MLS
· Regular Season - 18
August 02, 2026 02:30
✗Model wrong — prediction St. Louis City, result Draw
M. Hartel
73'
60'
(ast. S. Lobjanidze)
S. Solans
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 60% win probability (draw 21%, Real Salt Lake 18%). The final result was St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt Lake.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
5
4
Shots on target
3
1.71
Actual xG
1.24
2
Saves
3
67%
Possession
33%
9
Corners
4
11
Tackles
13
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
6'
Z. Booth
E. Lowen
28'
29'
P. Quinton
40'
D. Yedlin
C. Durkin
43'
45'+1
S. Spierings
/
G. Dillon
46'
S. Lobjanidze
/
Lineker Rodrigues
60'
ast. S. Lobjanidze ·
S. Solans⚽
E. Lowen
/ M. Hartel
65'
C. Durkin
/ A. Matan
65'
⚽M. Hartel
73'
78'
V. Olatunji
/
D. Luna
S. Jeong
80'
S. Jeong
/ T. Ostrak
84'
90'+1
A. Hezarkhani
/
S. Solans
90'+1
D. Marczuk
/
Z. Booth
S. Becher
/ P. Ault
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
60.0%
St.
21.19%
X ←
18.81%
Real
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
21.19%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.87
1.71
-0.16
0.80
1.24
+0.44
St. Louis City dominated by xG (1.71 vs 1.24).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
R. Bürki
G
R. Bürki
G
21
D. Polvara
D
D. Polvara
D
32
T. Baumgartl
D
T. Baumgartl
D
5
L. MacNaughton
D
L. MacNaughton
D
14
T. Totland
M
T. Totland
M
8
C. Durkin
65'
M
C. Durkin
65'
M
24
D. Edelman
M
D. Edelman
M
6
C. Wallem
M
C. Wallem
M
10
E. Löwen
65'
F
E. Löwen
65'
F
77
Jeong Sang-Bin
84'
F
Jeong Sang-Bin
84'
F
11
S. Becher
F
S. Becher
F
Bench
23
A. Mățan
30'
M
A. Mățan
30'
M
39
B. Lundt
G
B. Lundt
G
27
F. Fall
D
F. Fall
D
17
M. Hartel
1 ⚽
30'
M
M. Hartel
1 ⚽
30'
M
59
M. Joyner
M
M. Joyner
M
28
M. Perez
M
M. Perez
M
29
Palmer Ault
3'
M
Palmer Ault
3'
M
20
Rafael Santos
D
Rafael Santos
D
7
T. Ostrák
11'
M
T. Ostrák
11'
M
1
Rafael Cabral
G
Rafael Cabral
G
29
Sam Junqua
D
Sam Junqua
D
26
P. Quinton
D
P. Quinton
D
2
D. Yedlin
D
D. Yedlin
D
8
J. Sanabria
M
J. Sanabria
M
92
N. Caliskan
M
N. Caliskan
M
27
Griffin Dillon
46'
M
Griffin Dillon
46'
M
23
Zach Booth
M
Zach Booth
M
10
D. Luna
78'
F
D. Luna
78'
F
22
S. Solans
1 ⚽
F
S. Solans
1 ⚽
F
70
Lineker Rodrigues
45'
F
Lineker Rodrigues
45'
F
Bench
39
A. Hezarkhani
4'
F
A. Hezarkhani
4'
F
98
A. Katránis
D
A. Katránis
D
11
Dominik Marczuk
4'
F
Dominik Marczuk
4'
F
21
J. Arias
D
J. Arias
D
4
L. Engel
D
L. Engel
D
31
M. Stajduhar
G
M. Stajduhar
G
12
S. Lobzhanidze
1 👟
50'
M
S. Lobzhanidze
1 👟
50'
M
6
Stijn Spierings
49'
M
Stijn Spierings
49'
M
17
Victor Olatunji
17'
F
Victor Olatunji
17'
F
Best on the pitch
Sam Junqua
D · Real
7.90
1 shots
· 36 pass
A. Mățan
M · St.
7.70
1 shots
· 20 pass
E. Löwen
F · St.
7.70
1 shots
· 67 pass
T. Baumgartl
D · St.
7.50
· 80 pass
R. Bürki
G · St.
7.30
· 16 pass
M. Hartel
M · St.
7.30
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 11 pass
St. Louis City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Bürki | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| D. Polvara | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 86 | 80% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Baumgartl | D | 95 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 80 | 78% | 2 | — | — |
| L. MacNaughton | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 87 | 78% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Totland | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 43 | 40% | — | — | — |
| C. Durkin | M | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 50 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| D. Edelman | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 67 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Wallem | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Löwen | F | 65 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 58% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jeong Sang-Bin | F | 84 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Becher | F | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 16% | — | — | — |
| A. Mățan | M | 30 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| M. Hartel | M | 30 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 4 | 11 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Palmer Ault | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Ostrák | M | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Real Salt Lake — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Cabral | G | 95 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Sam Junqua | D | 95 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 32% | 3 | — | — |
| P. Quinton | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Yedlin | D | 95 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 26% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Sanabria | M | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 29 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Caliskan | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Griffin Dillon | M | 46 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Zach Booth | M | 91 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Luna | F | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 12% | — | — | — |
| S. Solans | F | 91 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Lineker Rodrigues | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Hezarkhani | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominik Marczuk | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lobzhanidze | M | 50 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Stijn Spierings | M | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Victor Olatunji | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake?
The final score was St. Louis City 1–1 Real Salt Lake.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Real Salt Lake?
The model assigned 60% probability to a St. Louis City win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Real Salt Lake win.