durkin

21'

31'

ast. Erik Thommy · Robert Taylor⚽

Christopher Durkin

39'

⚽Lukas MacNaughton · ast. Alexandru Măţan

45'+7

⚽Rafael Navarro Leal (pen.)

45'

Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole / Sergi Roberto ↕

⚽Rafael Navarro Leal · ast. Christopher Durkin

53'

60'

Marco Reus / Pablo Ruiz ↕

60'

Joseph Paintsil / Robert Taylor ↕

Conrad Wallem

63'

67'

Bernardi Julian Ezequiel Aude

71'

ast. Marco Reus · Klauss⚽

↕ Christopher Durkin / Fallou Fall

72'

74'

Harbor Miller

75'

Carlos Emiro Garces Torres / Erik Thommy ↕

↕ Rafael Navarro Leal / Simon Becher

80'

↕ Carlo Holse / Sang-bin Jung

80'

↕ Conrad Wallem / Jaziel Alberto Orozco Landeros

80'

↕ Alexandru Măţan / Damion Downs

90'+1

Pre-match prediction

80.09%

St. ←

10.56%

9.35%

Los

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 80.09% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

St.

4.50

2.69

-1.81

Los

1.36

2.01

+0.65

St. Louis City dominated by xG (2.69 vs 2.01). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	54
3	St. Louis City	31	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	48
6	Los Angeles FC	32	47
7	Seattle Sounders	31	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	32	41
10	Real Salt Lake	31	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	37
12	San Diego	31	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	35
14	Austin	31	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	22

Lineups

St. Louis City 3-4-3

R. Bürki G 7.35

D. Polvara D 6.58

T. Baumgartl D 6.58

L. MacNaughton 1 ⚽ D 7.39

T. Totland M 6.49

C. Durkin 2 👟 72' M 7.73

D. Edelman M 6.17

C. Wallem 80' M 6.35

A. Mățan 1 👟 89' F 7.02

Rafael Navarro 2 ⚽ 2 👟 80' F 9.52

C. Holse 3 ⚽ 80' F 9.76

Bench

B. Lundt G 0.00

D. Downs 1' F 0.00

F. Fall 18' D 6.14

Jeong Sang-Bin 10' F 6.52

J. Orozco 10' D 6.11

M. Perez M 0.00

Rafael Santos D 0.00

S. Becher 10' F 6.42

T. Ostrák M 0.00

Los Angeles Galaxy 4-3-3

J. Marcinkowski G 5.42

J. Aude D 5.46

J. Haak D 6.35

J. Glesnes D 5.99

Harbor Miller D 5.18

Sergi Roberto 45' M 6.10

E. Thommy 1 👟 75' M 6.81

P. Ruiz 60' M 6.40

R. Taylor 1 ⚽ 60' F 7.77

K. Furuhashi 11' F 6.50

T. Elgersma F 6.61

Bench

Calegari D 0.00

C. Garcés 15' D 5.72

J. Nelson D 0.00

J. Paintsil 30' F 6.32

L. Sanabria 45' M 5.84

M. Reus 1 👟 30' M 6.39

M. Yoshida D 0.00

N. Mićović G 0.00

Best on the pitch

C. Holse

F · St.

9.76

3 ⚽

4 shots · 53 pass

Rafael Navarro

F · St.

9.52

2 ⚽ 2 👟

2 shots · 31 pass

R. Taylor

F · Los

7.77

1 ⚽

4 shots · 19 pass

C. Durkin

M · St.

7.73

2 👟

· 66 pass

L. MacNaughton

D · St.

7.39

1 ⚽

1 shots · 72 pass

R. Bürki

G · St.

7.35

· 24 pass

St. Louis City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
R. Bürki	G	90	7.35	—	—	0	24	22%	0	—	—
D. Polvara	D	90	6.58	—	—	0	76	68%	2	—	—
T. Baumgartl	D	90	6.58	—	—	0	75	71%	1	—	—
L. MacNaughton	D	90	7.39	1	—	1	72	67%	2	—	—
T. Totland	M	90	6.49	—	—	2	41	33%	3	—	—
C. Durkin	M	72	7.73	—	2	0	66	57%	2	1	—
D. Edelman	M	90	6.17	—	—	0	60	55%	1	—	—
C. Wallem	M	80	6.35	—	—	0	35	32%	3	1	—
A. Mățan	F	89	7.02	—	1	2	53	48%	1	—	—
Rafael Navarro	F	80	9.52	2	2	2	31	25%	2	—	—
C. Holse	F	80	9.76	3	—	4	53	46%	2	—	—
D. Downs	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
F. Fall	D	18	6.14	—	—	0	16	15%	0	—	—
Jeong Sang-Bin	F	10	6.52	—	—	0	2	1%	0	—	—
J. Orozco	D	10	6.11	—	—	0	5	5%	0	—	—
S. Becher	F	10	6.42	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—

Los Angeles Galaxy — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Marcinkowski	G	90	5.42	—	—	0	26	16%	0	—	—
J. Aude	D	90	5.46	—	—	0	41	35%	2	1	—
J. Haak	D	90	6.35	—	—	2	42	39%	4	—	—
J. Glesnes	D	90	5.99	—	—	0	44	38%	1	—	—
Harbor Miller	D	90	5.18	—	—	1	24	18%	1	1	—
Sergi Roberto	M	45	6.10	—	—	0	29	25%	0	—	—
E. Thommy	M	75	6.81	—	1	0	25	20%	0	—	—
P. Ruiz	M	60	6.40	—	—	0	29	24%	1	—	—
R. Taylor	F	60	7.77	1	—	4	19	13%	0	—	—
K. Furuhashi	F	11	6.50	—	—	0	3	3%	0	—	—
T. Elgersma	F	90	6.61	—	—	1	31	27%	1	—	—
C. Garcés	D	15	5.72	—	—	0	13	13%	2	—	—
J. Paintsil	F	30	6.32	—	—	1	14	12%	0	—	—
L. Sanabria	M	45	5.84	—	—	0	27	19%	2	—	—
M. Reus	M	30	6.39	—	1	4	20	16%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

The final score was St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy.

What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy?

The model assigned 80% probability to a St. Louis City win, 10% to a draw, and 9% to an Los Angeles Galaxy win.