MLS
· Regular Season - 16
July 17, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
S. Jeong
28'
M. Hartel
(ast. S. Becher)
36'
E. Lowen
85'
(pen.)
42'
Capita
76'
(ast. M. Garcia)
D. Joveljic
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 67% win probability (draw 17%, Sporting Kansas City 15%). The final result was St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas City.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
6
Shots on target
3
2.51
Actual xG
0.98
1
Saves
3
53%
Possession
47%
5
Corners
6
15
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽S. Jeong
28'
⚽M. Hartel
· ast. S. Becher
36'
42'
Capita⚽
C. Wallem
/ Rafael Santos
46'
46'
J. Davis
/
I. James
46'
E. Karic
/
J. Reid
S. Jeong
/ M. Perez
64'
75'
E. Bartlow
/
O. Blorian
76'
ast. M. Garcia ·
D. Joveljic⚽
76'
K. Agyabeng
/
Z. Bassong
78'
Capita
85'
S. Afrifa
/
Capita
⚽E. Lowen
(pen.)
85'
T. Totland
/ J. Orozco
88'
E. Lowen
/ T. Ostrak
88'
S. Becher
/ P. Ault
90'+6
D. Edelman
90'+7
B. Lundt
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.07%
St. ←
17.79%
X
15.14%
Sporting
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City)
67.07%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.41
2.51
+0.1
0.84
0.98
+0.14
St. Louis City dominated by xG (2.51 vs 0.98).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
39
Benjamin Lundt
G
Benjamin Lundt
G
21
Dante Polvara
D
Dante Polvara
D
32
Timo Baumgartl
D
Timo Baumgartl
D
5
Lukas MacNaughton
D
Lukas MacNaughton
D
14
Tomas Totland
88'
M
Tomas Totland
88'
M
24
Daniel Edelman
M
Daniel Edelman
M
10
Eduard Löwen
1 ⚽
88'
M
Eduard Löwen
1 ⚽
88'
M
6
Conrad Wallem
45'
M
Conrad Wallem
45'
M
17
Marcel Hartel
1 ⚽
F
Marcel Hartel
1 ⚽
F
11
Simon Becher
1 👟
F
Simon Becher
1 👟
F
77
Jeong Sang-bin
1 ⚽
64'
F
Jeong Sang-bin
1 ⚽
64'
F
Bench
31
Christian Olivares
G
Christian Olivares
G
27
Fallou Fall
D
Fallou Fall
D
99
Jaziel Orozco
11'
D
Jaziel Orozco
11'
D
22
Kyle Hiebert
D
Kyle Hiebert
D
28
Miguel Perez
35'
M
Miguel Perez
35'
M
59
Mykhi Joyner
M
Mykhi Joyner
M
29
Palmer Ault
3'
M
Palmer Ault
3'
M
20
Rafael Santos
54'
D
Rafael Santos
54'
D
7
Tomáš Ostrák
11'
M
Tomáš Ostrák
11'
M
30
Stefan Cleveland
G
Stefan Cleveland
G
99
Jayden Reid
45'
D
Jayden Reid
45'
D
5
Or Blorian
75'
D
Or Blorian
75'
D
15
Jansen Miller
D
Jansen Miller
D
2
Ian James
45'
D
Ian James
45'
D
22
Zorhan Bassong
76'
M
Zorhan Bassong
76'
M
4
Lasse Berg Johnsen
M
Lasse Berg Johnsen
M
11
Calvin Harris
M
Calvin Harris
M
6
Manu García
1 👟
M
Manu García
1 👟
M
7
Capita
1 ⚽
85'
M
Capita
1 ⚽
85'
M
9
D. Joveljić
1 ⚽
F
D. Joveljić
1 ⚽
F
Bench
18
Emir Karić
54'
D
Emir Karić
54'
D
23
Ethan Bartlow
24'
D
Ethan Bartlow
24'
D
16
Jacob Bartlett
D
Jacob Bartlett
D
8
Jacob Davis
54'
M
Jacob Davis
54'
M
1
John Pulskamp
G
John Pulskamp
G
20
Kwaku Agyabeng
23'
M
Kwaku Agyabeng
23'
M
14
Macielo Tschantret
M
Macielo Tschantret
M
93
Shapi Suleymanov
F
Shapi Suleymanov
F
17
Stephen Afrifa
14'
F
Stephen Afrifa
14'
F
Best on the pitch
Marcel Hartel
F · St.
8.30
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 35 pass
Jeong Sang-bin
F · St.
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 17 pass
Dante Polvara
D · St.
7.70
· 65 pass
D. Joveljić
F · Sporting
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 16 pass
Zorhan Bassong
M · Sporting
7.20
· 40 pass
Daniel Edelman
M · St.
7.20
· 66 pass
St. Louis City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Lundt | G | 99 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Dante Polvara | D | 99 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 65 | 56% | 5 | — | — |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 63 | 61% | 2 | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 99 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 56% | 3 | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | M | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 66 | 58% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Eduard Löwen | M | 88 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 4 | 46 | 42% | — | — | — |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 45 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Marcel Hartel | F | 99 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 3 | 35 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 96 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Jeong Sang-bin | F | 64 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | 35 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Palmer Ault | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Santos | D | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Tomáš Ostrák | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
Sporting Kansas City — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Cleveland | G | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 25 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Jayden Reid | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 4 | — | — |
| Or Blorian | D | 75 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Jansen Miller | D | 99 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Ian James | D | 45 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Zorhan Bassong | M | 76 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Lasse Berg Johnsen | M | 99 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 69 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| Calvin Harris | M | 99 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Manu García | M | 99 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 37 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Capita | M | 85 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 13 | 11% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Joveljić | F | 99 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Emir Karić | D | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Ethan Bartlow | D | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | 2 | — | — |
| Jacob Davis | M | 54 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Kwaku Agyabeng | M | 23 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Stephen Afrifa | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
The final score was St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas City.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
The model assigned 67% probability to a St. Louis City win, 17% to a draw, and 15% to an Sporting Kansas City win.