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MLS · Regular Season - 16 July 17, 2026 02:30
St. Louis City
#4 · 51 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Sporting Kansas City
#15 · 23 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
S. Jeong 28'
M. Hartel (ast. S. Becher) 36'
E. Lowen 85' (pen.)
42' Capita
76' (ast. M. Garcia) D. Joveljic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 67% win probability (draw 17%, Sporting Kansas City 15%). The final result was St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas City. In 1 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Sporting Kansas City.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
3
2.51
Actual xG
0.98
1
Saves
3
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
6
15
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. Jeong
28'
⚽M. Hartel · ast. S. Becher
36'
42'
Capita⚽
↕ C. Wallem / Rafael Santos
46'
46'
J. Davis / I. James ↕
46'
E. Karic / J. Reid ↕
↕ S. Jeong / M. Perez
64'
75'
E. Bartlow / O. Blorian ↕
76'
ast. M. Garcia · D. Joveljic⚽
76'
K. Agyabeng / Z. Bassong ↕
78'
Capita
85'
S. Afrifa / Capita ↕
⚽E. Lowen (pen.)
85'
↕ T. Totland / J. Orozco
88'
↕ E. Lowen / T. Ostrak
88'
↕ S. Becher / P. Ault
90'+6
D. Edelman
90'+7
B. Lundt
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.07%
St. ←
17.79%
X
15.14%
Sporting
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 67.07% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
2.41
2.51
+0.1
Sporting
0.84
0.98
+0.14
St. Louis City dominated by xG (2.51 vs 0.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 33 61
2 FC Dallas FC Dallas 33 55
3 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 33 52
4 St. Louis City St. Louis City 33 51
5 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 33 51
6 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 33 47
7 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 33 44
8 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 33 43
9 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 33 43
10 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 33 43
11 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 33 42
12 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 33 41
13 San Diego San Diego 33 38
14 Austin Austin 33 34
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 33 23
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-3
39 B. Lundt B. Lundt G 6.00
21 D. Polvara D. Polvara D 7.70
32 T. Baumgartl T. Baumgartl D 7.00
5 L. MacNaughton L. MacNaughton D 6.60
14 T. Totland T. Totland 88' M 6.90
24 D. Edelman D. Edelman M 7.20
10 E. Löwen E. Löwen 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.20
6 C. Wallem C. Wallem 45' M 6.00
17 M. Hartel M. Hartel 1 ⚽ F 8.30
11 S. Becher S. Becher 1 👟 F 6.90
77 Jeong Sang-Bin Jeong Sang-Bin 1 ⚽ 64' F 8.00
Bench
31 C. Olivares C. Olivares G
27 F. Fall F. Fall D
99 J. Orozco J. Orozco 11' D 6.30
22 Kyle Hiebert Kyle Hiebert D
59 M. Joyner M. Joyner M
28 M. Perez M. Perez 35' M 6.20
29 Palmer Ault Palmer Ault 3' M
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos 54' D 6.50
7 T. Ostrák T. Ostrák 11' M 6.60
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 4-2-3-1
30 S. Cleveland S. Cleveland G 7.00
99 J. Reid J. Reid 45' D 6.30
5 O. Blorian O. Blorian 75' D 6.30
15 Jansen Miller Jansen Miller D 5.90
2 I. James I. James 45' D 6.00
22 Z. Bassong Z. Bassong 76' M 7.20
4 L. Johnsen L. Johnsen M 6.60
11 C. Harris C. Harris M 6.50
6 Manu García Manu García 1 👟 M 7.20
7 Capita Capita 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.20
9 D. Joveljić D. Joveljić 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
23 E. Bartlow E. Bartlow 24' D 6.70
18 E. Karić E. Karić 54' D 6.60
16 J. Bartlett J. Bartlett D
8 J. Davis J. Davis 54' M 6.60
1 J. Pulskamp J. Pulskamp G
20 K. Agyabeng K. Agyabeng 23' M 6.60
93 M. Suleymanov M. Suleymanov F
14
M. Tschantret M
17 S. Afrifa S. Afrifa 14' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
M. Hartel
M. Hartel
F · St.
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 35 pass
Jeong Sang-Bin
Jeong Sang-Bin
F · St.
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 17 pass
D. Polvara
D. Polvara
D · St.
7.70
· 65 pass
D. Joveljić
D. Joveljić
F · Sporting
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 16 pass
D. Edelman
D. Edelman
M · St.
7.20
· 66 pass
E. Löwen
E. Löwen
M · St.
7.20
1 ⚽
4 shots · 46 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Lundt G 99 6.00 — — — 23 15% — 1 —
D. Polvara D 99 7.70 — — — 65 56% 5 — —
T. Baumgartl D 99 7.00 — — — 63 61% 2 — —
L. MacNaughton D 99 6.60 — — 1 65 56% 3 — —
T. Totland M 88 6.90 — — 1 26 21% — — —
D. Edelman M 99 7.20 — — — 66 58% 1 1 —
E. Löwen M 88 7.20 1 — 4 46 42% — — —
C. Wallem M 45 6.00 — — — 28 24% — — —
M. Hartel F 99 8.30 1 — 3 35 26% — — —
S. Becher F 96 6.90 — 1 3 20 15% — — —
Jeong Sang-Bin F 64 8.00 1 — 2 17 15% 1 — —
J. Orozco D 11 6.30 — — — 4 1% 1 — —
M. Perez M 35 6.20 — — — 12 9% 1 — —
Palmer Ault M 3 — — — — — — — — —
Rafael Santos D 54 6.50 — — — 11 11% — — —
T. Ostrák M 11 6.60 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Cleveland G 99 7.00 — — — 25 17% — — —
J. Reid D 45 6.30 — — — 20 16% 4 — —
O. Blorian D 75 6.30 — — — 30 22% 1 — —
Jansen Miller D 99 5.90 — — — 30 25% 1 — —
I. James D 45 6.00 — — — 22 18% — — —
Z. Bassong M 76 7.20 — — — 40 33% 2 — —
L. Johnsen M 99 6.60 — — — 69 61% 1 — —
C. Harris M 99 6.50 — — 1 26 18% 2 — —
Manu García M 99 7.20 — 1 — 37 27% 2 — —
Capita M 85 7.20 1 — 2 13 11% 1 1 —
D. Joveljić F 99 7.30 1 — 2 16 13% — — —
E. Bartlow D 24 6.70 — — — 6 6% 2 — —
E. Karić D 54 6.60 — — — 23 19% 2 — —
J. Davis M 54 6.60 — — 2 35 29% 2 — —
K. Agyabeng M 23 6.60 — — — 17 14% 1 — —
S. Afrifa F 14 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
The final score was St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas City.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
The model assigned 67% probability to a St. Louis City win, 17% to a draw, and 15% to an Sporting Kansas City win.