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MLS · Regular Season - 16 July 17, 2026 02:30
St. Louis City
#6 · 38 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Sporting Kansas City
#15 · 15 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
S. Jeong 28'
M. Hartel (ast. S. Becher) 36'
E. Lowen 85' (pen.)
42' Capita
76' (ast. M. Garcia) D. Joveljic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 67% win probability (draw 17%, Sporting Kansas City 15%). The final result was St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas City. In 1 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Sporting Kansas City.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
3
2.51
Actual xG
0.98
1
Saves
3
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
6
15
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. Jeong
28'
⚽M. Hartel · ast. S. Becher
36'
42'
Capita⚽
↕ C. Wallem / Rafael Santos
46'
46'
J. Davis / I. James ↕
46'
E. Karic / J. Reid ↕
↕ S. Jeong / M. Perez
64'
75'
E. Bartlow / O. Blorian ↕
76'
ast. M. Garcia · D. Joveljic⚽
76'
K. Agyabeng / Z. Bassong ↕
78'
Capita
85'
S. Afrifa / Capita ↕
⚽E. Lowen (pen.)
85'
↕ T. Totland / J. Orozco
88'
↕ E. Lowen / T. Ostrak
88'
↕ S. Becher / P. Ault
90'+6
D. Edelman
90'+7
B. Lundt
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.07%
St. ←
17.79%
X
15.14%
Sporting
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 67.07% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
2.41
2.51
+0.1
Sporting
0.84
0.98
+0.14
St. Louis City dominated by xG (2.51 vs 0.98). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 23 46
2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 24 43
3 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 25 40
4 FC Dallas FC Dallas 24 40
5 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 24 38
6 St. Louis City St. Louis City 24 38
7 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 24 32
8 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 24 32
9 San Diego San Diego 24 30
10 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 23 29
11 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 24 29
12 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 25 29
13 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 22 27
14 Austin Austin 24 26
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 23 15
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-3
39 B. Lundt B. Lundt G 6.00
21 D. Polvara D. Polvara D 7.70
32 T. Baumgartl T. Baumgartl D 7.00
5 L. MacNaughton L. MacNaughton D 6.60
14 T. Totland T. Totland 88' M 6.90
24 D. Edelman D. Edelman M 7.20
10 E. Löwen E. Löwen 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.20
6 C. Wallem C. Wallem 45' M 6.00
17 M. Hartel M. Hartel 1 ⚽ F 8.30
11 S. Becher S. Becher 1 👟 F 6.90
77 Jeong Sang-Bin Jeong Sang-Bin 1 ⚽ 64' F 8.00
Bench
31 Christian Olivares Christian Olivares G
27 F. Fall F. Fall D
99 J. Orozco J. Orozco 11' D 6.30
22 Kyle Hiebert Kyle Hiebert D
59 M. Joyner M. Joyner M
28 M. Perez M. Perez 35' M 6.20
29 Palmer Ault Palmer Ault 3' M
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos 54' D 6.50
7 T. Ostrák T. Ostrák 11' M 6.60
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 4-2-3-1
30 S. Cleveland S. Cleveland G 7.00
99 Jayden Reid Jayden Reid 45' D 6.30
5 O. Blorian O. Blorian 75' D 6.30
15 Jansen Miller Jansen Miller D 5.90
2 Ian James Ian James 45' D 6.00
22 Zorhan Bassong Zorhan Bassong 76' M 7.20
4 L. Johnsen L. Johnsen M 6.60
11 Calvin Harris Calvin Harris M 6.50
6 Manu García Manu García 1 👟 M 7.20
7 Capita Capita 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.20
9 D. Joveljić D. Joveljić 1 ⚽ F 7.30
Bench
23
E. Bartlow 24' D 6.70
18 E. Karić E. Karić 54' D 6.60
8 Jacob Davis Jacob Davis 54' M 6.60
16 J. Bartlett J. Bartlett D
1 J. Pulskamp J. Pulskamp G
20 K. Agyabeng K. Agyabeng 23' M 6.60
14 Macielo Tschantret Macielo Tschantret M
93 M. Suleymanov M. Suleymanov F
17 S. Afrifa S. Afrifa 14' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
M. Hartel
M. Hartel
F · St.
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots · 35 pass
Jeong Sang-Bin
Jeong Sang-Bin
F · St.
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 17 pass
D. Polvara
D. Polvara
D · St.
7.70
· 65 pass
D. Joveljić
D. Joveljić
F · Sporting
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 16 pass
D. Edelman
D. Edelman
M · St.
7.20
· 66 pass
E. Löwen
E. Löwen
M · St.
7.20
1 ⚽
4 shots · 46 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Lundt G 99 6.00 — — — 23 15% — 1 —
D. Polvara D 99 7.70 — — — 65 56% 5 — —
T. Baumgartl D 99 7.00 — — — 63 61% 2 — —
L. MacNaughton D 99 6.60 — — 1 65 56% 3 — —
T. Totland M 88 6.90 — — 1 26 21% — — —
D. Edelman M 99 7.20 — — — 66 58% 1 1 —
E. Löwen M 88 7.20 1 — 4 46 42% — — —
C. Wallem M 45 6.00 — — — 28 24% — — —
M. Hartel F 99 8.30 1 — 3 35 26% — — —
S. Becher F 96 6.90 — 1 3 20 15% — — —
Jeong Sang-Bin F 64 8.00 1 — 2 17 15% 1 — —
J. Orozco D 11 6.30 — — — 4 1% 1 — —
M. Perez M 35 6.20 — — — 12 9% 1 — —
Palmer Ault M 3 — — — — — — — — —
Rafael Santos D 54 6.50 — — — 11 11% — — —
T. Ostrák M 11 6.60 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Cleveland G 99 7.00 — — — 25 17% — — —
Jayden Reid D 45 6.30 — — — 20 16% 4 — —
O. Blorian D 75 6.30 — — — 30 22% 1 — —
Jansen Miller D 99 5.90 — — — 30 25% 1 — —
Ian James D 45 6.00 — — — 22 18% — — —
Zorhan Bassong M 76 7.20 — — — 40 33% 2 — —
L. Johnsen M 99 6.60 — — — 69 61% 1 — —
Calvin Harris M 99 6.50 — — 1 26 18% 2 — —
Manu García M 99 7.20 — 1 — 37 27% 2 — —
Capita M 85 7.20 1 — 2 13 11% 1 1 —
D. Joveljić F 99 7.30 1 — 2 16 13% — — —
E. Bartlow D 24 6.70 — — — 6 6% 2 — —
E. Karić D 54 6.60 — — — 23 19% 2 — —
Jacob Davis M 54 6.60 — — 2 35 29% 2 — —
K. Agyabeng M 23 6.60 — — — 17 14% 1 — —
S. Afrifa F 14 6.70 — — — 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
The final score was St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas City.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
The model assigned 67% probability to a St. Louis City win, 17% to a draw, and 15% to an Sporting Kansas City win.