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MLS · Regular Season - 25 September 13, 2026 02:30
St. Louis City
#3 · 54 pts
4 – 2
Final score
Minnesota United FC
#10 · 44 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
Daniel Edelman 18'
Carlo Holse (ast. Conrad Wallem) 22'
Rafael Navarro Leal (ast. Carlo Holse) 38'
Rafael Navarro Leal 57' (pen.)
5' (ast. Joaquín Pereyra) Tomás Chancalay
(pen.) 61' Kelvin Yeboah
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 64% win probability (draw 17%, Minnesota United FC 17%). The final result was St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FC. In 1 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Minnesota United FC.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
11
8
Shots on target
3
1
Saves
4
65%
Possession
35%
6
Corners
5
20
Tackles
15
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
5'
ast. Joaquín Pereyra · Tomás Chancalay⚽
⚽Daniel Edelman
18'
⚽Carlo Holse · ast. Conrad Wallem
22'
⚽Rafael Navarro Leal · ast. Carlo Holse
38'
47'
Michael Boxall
⚽Rafael Navarro Leal (pen.)
57'
↕ Rafael Santos / Tomas Totland
59'
↕ Daniel Edelman / Christopher Durkin
59'
↕ Carlo Holse / Alexandru Măţan
59'
61'
(pen.) Kelvin Yeboah⚽
64'
Kyle Duncan
75'
Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño / Nicolás Romero ↕
75'
Maurice Malone / Kelvin Yeboah ↕
75'
Nectarios Triantis / Wil Trapp ↕
↕ Simon Becher / Damion Downs
76'
↕ Fallou Fall / Lukas MacNaughton
76'
80'
Kyle Duncan
83'
Aziel Jackson / Tomás Chancalay ↕
Pre-match prediction
64.7%
St. ←
17.55%
X
17.75%
Minnesota
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 64.7% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
2.57
—
—
Minnesota
1.11
—
—
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 34 64
2 FC Dallas FC Dallas 34 58
3 St. Louis City St. Louis City 34 54
4 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 34 52
5 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 34 51
6 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 34 47
7 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 34 46
8 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 34 46
9 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 34 45
10 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 34 44
11 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 34 44
12 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 34 43
13 San Diego San Diego 34 38
14 Austin Austin 34 34
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 34 26
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-1-2
1 R. Bürki R. Bürki G 5.97
27 F. Fall F. Fall 76' D 7.02
32 T. Baumgartl T. Baumgartl D 6.61
99 J. Orozco J. Orozco D 7.03
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos 59' M 6.44
21 D. Polvara D. Polvara M 6.26
24 D. Edelman D. Edelman 1 ⚽ 59' M 7.92
6 C. Wallem C. Wallem 1 👟 M 7.11
19 C. Holse C. Holse 1 ⚽ 1 👟 59' M 8.46
9 Rafael Navarro Rafael Navarro 2 ⚽ F 8.20
11 S. Becher S. Becher 76' F 6.45
Bench
23 A. Mățan A. Mățan 31' M 6.28
39 B. Lundt B. Lundt G 0.00
8 C. Durkin C. Durkin 31' M 6.58
42 D. Downs D. Downs 14' F 6.48
77 Jeong Sang-Bin Jeong Sang-Bin F 0.00
5 L. MacNaughton L. MacNaughton 14' D 6.11
4 M. Fall M. Fall D 0.00
7 T. Ostrák T. Ostrák M 0.00
14 T. Totland T. Totland 31' D 6.09
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 3-4-3
12 D. Callender D. Callender G 5.90
5 N. Romero N. Romero 75' D 5.66
15 M. Boxall M. Boxall D 5.48
67 C. Harvey C. Harvey D 6.31
13 A. Markanich A. Markanich M 6.74
20 W. Trapp W. Trapp 75' M 6.02
30 O. Gene O. Gene M 6.24
3 K. Duncan K. Duncan 80' M 4.72
8 T. Chancalay T. Chancalay 1 ⚽ 83' F 7.43
9 K. Yeboah K. Yeboah 1 ⚽ 75' F 6.84
26 J. Pereyra J. Pereyra 1 👟 F 6.92
Bench
16 A. Jackson A. Jackson 7' M 5.77
1 A. Smir A. Smir G 0.00
27 D. Taylor D. Taylor D 0.00
28 J. Díaz J. Díaz 15' D 5.86
33 K. Chandler K. Chandler D 0.00
22 Marcus Caldeira Marcus Caldeira F 0.00
18 M. Gonzalez M. Gonzalez F 0.00
11 M. Malone M. Malone 15' F 6.13
25 N. Triantis N. Triantis 15' D 5.70
Best on the pitch
C. Holse
C. Holse
M · St.
8.46
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 35 pass
Rafael Navarro
Rafael Navarro
F · St.
8.20
2 ⚽
3 shots · 26 pass
D. Edelman
D. Edelman
M · St.
7.92
1 ⚽
1 shots · 39 pass
T. Chancalay
T. Chancalay
F · Minnesota
7.43
1 ⚽
1 shots · 32 pass
C. Wallem
C. Wallem
M · St.
7.11
1 👟
2 shots · 40 pass
J. Orozco
J. Orozco
D · St.
7.03
· 75 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Bürki G 90 5.97 — — 0 35 26% 0 — —
F. Fall D 76 7.02 — — 0 67 60% 4 — —
T. Baumgartl D 90 6.61 — — 0 116 109% 1 — —
J. Orozco D 90 7.03 — — 0 75 70% 5 — —
Rafael Santos M 59 6.44 — — 3 21 18% 1 — —
D. Polvara M 90 6.26 — — 0 53 51% 1 — —
D. Edelman M 59 7.92 1 — 1 39 36% 0 — —
C. Wallem M 90 7.11 — 1 2 40 35% 1 — —
C. Holse M 59 8.46 1 1 2 35 30% 0 — —
Rafael Navarro F 90 8.20 2 — 3 26 22% 4 — —
S. Becher F 76 6.45 — — 2 13 9% 0 — —
A. Mățan M 31 6.28 — — 1 19 16% 1 — —
C. Durkin M 31 6.58 — — 0 28 27% 1 — —
D. Downs F 14 6.48 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
L. MacNaughton D 14 6.11 — — 0 17 15% 1 — —
T. Totland D 31 6.09 — — 0 11 10% 0 — —
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
D. Callender G 90 5.90 — — 0 28 16% 0 — —
N. Romero D 75 5.66 — — 0 14 12% 0 — —
M. Boxall D 90 5.48 — — 0 25 21% 0 1 —
C. Harvey D 90 6.31 — — 2 21 18% 2 — —
A. Markanich M 90 6.74 — — 2 19 16% 5 — —
W. Trapp M 75 6.02 — — 0 38 31% 1 — —
O. Gene M 90 6.24 — — 0 44 37% 1 — —
K. Duncan M 80 4.72 — — 0 19 14% 4 — 1
T. Chancalay F 83 7.43 1 — 1 32 25% 0 — —
K. Yeboah F 75 6.84 1 — 3 16 10% 0 — —
J. Pereyra F 90 6.92 — 1 1 38 27% 2 — —
A. Jackson M 7 5.77 — — 1 6 6% 0 — —
J. Díaz D 15 5.86 — — 0 10 10% 0 — —
M. Malone F 15 6.13 — — 1 6 6% 0 — —
N. Triantis D 15 5.70 — — 0 12 12% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?
The final score was St. Louis City 4–2 Minnesota United FC.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Minnesota United FC?
The model assigned 64% probability to a St. Louis City win, 17% to a draw, and 17% to an Minnesota United FC win.